Claude Fable 5.2 and Mythos 5.2 (anthropic.com)

786 pointsby lairva day ago924 comments

mirmor23 3 hours ago

> As an experiment, one Anthropic engineer gave Fable 5.2 the task of designing a prototype operating system. Starting from an empty folder, the model coordinated over 1,000 subagents, working around the clock for eight days writing, testing, and reviewing code. It produced a working operating system that boots on a laptop, with its own core that runs the machine, drivers for the disk, keyboard, and network, permanent file storage, windows, a login screen, an installer, and built-in Claude functionality (see the video below).

As impressive as this sounds, whether it is tech teams or agent farms, the progress slows down considerably as the codebase grows. The real pain was seldom about shipping v1, but was more about how the v8 scales and how easy it is to get there, how robust the system remains between versions, and how constraints are held.

A huge part of the challenge is to pick/choose the design and implementation strategy that can only come from experience. That is one of the primary reasons why it's an absurd advice to me to let the llm do the goalseek and freestyle. This may be a no big deal on microservice or any managed runtime software that is an update away, but on an embedded or a high availability system where the field upgrade and hardware replacement costs could bankrupt a business.

if llm designed a circuit, will you bankroll it?

anilakar 3 hours ago

I thought the recommendation was to not plan for scalability but rewrite every time your user base grows tenfold. I'm only half-joking here :-)

cj9 3 hours ago

This makes sense in a way; why design for potential future growth in an environment of fast-paced technological and business development, bringing greater risk?

It seems the problem is the solution, and vice versa.

kooi 16 minutes ago

We had DRY for a long time. Now it's sloppy wet

doctoboggan 14 minutes ago

This is something I've been thinking about more and more. Since Opus 5.5 came out, I feel we've crested the hill and the answer for "who's going to maintain this slop going forward" is obvious - the LLMs will. Whether or not its slop, is extensible, maintainable, or forward looking almost doesn't matter anymore. Does it solve the problem today? If so ship it, and use the agents to solve the future problems. I am not quite sure this is a good idea, but assuming LLM progress doesn't stop means its probably the bet I would take.

I watch a YouTuber who is homesteading and builds everything. Often times I see him doing things in ways I know will break or fail eventually, but it doesn't matter because he is there and will fix it when it does. You could argue this is a waste of energy, and for a human it might be. For an LLM however I do not think it is.

mexicocitinluez 2 hours ago

There's been some discussion around Shopify (and others) move from React Native to purely native and that leading some people to conclude that LLMs have effectively killed RN. Which has always seemed silly to me for 2 reasons: First, Shopify almost certainly has on staff (or access to) actual native devs to steer that ship that a small/medium-sized company may not have. But more importantly, it's not the "Translate this RN app into native" that's the trouble. It's the hundreds and thousands of additional iterations you'll have to do on top to maintain and build out that product.

It's hard keeping separate code bases with separate languages in tandem, and while LLMs definitely aid in that area, I can't imagine it's a free lunch.

bilalq 2 hours ago

They also seem to be ignoring the realities of modern app store reviews. Apple and Google are only getting slower as vibe-coded apps flood their marketplaces with submissions. Maybe Shopify has a special relationship that gets them faster reviews, I don't know. But if not, the ability to put out updates, rollbacks, and hotfixes without being gatekept is a critical feature. Especially with today's security landscape. React Native now seems more compelling than ever before.

user43928 an hour ago

From what I heard, updates for many established developers, even individuals, go through within a few hours.

I'd also love the ability to take back control over my rollouts, but with Apple's recent crackdown on remote controlled feature flags in response to fraudulent nudification apps, I'd be very careful about this.

Rumors say Apple now uses heuristics to detect feature flags in the binary. While that's not directly relevant to remotely delivered JS, I fear that bypassing App Review in this way could become a quick ticket to account termination.

jdelman 19 minutes ago

What makes you think you can circumvent the App Store to update React Native apps?

atonse an hour ago

We moved one of our apps away from RN to SwiftUI and Android (Jetpack Compose). The binaries are way smaller, and the apps work beautifully.

So I don't see any reason to stick to RN, when we can just use any OS native APIs to our heart's content and our apps automatically feel more native.

api an hour ago

While this unattended example is impressive, this is why you need to guide things more closely and make sure the design is itself scalable and maintainable. Otherwise you can get wad-o-slop.

Same thing happens in many cases with junior or mid-tier programmers slung at a project without supervision.

embedding-shape an hour ago

> While this unattended example is impressive, this is why you need to guide things more closely and make sure the design is itself scalable and maintainable. Otherwise you can get wad-o-slop.

Indeed, I'm curious how much better/worse one human with "one agent" could do that same functionality in a OS from scratch. Last time I did this exercise, I took Cursor's shitty attempt from "millions of lines of source code" to about ~20K (https://emsh.cat/en/one-human-one-agent-one-browser/), and seemingly one of my conclusions still hold true ~1 year later:

> One human using one agent seems far more effective than one human using thousands of agents

postalcoder 20 hours ago

I’ve had a chance to use fable 5.2. Some observations:

- Anthropic is finally well balanced across models. Meaning: Opus 5.5 is so good that I do not feel Fable FOMO as I did when it was Fable 5/5.1 vs Opus 4.8/5. And Sonnet 5.5 sometimes makes me forget about Opus.

- Fable is good, but you really have to push the ambition of your prompt in order to see proper separation from Opus 5.5. I personally have a hard time telling the difference between Fable 5.2 and Opus 5.5 for ordinary coding tasks.

- It’s way faster and more reliable: one of the worst things about fable 5.1 was how slow it was an, on top of that, how frequently it would suffer from max output token overflows. I got none of these issues with 5.2.

- Fable is exceptional at drawing. It’s ability to render an image with JavaScript actually has me questioning the value of dedicated image models. I prefer the images I’ve gotten fable/opus to make for me over those from gpt-image, it’s wild to think we’re at this point.

hungryhobbit 20 hours ago

And none of it matters ... because just as soon as you are happy with things "balanced across models" Anthropic will nerf the models you were happy with, and force you to use new and more expensive ones.

wolttam 20 hours ago

> Fable is good, but you really have to push the ambition of your prompt in order to see proper separation from Opus 5.5.

I love seeing this verbalized. We are pretty much at the point that increased model capability will only have utility to folks that are willing to let go of even more understanding of whatever the model is producing.

The best models can/will produce a year's worth of output that would take several days to weeks to properly understand in the span of an afternoon.

For everyone that still wants to feel like they own the end result, just use the lesser models with less ambitious tasks.

Caveat: I think this mainly applies to coding. I would still like the best models possible to be working on e.g. new drug research to cure our various ailments.

bobson381 19 hours ago

When you get good enough headphones, you can start to hear the limitations of the equipment stuff was recorded on. I wonder if this is like that

ftchd 12 hours ago

I wonder if it's like this:

https://www.tomshardware.com/speakers/in-a-blind-test-audiop...

asimovDev 9 hours ago

this is about cables which often were and still are snake oil in the audiophile world. headphones do make a difference. I have a hard time using my airpods and others after experiencing a pair of Sennheiser HD650 I've gotten myself as a christmas present couple years ago

bobson381 2 hours ago

yeah lamp cable will work. There's no room factor in a speaker so like 99 percent of the quality of the sound comes from the fidelity of the transducer and its resonance characteristics in electrical/physical suspension. Then the next .9 percent is from the source equipment, and finally the last .1 percent is from the dac/amp stuff. Exaggeration here but not really

0c3ca83 14 hours ago

> We are pretty much at the point that increased model capability will only have utility to folks that are willing to let go of even more understanding of whatever the model is producing.

Given that reading someone else's code is slower than understanding your own code, doesn't that basically cover everyone that adopted coding agents?

msdz 13 hours ago

If you liked this phrasing as much as I did, here’s an article that might resonate a lot with you:

https://danluu.com/ambitious/

In particular, footnote eight:

> This is not a claim about the future. Perhaps almost all or perhaps even all of the software skills I have will become irrelevant in the near future. But we're not there yet. At the moment, programming skills seem higher leverage than ever before.

> There's something a bit funny about the current moment, where it seems like having the skills that models are replacing makes one much more effective than people who are trying to use models without having those skills. I like Max Bittker's framing that models are very good at counterfeiting and the level of expertise it takes to distinguish a counterfeit from the real thing has been increasing as models improve.

As well as this section fairly at the start:

> As far as I can tell, these problems are problems because people are implicitly carrying around a pre-agentic cost model. Ten years ago, the kind of person who implemented a new compiler because their compiler was slow was the kind of person who started programming a new 3d game engine when they wanted to make an indie game, i.e., the kind of person who never ships anything. Most productive programmers I know still have an aversion to this kind of thing, even though it is now actually reasonable to implement this kind of thing now.

Of course, at the moment everything’s still a bit very much difficult to tell, but “productivity”, at least in applicable areas of work, might really come down to who can let go of the most understanding the easiest? Incredibly thought-provoking stuff.

bmitc 13 hours ago

> Of course, at the moment everything’s still a bit very much difficult to tell, but “productivity”, at least in applicable areas of work, might really come down to who can let go of the most understanding the easiest? Incredibly thought-provoking stuff.

I cannot see it being a good thing to "let go" of understanding. If you don't understanding anything, then why would anyone keep you around? An example hypothetical situation is, if I have a colleague that outputs a bunch of productive things, but they don't understand it, and I do, then of what use are they? I have LLMs too and also have the understanding.

It isn't clear to me why people are so comfortable with letting go of understanding. And it's a bit bizarre because it always seems to be framed as "you're going to get left behind if you care about understanding". I also never hear or read anyone who has any real and deep experience say these things.

monster_truck 13 hours ago

You're misinterpreting what they mean as understanding and inserting your own doomer definition where this imagined person has been stripped of all ability to investigate a result or ask questions.

I too love to downvote and edit instead of admitting that I'm talking and acting in a way where nobody would want to be my coworker anyways. Where exactly are you demonstrating that you're doing anything to justify being kept around if that's such a big concern for you?

arcticbull 13 hours ago

> It isn't clear to me why people are so comfortable with letting go of understanding.

It really does feel like people have embraced rolling around in the cognitive version of those Wall-E chairs.

dumbfounder 11 hours ago

I like to build software products. I don’t like to build software, but it’s the only way to build software products.

wedidthough 10 hours ago

“Understanding” is quite an overloaded word.

Understanding architecture, robustness, the “crumple zones” of a system? I’m all for it.

Taking three days to “understand” how postgres transactions work under the hood for your generic SaaS? Uh..

I have seen a lot(!) of the last type of “understanding” and it’s infuriating. The same types will often not understand the business, its stakeholders, the architectural constraints beyond the technical, etc. Understanding takes many forms.

fullofideas 12 hours ago

My read of what is being suggested is that the level at which one should aim to understand and be comfortable with is slightly more abstract than reading the code and reviewing every line of it. It is like how one is comfortable not understanding the byte-level code or assembly language code. I know that this analogy doesn’t hold very well because compilation is a deterministic process while llms are not, but that is precisely the point being made. “Trust” that llm will produce the right output, even though the output might not be reproducible word for word the next time you give the same prompt.

To your point about becoming redundant without understanding, not understanding things will be a problem when an issue arises and the other person isnt able to handle it the right way. However, if llm can address the issue, does the fact that they did not understand the details really matter? From the perspective of a person who gets to decide who gets fired, would they fire someone who is productive but sometimes introduces bugs that they quickly address or would they fire someone who is comparatively slow but rarely introduces bugs? The answer probably depends on the domain, and how costly a bug can be. For most of us, the work is not so critical that you cannot afford bugs. So, productivity wins.

brabel 9 hours ago

> comparatively slow but rarely introduces bugs

If you are suggesting humans before LLMs rarely introduced bugs, you probably haven’t got the latest models to review your old code. It’s shocking how many bugs we had before but couldn’t see!

xscott 12 hours ago

Don't shoot the messenger, but maybe the idea is this:

You're smart, and you know what can go wrong, so you use models slowly, and you check their work. Your bet is that it will make a bad mistake.

Your coworker is reckless, they don't know or care what can go wrong, so they use models quickly. Their bet is that the model won't make a bad mistake.

If the model doesn't make a bad mistake, your coworker is creating more value to your employer, and your employer doesn't really care if you understand the code. They just want something that works.

Over the last year, it sure seems like models are making less mistakes, so the expectations on the bets are changing too.

Forgeties79 11 hours ago

Right or wrong is this the future we want? Shouldn’t we say and do something?

For instance: we have calculators. We’ve had them for decades in their “current” form more or less. They are readily accessible and far more reliable than LLM’s - if you a problem 1000 times it’ll be right 1000 times, the rare bug or glitch notwithstanding. But we still teach people basic arithmetic. We teach times tables. We didn’t just offload basic math.

I agree we don’t need to know assembly to use a computer but there is a balance here and companies do not care about a balance.

wedidthough 10 hours ago

Adults can, under most circumstances, do some limited slow arithmetic but are generally piss-poor at it, notwithstanding the occasional rainman, and only rely on it in trivial matters.

You see cashiers summing groceries? Salary calculations on paper? Tax, inventory, accounting, you name it? Nobody does any of it by hand.

We most definitely offloaded basic math.

Forgeties79 3 hours ago

I didn’t say we were universally good at it but in many countries we are (more or less) all exposed to it and taught it in school. There is a baseline even if we are far from mastery, and frankly a cynical hand wave of “well everyone’s bad at it” is not a real argument. In the US it is very clear that people are at least exposed to it and if we weren’t we would be operating very differently. I went to dinner last night, everyone did the tips in their head right there at the table. The average person can do some simple multiplication and division in their head. It’s not a mysterious script done on a box that they repeat the output of. Most people even if they’re bad at it understand the fundamental concept and, gun to their head, could probably do a series of very basic math problems with pencil and paper.

I imagine you and most of your peers can calculate a tip or at least approximate it without pulling out their phones yes?

booty 3 hours ago

I think we mostly DID offload basic math, for better or worse.

For software engineering I don't know the right balance.

I've used the "we mostly stopped caring about machine code generated by a compiler; maybe we should stop caring about LLM-generated code as well?" analogy myself.

But even I have to admit there's two big holes in that analogy: if I use a compiler to turn C into machine code... (a) compiler bugs are orders of magnitude rarer than LLM-generated bugs (b) my C code remains the source of truth, or at least source of intent. Whereas with LLM-generated vibecode, there's no source of truth, just an ever-evolving mudball. I (kinda?) like the ideas of "documentation as source of truth" and/or "tests as source of truth" ideas, but I don't think we're nearly at the point of viability.

TL;DR yeah I think actual understanding of what LLMs produce is gonna be important for the forseeable future

jrowen 11 hours ago

I feel like the real value is in probing the extents of your own understanding. If you don't understand something it's doing, you can ask. You do kind of move up a level of abstraction, from the IC to a PM or team lead. So maybe you don't know what every line of code does but if you understand code and how to drive you can trust that it's doing the right thing and you don't have to be as deep in the weeds of every refactor etc.

You do have to keep a sense of when it did the wrong thing and how that was a valid interpretation of what you asked and how to better specify what you want. But that's how it really just shows you the gaps in your own understanding of a problem.

Also I think there's huge differences to the kinds of tasks and workloads people are throwing at it, leading to wildly different perspectives, but everyone's talking about the same "Fable".

catlifeonmars 10 hours ago

> Also I think there's huge differences to the kinds of tasks and workloads people are throwing at it, leading to wildly different perspectives, but everyone's talking about the same "Fable".

This right here. Humans are really prone to over indexing on a handful of personal experiences vs a representative sample. And once someone has formed an opinion, confirmation bias helps cement it, despite evidence to the contrary. Reality is probably somewhere in the middle.

jrowen 10 hours ago

That's where I think benchmarks are a huge red herring. Everyone wants a simple performance evaluation of a repetitive task but that's missing the point entirely IMO. Just try talking to it, asking questions. I spend so much time just reading responses. I have to like really think about how to specify the question I'm asking, fire it off, and I often can't wait to see what it says and what I'll learn. How anyone thinks it's making us dumber is crazy to me...you're missing out if you're just trying to offload thinking.

lodovic 10 hours ago

This is just moving to a higher level of abstraction. Nowadays people don't verify the compiler generated assembly code anymore. We don't care if our source generates a few million extra instructions. Source code is just an intermediate between specs and binary at an abstraction level decided by the developer. We do requirements -> code -> assembly.

To resolve this we should aim for a new intermediate format that is more high level than source code, the generated code is too monotonic to properly review manually. Something like requirements -> detailed specs for llm -> code -> assembly . Then let one agent implement the specs and have another review it. If we stay at the current abstraction level, humans become the major bottleneck.

sabas123 8 hours ago

I think your hypothetical is incomplete. What if the person that lets go, generates more productive things then somebody understands? In this case I know a lot of ppl will value the producer of value more. I always pushed the bounds of learning more about the underlying stack or problem, and always found them in no time.

msdz 7 hours ago

> If you don't understanding anything, then why would anyone keep you around?

They don’t keep you around, of course. The better these models become, the worse the human job markets get, I’d predict.

michaelchisari 12 hours ago

| the level of expertise it takes to distinguish a counterfeit from the real thing has been increasing as models improve

This is Bainbridge's 1982 paper Ironies of Automation restated.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ironies_of_Automation

https://ckrybus.com/static/papers/Bainbridge_1983_Automatica...

wrasee 5 hours ago

From the abstract

> This paper suggests that the increased interest in human factors among engineers reflects the irony that the more advanced a control system is, so the more crucial may be the contribution of the human operator

Makes sense.

hnarn 5 hours ago

Does it? Couldn’t you steelman this argument and claim the opposite, that the more advanced a control system, the more likely it is that human error is what causes its malfunction?

rafabulsing an hour ago

Those don't seem like mutually exclusive statements to me. In fact, they feel like two sides of the same coin. It's almost by definition that more advanced control systems are exactly the ones where tractable sources of error (mechanical, environmental, etc) have been eliminated, controlled or otherwise accounted for as much as possible, to the point that the only remaining likely problems come from where the system interfaces with humans in some way.

Which makes those interfaces the most critical parts of the system.

chasd00 an hour ago

> the level of expertise it takes to distinguish a counterfeit from the real thing has been increasing as models improve

Model produced code compiles the same as human produced code. My kids would call this “copium”.

dataflow 12 hours ago

> I like Max Bittker's framing that models are very good at counterfeiting and the level of expertise it takes to distinguish a counterfeit from the real thing has been increasing as models improve.

Is it just me or is this analogy completely missing the point of why we care about detecting counterfeits in the first place? Poor craftsmanship of all things is not really the reason counterfeiting is illegal!

Forgeties79 11 hours ago

Beat me to it. It’s wild this needs to be said.

komali2 10 hours ago

I'm struggling to understand the hypocrisy of private property advocates advocating against private property. Are we doing "intellectual property is protected by law" or not? We're allowed to ingest all of human FOSS and StackOverflow without attribution and use it to sell distilled human knowledge by the token, but not use the distilled human knowledge to reverse engineer and FOSSify proprietary software? We're allowed to ingest all the art on Twitter and use it to generate and sell corporate clip art without attribution, but we're not allowed to generate micky mouse/bugs bunny yaoi fanart?

I mean, the answer is obvious: the Luddites were right, these tools (not just LLMs but private property, copyright, and capitalist mechanisms) are only tolerated to exist so long as they serve the needs of Capital, but the hypocrisy still frustrates me.

muddi900 10 hours ago

I will bookmark this comment. It is a very clear summarization of what is happening.

ct520 8 hours ago

Hah - same I screenshotted it. Ooof , put into words what’s been silently ruminating in the back of my head.

msdz 7 hours ago

> these tools […] are only tolerated to exist so long as they serve the needs of Capital, but the hypocrisy still frustrates me.

Great thought. Question is, can those who do the tolerating (in the interest of capital) even effectively prohibit/prevent access after a certain point, especially now that the cat is not just underway, but well out of the bag?

Assuming the current trajectory of a yearly factor of 10–100 in size/cost reduction [0] holds up, won’t the technology just become cheap enough to be functionally available to everyone?

[0] https://jyn.dev/tokens-too-cheap-to-meter/

komali2 an hour ago

My assumption is that frontier models will be constantly increasing in intelligence, solving far more difficult problems, while the rest of us do the LLM equivalent of scratching through the dirt with wooden hoes.

Thinking about just the domain of the stock market only: getting a "win" on it means getting a leg up on everyone else participating. Best example I can think of of a pure zero sum intelligence contest. Programming UIs might have a point where you just can't get smarter at it, but in an intelligence contest like a stock market, I don't think there's a ceiling.

In "Accelerando" this was covered by the invention of "Economics 2.0." AI agents also got into a lot of lawfare in that book.

Gormo 3 hours ago

> I'm struggling to understand the hypocrisy of private property advocates advocating against private property. Are we doing "intellectual property is protected by law" or not?

The most rigorous "private property advocates" don't recognize intellectual property as a legitimate form of property in the first place: private property is a natural phenomenon that emerges as a solution to the problem of physical things being inherently exclusive in possession and use, and IP is a creation of positive law meant to artificially apply the methods for solving that problem to another, unrelated question that isn't part of the same problem domain.

> I mean, the answer is obvious: the Luddites were right, these tools (not just LLMs but private property, copyright, and capitalist mechanisms) are only tolerated to exist so long as they serve the needs of Capital, but the hypocrisy still frustrates me.

Abstract concepts don't have "needs", and no one is currently in a position to tolerate or not tolerate anything -- no one in particular is actually in control over anyone else's activities. The cat's out of the bag, and no one has any capacity to put it back in.

samudrijan 11 hours ago

Your argument in essence is productivity ~ not caring about the output. Which is sorta unhinged.

msdz 7 hours ago

Well, in retrospect I don’t like this framing all that much either, but I think I came to this conclusion due to assuming

not caring about the output ~ more output

… which may or may not be useful in the long term, but definitely does help a shorter-term “productivity” measure.

On the other hand though, there’s a pretty damning example against my case here: Say a manager of individual contributors – which is what the situation of an individual with sufficiently smart models and tooling may almost boil down to – didn’t directly care about the output anymore. We’d most likely call that being unhinged/unproductive, too…

It was late at night and I primarily wanted to link the somewhat relevant article, maybe I should have left everyone to reach their own conclusions instead of adding some poorly-worded unfinished thoughts. :x

musebox35 10 hours ago

>> Ten years ago, the kind of person who implemented a new compiler because their compiler was slow was the kind of person who started programming a new 3d game engine when they wanted to make an indie game, i.e., the kind of person who never ships anything. Most productive programmers I know still have an aversion to this kind of thing, even though it is now actually reasonable to implement this kind of thing now.

Then there is these other programmers who built their own operating systems even though their OS professors are claiming publicly their design sucks, who built a local database from scratch in C because his use case did not need the client/server stuff but just all the other relational goodies, or who built video streaming/transcoding software from scratch just because they have ideas and then the world changes around their ambitions.

I think it is not enough to be ambitious or have the technical ability if you want to build something for others to use. You definitely need deep commitment but also perseverance in the face of social adversity. I think this is what saddens people with automation of the technical aspects of programming. It leaves the more psychological aspects as challenges which are not easy to face all the time.

matwood 9 hours ago

> It leaves the more psychological aspects as challenges which are not easy to face all the time.

Great point. Coding used to be a natural forcing function for prioritization of features. When coding is basically “free” you have to do the harder job of saying no to things, deciding exactly what to build, etc…

ct520 8 hours ago

Yep - in a world where content is effortless and abundant, is less actually more?

I would say, yes!

Anon38 2 hours ago

> in a world where content is effortless and abundant, is less actually more?

Yes, if its less and good. Yes.

pjc50 4 hours ago

> who built their own operating systems even though their OS professors are claiming publicly their design sucks, who built a local database from scratch in C because his use case did not need the client/server stuff but just all the other relational goodies, or who built video streaming/transcoding software from scratch just because they have ideas and then the world changes around their ambitions

> perseverance in the face of social adversity

Sometimes you're Fabrice Bellard, sometimes you're Terry Davis. That is, for almost any idea you'll find random detractors, but some ideas really are generally useful and some are completely nuts. One of the negative externalities of AI is that bystanders are confronted with a lot more cases where they have to work out which one this thing is.

hypfer 8 hours ago

> but “productivity”, at least in applicable areas of work, might really come down to who can let go of the most understanding the easiest?

That is, genuinely, crazy talk. That is what addicts would say.

But it is intellectual-washed to sound like the most reasonable thing to say.

It is not. And there is nothing thought-provoking about the mere act of doing heroin.

There might be something in the system and mechanics that lead to people getting the idea to do that, though.

___

We can engage with these ideas and there might be some merit to them, but not with this frame. This frame will (not hyperbole) kill us all.

People will die due to (poorly-engineered) systems understood by no one, failing in completely incoherent and unexpected ways - and those people may be you or your loved ones.

msdz 7 hours ago

> That is, genuinely, crazy talk. That is what addicts would say.

I, well, agree. Of course the statement is nuts, especially so once you consider issues like vendor lock-in, the oncoming atrophy of one’s own skills, etc. But if you define “productivity” as short- to medium-term results only, is it really that inaccurate?

hypfer 7 hours ago

If you define a problem in a way that leaves out like 80% of the constraints, then solutions get trivial, yeah. That's I think the generalized way of phrasing this specific dysfunction of our industry.

The problem is that it still uses the and benefits of the legitimacy of the word of "productivity" there. Meaning that it is harmful to us to put it that way.

msdz 7 hours ago

Good point, not having to plan for the long term probably has an outsized effect on a given level of difficulty/effort required.

Maybe it’d be interesting to see what could be achieved responsibly by motivated people with models in a world without “feature pressure”/competitive stress (which’d include e.g. no security race and infinite attackers and exploits to keep up with)?

vonneumannstan 33 minutes ago

>>> but “productivity”, at least in applicable areas of work, might really come down to who can let go of the most understanding the easiest? >That is, genuinely, crazy talk. That is what addicts would say.

People demonstrably said the same thing about the inventions of... Writing! and Mechanical/Digital Calculators! Yet here we are!

Time is a flat circle!

mathgeek 4 hours ago

> Perhaps almost all or perhaps even all of the software skills I have will become irrelevant in the near future. But we're not there yet. At the moment, programming skills seem higher leverage than ever before.

While this iteration of technology certainly _feels_ different, it seems like for now we're still coming down to "it's useful to know how to build a car, but when you need to put food on the table, know how to fix it and make it do what you need it to do".

bobthegoggles 28 minutes ago

“might really come down to who can let go of the most understanding the easiest”

I suppose it depends on the “applicable areas of work” but I would argue the opposite. As in all things, when you level the playing field, in order to stand out you have to know the rules to understand how to break them.

Imagine a fully autonomous Ad agency that creates unique ad campaigns for companies. And have it controlled by someone who “let go of the most understanding.” For instance, maybe a business minded person with excellent technical skills, but doesn’t know how to copy-write and has no visual design training.

Even with the strides in AI advancement, this is an impossibility and I’d argue it won’t happen within the next five years even. You need human agency, and you need human workers who are experts in their field.

bmitc 13 hours ago

Hmmm, I took it the opposite way, actually.

There are many ambitious things I have tried to work with Opus 4.8 and Opus 5.5 on, and it just can't get there. It always falls back to some tried and true method or some valley that it gets stuck in. In those times, it was impossible to push it forward into more creative and exploratory thinking based upon my relatively advanced pushes and contextualizing. So I took the commenter's position that Fable 5.2 will respond better to that type of pushing. But that type of pushing actually means you know more than those who are happy enough using the lower models. So that seems like the opposite of what you said.

kragen 13 hours ago

I'm interested to hear about what kinds of things you've been trying and what the stuckness looks like.

ftchd 12 hours ago

The dev version of "I'll fix him"

kragen 12 hours ago

Are you saying that you're seeing stuckness of that form, or are you paraphrasing some kind of misunderstanding of my question?

kridsdale3 9 hours ago

It's a reference to a joke, of a stereotypical comment left on Romantic Relationships topic online forums. As in, "this man is so terribly unsuitable to everyone. But I'm special, and I can fix him and make him the perfect boyfriend."

kragen 7 hours ago

Sure, but it's unclear to me what its purported relevance is in this context.

bmitc 12 hours ago

They are generally things I don't particularly want to share, as I view them as ideas close to my heart. The general pattern was what felt like redirecting from the harder problems and an unwillingness, if we can call it that, to go there. In some sense though, it's hard to understand how these more advanced models get around that, because these models are tuned to the most probable answer. When you come at them with a novel idea, they always seem to water it down in the end.

svnt 11 hours ago

I have also found this — once you get out into some really novel workspaces they will revert back to replication of adjacencies that already exist. Fable 5 and 5.1 in particular will talk around the issue in a way that no model prior seemed to.

I think the issue is fairly fundamental, perhaps because of tuning, perhaps even beyond what they are tuned or trained on, because the bulk of what they can go find and ground into seems to drag them heavily toward implicit biases that split around categories I can’t quite discern. The category boundaries sometimes look like academic fields, but sometimes they seem like more fundamental attractors.

Roark66 2 hours ago

I second (third?) this. Previous models were more willing to explore the unknown. Those new ones just try to Google search and latch onto any adjacent solution they find.

kragen 11 hours ago

That's understandable. Thank you for sharing as much as you have.

Gareth321 6 hours ago

I'm closer to a Product Manager so I'm not sure how useful these examples will be for you.

One important constraint is this topic of intent (also referred to as alignment). Specifically, when a user requests a feature or change, there is MOUNTAINS of implied context and intent in their comment. Some cultural, religious, social, economic, base on work and personal experience, their use cases, their values, what they intend to get done, etc. Every time these models get smarter, they get a little better at understanding this context. It's combination of reasons. Some of it is parametric. Some is inferred. Some is about selecting the right data to examine and research. As these models get smarter, I spend less time time iterating and educating the model. They reach the intent faster and better.

From what I hear and experience, this is also true in the coding space. LLMs are basically another abstraction level on top of formal languages, which sit on top of compilers and machine code and etched instructions. Smaller and dumber models require a lot more hand holding to achieve the same results. They're less capable of inferring the gaps. Less capable of extrapolating potential negative outcomes of the change they're making. Less/less useful parametric knowledge. Less capable of selecting the right data to use to make the right decisions. They do what they're told.

This has been less of an issue for coders who religiously document, understand the codebase and architecture intimately, and demand to be kept in the loop on every change. So seniors often do not see the utility of smarter models. They know exactly what they want, how to ask, the context to provide, and how to assess if the change worked as expected. The utility is for the 99.9999% of the world which is not a senior developer.

kragen 5 hours ago

While what you say mostly rings true to me, I don't see how it could result in the valleys of stuckness I was asking about.

However, your statement that there are only 8300 senior developers in the world does not seem correct to me. That seems like an unreasonably high bar for that title.

Gareth321 5 hours ago

Maybe I should remove a 9. I meant to imply that there are a lot of people who benefit from smarter models.

kragen 5 hours ago

Maybe so, yes. It depends on your value system.

kragen 13 hours ago

If your objective was understanding rather than, say, getting a new operating system running, couldn't you use the stronger models to produce artifacts and then ask them (or weaker models) to explain those artifacts to you? Probably the stronger models would be able to produce artifacts that were more worthwhile to study.

Maggie Appleton suggests some ways that AI models could do a better job of communicating about artifacts to people in https://maggieappleton.com/planning-agents, although she's focused on the use case of the person deciding what changes in the artifact to request from the model.

wasabi991011 12 hours ago

Thanks for sharing that link btw, it was great! You should post it on HN for more people to see.

kragen 11 hours ago

Last time I submitted a link it was immediately flagged to death, although I have to use an Incognito mode tab to see that. I'm not wasting any more of my time on that.

gnabgib 11 hours ago

The only link you've ever submitted that disappeared was for linkedin.. which is a banned site. No one flagged it, HN just rejects it.

Someone found a better URL for that (Fabrice Bellard) story (16 points, 10 days later) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49996383

Unless there was another one you later deleted?

kragen 11 hours ago

That's the one, and it's one third of all the links I've ever posted, or, probably, will ever post. What you say may be true, but it was still immediately flagged to death, regardless of how that happened, and the HN software is still trying to be sneaky about it. If my contributions are treated as spam, I'm not going to persist.

zahlman 9 hours ago

Certain domains being blacklisted is completely understandable if you consider the history of the site and culture(s) of the users. It's nothing to do with it being "your contribution".

kragen 7 hours ago

That could be handled with an error message instead of assuming bad faith on my part. Given that it was handled (and continues to be handled) with sneaky shadowbanning measures, I have no interest in attempting to circumvent the spam filter by submitting future links.

47282847 2 hours ago

“Wasting time” by copy-pasting link title and url? Sounds excessively optimized time management to me. Save 10 minutes elsewhere, and you got 50+ submissions worth to spend!

Most submissions never receive any upvotes. They’re all “wasted” like that, even if not flagged.

gnabgib 11 hours ago

It's been posted 4 times in the last 2 months: https://hn.algolia.com/?q=maggieappleton.com%2Fplanning-agen... No comments though

wholinator2 11 hours ago

It very much applies to science as well. I've got a workflow doing an entire PhD's worth of work time in a single month subscription of $100 codex. There's zero chance i go through and understand what the hell it's doing, but for tackling problems which are accepted as "impossible" it's extremely useful for gathering data on every possible approach. It hasn't had a break through, but it's certainly recreated everything anyone's tried before.

snthpy 11 hours ago

Ok this point and pacing the frontier: personally i would be ok with freezing models at this point. Opus 5.5 does everything i need and i suspect that from this point onwards the improvements will be beyond my understanding and just introduce existential risk.

eldgfipo 7 hours ago

the cost per task still needs to fall by a 100x

pcollins123 4 hours ago

“Nobody will ever need more than 640kb of RAM”

discreteevent 7 hours ago

Google this: do not delegate understanding

You will find a lot of articles from before LLMs about not delegating understanding of your core system or business. You could say that the software is not your core business so you don't have to understand it. But if the software is any good then it should be taking care of a large part of the business. So software is your business and you shouldn't delegate understanding it.

dingdongditchme 6 hours ago

I like this and the warning it entails, on the flip side of this I have found that you need to be able to delegate and trust. If you demand on understanding everything and doing everything yourself the world will grind you down. It's a big place and sometimes it is OK to delegate what is not part of your core business it let's you focus on this. Not everybody needs to be able to cook 5-star meals, you should know how to heat up some pasta, but don't beat yourself up if you can't bake a cheese soufflé.

liendolucas 4 hours ago

> The best models can/will produce a year's worth of output that would take several days to weeks to properly understand in the span of an afternoon.

This is appalling. Are you really really going to trust a YEAR's output from a machine? Are you going to read and understand all that? Will you be able to maintain and extend it to your will? I truly doubt that. Drugs do harm and are hard to quit. Good luck.

vidarh 4 hours ago

I see this mindset a lot from people who I can only presume have only ever been individual contributors.

Having run teams, as much as I love getting into the details of code I care about, in the 30+ years I've been in this business, I've only ever even seen a tiny proportion of the code my teams rely on.

And the non-technical people in these businesses will have seen none of it.

They all take it on a combination of trust and verification of outcomes that the code does what the developers claim it does.

Increasingly we're getting to a point where the output from these machines are more trustworthy than an increasing proportion of human developers, and more importantly: Increasingly often good enough.

Especially as more and more of the code becomes throwaway.

I have a side-project that is profitable, and that is profitable only because I haven't needed to spend time reading the code. If the code turns out to be unmaintainable? Doesn't matter - it's so cheap code that it is reasonable to just throw it away, and start over based on the lessons learned. It enabled me to take an opportunity to profit I wouldn't have been able to profit from if I had to set aside time I didn't have, so even if it was to totally fail in the future as a result of issues with that code it doesn't matter.

As the cost of good enough code falls towards zero, how we think about which code matters and how much we need to understand it will fundamentally change.

Increasingly, a lot of code is even just part of a conversation with an agent to me. It's throwaway, for the duration of a session. Who cares if it lives on?

I don't trust or need to trust most of the code I build any more. I trust the measurable outputs. The verification pipelines we build. The feedback mechanisms we build. Those I need to read and understand.

That's no difference than when working with a team. The only thing that is different is failure rates. And at this point, for some thing the machine failure rates are still higher, for others it is lower.

Roark66 41 minutes ago

As one poster replied above, there is code one doesn't need to understand if what you care about works. A good example is when I first tried a couple of local AI models on my highly unusual inference hardware.

It ran like a dog. Few nights of running Fable (later Opus 5.5) with a 7 strong team of DeepSeek v4.1 Flash 1017 (don't mistake it with 0731 that is crap) and llama was running 10x faster and vllm was running even faster when before it would not work at all.

I've run similarity and needle tests and the results are exactly the same content wise. But 10x faster. I've relied on this for a month now and I'm pretty happy with how it runs.

Do I now need to learn CUDA Kernel programming to understand how it was done? I don't think so. It's for my personal use. Not for a paying client so no warranty is perfectly fine.

But I also use a lot of AI at work in an I dusty where people may die if the code is buggy. So I absolutely verify and understand everything.

There is a middle ground too. Understanding the architecture.

For example I used a bunch of DeepSeek models supervised by Qwen to build adaptive-acl. A pi coding agent plugin that deterministicly checks if every tool used by an ai during an agentic session matches user intent to give permissions for those actions (reading/writing data, network access etc), as a part of this plugin I run an llm, a classifier that runs over user's prompts and extracts these permission grants then saving them in a format deterministic layer can process.

The design includes massive number of assumptions and compromises. For example, if a user allows writing this implies permission to delete and reading if what was written etc.

The thing also includes over 4 thousand actual instances of tool use preceded by "permissions talk" from my live sessions and that whole collection can be run to test for regression etc.

At some point during one night the AI had a regression and decided the best way to resolve it would be to add regex based language processing elements to the deterministic layer (a huge no no, this has to work regardless of the user speak English or Swahili, also regexing natural language is a disaster waiting to happen).

I knew enough about the architecture to notice that and burn it out with a hot iron.

That is the problem with AI. It sometimes solves problems the easiest possible way causing massive issues for later. So if one uses it for important stuff it is good to understand the architecture and the plan of what it is going to build at the very least.

gwerbin 20 hours ago

Does Fable 5.2 outperform Opus for data science work?

Not just "iterate on this XGBoost model" but actually looking at a problem and designing and carrying out a short-term R&D program including probability modeling, model fitting diagnostics, how to respond to various kinds of results, how to interpret/reason about what it finds, etc. That's really where I saw all the models perform poorly, and where I saw the first big step increase from Opus 5 (pre-5.5) to Fable. But then Opus 5.5 came out and I haven't needed Fable since.

Mind you, I'm doing slightly different work (and I'm very much "in the loop" still) than when I performed that side-by-side test. But it's really amazing what Opus 5.5 can do. I now have a powerful data science AI assistant that not only can write any script I need it to (including some scripts I didn't even realize I needed), and it has an encyclopedic knowledge of everything ever, and it constantly checks me on oversights, it handily derives expressions and clever model reparameterizations that aid, it has great insight into model behavior, and it has an amazing ability come up with ad-hoc experiments and tests that would have taken me 2x as long to even think of (let alone implement by hand).

It's not at the scared-to-lose-my-job phase yet, but it's become a tremendous force multiplier for a smaller data team.

acbart 19 hours ago

I'm teaching "Data Science" to computer science majors next spring, and I'm overwhelmed by the prospect of what to teach them in the age of AI. It seems like Fable already way outperforms anything I could historically expect my students to do at the end of the semester, and perhaps even outperforms me. I can describe a vague analysis on the data, and it will handle every step: transformation, preliminary analysis, formulating more precise questions, creating visualizations, running statistical tests, interpreting results, thinking about stakeholders... And in some of those steps, it finds things that I might not have considered.

I wish I had a bigger N so I could rely on that experience a bit more, but it sure does feel like I'm not really contributing anything in terms of "Data Science expertise" in my own research right now.

estetlinus 19 hours ago

From my experience working with data scientists, it outperforms humans on an extreme level. I’ve seen so much bad data science, and here I have a model that can do all of that from one prompt. It is getting really good on finding caveats in data too.

agumonkey 17 hours ago

did you find tricks to turn LLMs into super-assistants so students can learn deeper ?

i also wonder if they're not losing motivation due to the fact that the llm can race through everything so swiftly

gwerbin 14 hours ago

If it wasn't for grinding all of the hard problems and hands-on projects and various programming tasks I had to do by hand over the years, I wouldn't be able to keep up with the agent, and wouldn't be able to get good results out of it, because I wouldn't know what it was doing and wouldn't be able to steer it appropriately. My schoolwork 15 years ago was more than formative, it remains critically foundational for my job work today.

Based on the other comment it sounds like maybe I need to give Fable another chance, and then I suppose I won't have to steer anything at all. But at the end of the day I am not paid to be a meat proxy, I am paid to deliver things for the business that employs me, and the things I deliver are my responsibility, not Anthropic's.

So I say, embrace AI as a learning tool, let students use it to bypass programming on assignments where the programming is of secondary importance, require oral defense/presentation for projects, make homework worth a much smaller fraction of final grade, and make all of your tests in-class and hand-written.

The reality is that the entire nature of education has to change to account for cheating becoming essentially free and virtually impossible to detect. Grinding through a problem set in the library is still tremendously important, but it's going to be harder to motivate students to do it without just cheating. Some students are conscientious and will do it anyway. Some won't. The hard part is going to be crafting curricula and exams that separate the two kinds of students. Fortunately you share that problem with just about every other professor in the world right now, so at least you shouldn't feel responsible for solving it all yourself.

Relevant anecdote: I used Wolfram Alpha to cheat on my calculus homework in freshman year, and then I got my butt kicked in the exam and a C final grade that never quite averaged its way out of my GPA. That felt horrible and it was a strong motivating force to get my shit together, but that's only because I'm a fucking nerd and I really cared about learning in school and making a career out of what I learned. On the other hand, I really was struggling with the material, which is why I tried cheating in the first place. Maybe if I had today's AI I could just ask it to help me learn better.

qazxcvbnmlp 14 hours ago

You need to teach your students why all of those are important and how to tell if the llm is giving them what they need.

alwa 13 hours ago

And especially where the fuzzy edges and blind spots are—the limitations of the methods, and the aspects of problems that are essential to the question but hard to quantify or test or reproduce.

I feel like a lot of people are going to put the same faith in their new quantitative superpowers as psychologists did in their 95% confidence intervals [0], and managers did in their “scientific management”/time-and-motion studies, and American political pollsters did in their 2016 presidential prognostications, and Rudder’s OKTrends blog (delightfully) did in calculating the answers to romance [1]…

[0] https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/basics/replication-crisis

[1] e.g. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35331762

destitude 14 hours ago

Plus it worries me that people will no longer know how to do anything basic and we will at some point in the future be slaves to AI if we aren't careful.

Myrmornis 12 hours ago

Is it reasonable to take up some of the class with statistical basics and intuition? E.g. you just referred to a bigger N; I don't know what level your students are but do they have a basic intuition for notions like "variance of estimator"? Or is that another class? I think my point is that even if they can nowadays press a button and have the most amazing reports and visualizations produced, that doesn't give anyone any actual understanding of the theoretical side of data science.

crimsoneer 6 hours ago

I'm so glad I learnt it before LLMs. I can't imaging trying to get good at Pandas/Polars coding nowdays when so much of my analysis is "Fable, please do this for me, k thx bye"

porker 19 hours ago

I mean I found Fable 5.1 outperformed Opus 5.5 for data science, so I expect 5.2 to.

But then I'm someone who hasn't found Opus 5.5 good for much beyond web UIs and related frontend development. I find it more forgetful than GPT-5.6 or 6.1 or Fable, so despite having a 1M context window it gets lost in a big codebase or goes of target. Opus 5.5 doesn't manage agents particularly well IMO.

I'm surrounded by people raving about Opus 5.5 and God only knows why I'm not getting their results.

gwerbin 12 hours ago

I just tried Fable 5.2 side-by-side with Opus 5.5 on the same prompt and I think you're right, n=1 but with strong signal.

Fable got right to the point, had cleaner/better responses and reasoning for its conclusions, got less distracted with secondary concerns, and still showed signs of the cleaner writing style compared to Opus, which improved a lot with 5.5 but can still be hard to parse sometimes.

I will keep using Opus for implementation tasks (e.g. building web apps to explore model predictions) but I think I'll try using Fable this week for the real DS stuff. Thanks!

vunderba 20 hours ago

> Fable is exceptional at drawing. It’s ability to render an image with JavaScript actually has me questioning the value of dedicated image models

I’ve been shifting away from using more traditional GenAI models in favor of just giving LLMs access to a custom drawing language (LOGO-like) to generate imagery and its been going shockingly well - Opus 5.5 in particular.

I put together a simple LLM driven skill that creates old adventure game (EGA) environments from simple pencil sketches and it works really well. And being procedural, they're much easier to make surgical changes to without degradation.

https://kq-styles.specr.net

MadameMinty 20 hours ago

Charming!

disqard 17 hours ago

Beautiful! Thank You For Making And Sharing!!

throwawayk7h 15 hours ago

Just to clarify -- the images on that site are all generated from LLM-written code? It's very impressive if so. I would never have guessed these weren't human-made from the visuals alone.

vunderba 15 hours ago

Yeah it's entirely LLM driven! If you look at the repo, I explain more about how to use it. Basically, you give an agentic coding harness capable of tool usage (Opus 5.5, Qwen 3.8-27b, etc) the skill which explains the drawing system: simple things like how to set the colors, position rectangles, draw polygons, etc. and it uses p5.js to render them.

It has three different modes:

• You can simply describe a picture, and it'll automatically generate an image using procedural code.

https://kq-styles.specr.net/#/scene/custom/elk-valley

• You can ask it to paint over an existing image. That's what those examples show, like me creating EGA-style equivalents of various scenes from the original Myst.

https://kq-styles.specr.net/#/scene/myst/r01-c00

• The last way is to give it a rough pencil sketch. It's the mode I use the most since it's very valuable when building an adventure game to position objects in a room.

https://kq-styles.specr.net/#/scene/sketches/12-crossroads

adventured 14 hours ago

That's very cool. Great concept.

WarmWash 13 hours ago

Really good stuff, thanks

pederbe 5 hours ago

Wow. Genuinely awesome work. And fascinating to see the drawing process.

vunderba 19 minutes ago

Thanks! I started this whole thing because I recalled reading an old interview with Sierra’s original creators, Ken and Roberta Williams, where they talked about how they needed a way to have graphics for their games without saving large bitmaps which would make it difficult to fit on a single floppy disk.

So instead for each room that needed to be rendered they just saved a series of vector instructions that would re-render it in real time. On slower machines, you could actually see the rooms pop in piece by piece. I wanted to kind of approximate that same aesthetic because it's just super cool!

akoboldfrying 15 hours ago

Do I understand correctly that the drawing language is something you came up with yourself? Amazing quality if so!

vunderba 15 hours ago

So basically I gave an LLM access to the user manual for the original LOGO drawing language, along with several screenshots of various scenes from the original King's Quest I.

Then I just guided it to produce a procedural variant specialized in creating new EGA-style scenes for use in creating old-school point-and-click adventure game.

https://people.eecs.berkeley.edu/~bh/usermanual

It's all open source.

https://github.com/scpedicini/agi-stylist

btown 14 hours ago

This is awesome! You can see the core of it here: https://github.com/scpedicini/agi-stylist/blob/main/skills/o...

zahlman 9 hours ago

Tell me more about your custom drawing language. I'd been thinking of doing one myself.

gabucino 9 hours ago

sir, Twin Kingdom Valley does exactly this on a ZX Spectrum

vunderba 10 minutes ago

Thanks for the rec! I unfortunately don't have a Speccy, but I did find an emulated version of the BBC Micro port of Twin Kingdom Valley and can definitely see it drawing in the various pieces of the environment.

https://bbcmicro.co.uk/game.php?id=89

I think the approach of using simple procedural vector graphics was relatively common back in the days when you had to optimize for either disk space or speed. Sierra's creators talked about how they opted for procedural graphics to fit their earliest games on the old 80 KB floppies.

Gareth321 6 hours ago

Oh boy this takes me back to the good old Sierra days.

tamat an hour ago

amazing, love the idea and the results <3

trcf23 19 hours ago

how do you use Fable for drawing? directly editing a .svg or through claude design/or something else?

postalcoder 19 hours ago

Tell it to draw a picture of something with JavaScript in the style you desire. No harness magic necessary. It helps to provide it with reference images.

Skidaddle 19 hours ago

Why JS specifically?

I personally have consistently been disappointed by any artwork/assets created by Fable and Opus, at least compared to Astra and Sol.

pcthrowaway 7 hours ago

I assume canvas, but I don't know.

ariwilson 19 hours ago

Your comment matches what I measured on 30 regular coding tasks: Fable 5.2 and Opus 5.5 both solved 26 (Fable 5.1 was at 25). Fable 5.2 finished in 0.62x the time of Fable 5.1 on the same tasks, with no runs hitting a safeguards stop (Fable 5.1 hit a lot of safeguard stops).

catlifeonmars 10 hours ago

Are these novel coding tasks, or could they have ended up in the training set?

Does the number/frequency of safeguard stops affect the measured speed?

ykl 18 hours ago

> It’s ability to render an image with JavaScript actually has me questioning the value of dedicated image models

The bitter lesson strikes again!

jerezzprime 15 hours ago

What sparks you to change models? Where in your workflow do you decide "this is a sonnet task" or "this is obviously a fable task"?

nijave 13 hours ago

Fable - anything requiring "thinking" or judgement--usually design and architecture

Opus - smart execution (most coding, knowledge work)

Sonnet - dumb execution (basic coding, generic text/organization/information tasks)

Haiku - really only reason is lack of auto mode becomes tedious. I only use it indirectly with sub agent delegation for text analysis (summarize web page, document). However, it's quite fast and capable

jerezzprime 13 hours ago

Those distinctions make sense. I guess I'm more interested as to "when" you make that decision. What triggers you to spend the cognitive energy on deciding which model?

nijave 12 hours ago

New feature, rearchitecture -> Fable uses superpowers to create plan

Debugging/analysis/small scripts -> Opus

Non software engineering -> Sonnet

beibeivn 13 hours ago

Great summaary!

When you put it like that, it almost resembles having a classroom of kids with different personalities and talents. Some are thoughtful, some creative, some quick in execution. You choose wisely the path each takes and allocate tasks accordingly. Gives me chills to think of it...

pigpop 15 hours ago

> I prefer the images I’ve gotten fable/opus to make for me over those from gpt-image

What kind of images? I can't imagine getting photorealistic or highly detailed digital art out of LLM writing drawing commands using JavaScript.

jasonshen 11 hours ago

I just saw someone post about getting Claude to write code that renders individual brushstrokes and the results were varied and impressive. Can't prove they actually had Claude do it, but I believe it. Have been using Claude to edit videos and it can animate concepts without much prompting on my part at all.

sawirricardo 14 hours ago

which effort did you use? high/xhigh/max ?

nijave 13 hours ago

Have never noticed a difference between Fable and Opus on coding tasks but design/architecture is night and day different. I usually don't bother with designs with Opus since it tends to screw things up, hallucinate, make bad decisions.

With (obra) superpowers, Fable writes a plan and delegates to Opus which works well. Fable is much better at sorting architecture in a conversation rather than me creating a giant prompt for Opus.

jpatel3 13 hours ago

same here. between fable and opus was hard to find the diff anyway, so to impress one needs to really hit ball out of the park now.

manav 13 hours ago

In using Fable, I too went to examine my "prompt ambition" (can we make this a thing?). You have to abstract a bit to think of what it can do for you.

tty456 13 hours ago

I have had the same experience between opus/fable and also drawing: it has done exceptionally well with SVG drawing in different graphic styles for app icons (comic, fantasy, modern, etc)

boringg 12 hours ago

How good is the 3d model rendering these days?

aytigra 12 hours ago

I wonder how long speeds will last, Opus 5.5 also felt 2x faster for a week or two after release then degraded to usual speed.

cebert 12 hours ago

“Felt” or do you have hard numbers?

conception 12 hours ago

If this were true you could do a talk now and measure it and do it every week and see if it was still true or not and be the first to catch them in the act!

move6729 10 hours ago

If you're paying $40/M output tokens and EIGHT DOLLARS PER MILLION INPUT BTW you're getting straight up robbed. Let's actually just highway robbery.

In the biz we call that "getting soaked".

Anon38 8 hours ago

It is as you say, I expected a much greater gap in capabilities. I was not disappointed, but also not stunned like when Opus 5.5 came out.

But overall, a good release.

mgaunard 5 hours ago

I clearly see the difference between Fable 5.1 and Opus 5.5 everyday.

All the people claiming "opus 5.5 is just as good" tends to make me think some people only do simple tasks or do not care about correctness or quality.

locknitpicker 5 hours ago

> All the people claiming "opus 5.5 is just as good" tends to make me think some people only do simple tasks or do not care about correctness or quality.

Have you considered the possibility of the problem being in the way you prompt a model and prepare it's context? I've been pushing myself to using mainly the cheapest models and I see them deliver the same results once we provide enough context or lay out a plan.

mgaunard 2 hours ago

I'm pretty sure that's not the issue. For example I had one problem where Opus struggled for several weeks without getting us anywhere, flip-flopping in its decisions, generating huge amounts of irrelevant hacks. That obviously went through compaction several times, but I manually maintained explicit documentation and state of the project for it to work with, and reset the session as needed.

Fable made it work correctly in 2 days, it stayed on point, identified the real problems, and gave me clean code that was suitable to merge.

The task was simply to warm the hot path of an app so that latency was not as jittery for some rare, but important, events.

Fable built a reliable repeatable benchmark, disassembled the code to figure out how much could actually fit in L1, made tactical changes to eliminate bloat, and reliably achieved high coverage with minimal edits.

Opus just tried a bunch of random ideas without a plan, hoping to find something that sticks.

zainsheikh 5 hours ago

Opus 5.5 has been good enough for most of my coding, but I don’t know if Fable 5.2 is better for architecture work, like planning how a system fits together or designing the data model. @nijave says it’s night and day for design. Has anyone else seen that? (I don’t have access to Mythos, so I can only compare Fable and Opus.)

seanjhkwon 5 hours ago

At this point, I don't really see much difference in output quality between Opus 5.5 and Fable 5.2. Although, Opus 5.5 seemed to just go on auto pilot mode without give tasks much thoughts unless you give it tasks specifically each time. Fable 5.2 seems to think more on its own.

danvoell 42 minutes ago

The speed part is funny. I felt like with Fable 5.1 I had time to digest what I had prompted and was waiting for. Now I feel like, I am running behind or like it is going to take off too far. This is great for closed prompts "make a soduko game" but hard with running context queries, because I feel like I am creating more information debt than I want. I'll be fine, just talking out loud.

palata an hour ago

> Starting from an empty folder, the model coordinated over 1,000 subagents, working around the clock for eight days writing, testing, and reviewing code. It produced a working operating system that boots on a laptop

This, to me, shows a problem I have with AI: it is reinforcing inequalities. This is literally brute-forcing an OS by throwing money out the window.

It does not sound AT ALL like a clever way to build an OS. But they can do it because they have orders of magnitudes more money to spend on that than people who would actually know how to build an OS.

The thing is, brute-forcing software may be the best solution to make money. So if you are rich and can brute force software in a dumb way, chances are that you can make a business out of it. If you're poor but know what you are doing, you cannot compete.

Technically, it is impressive that they can get a program to do that, but they are wasting money and energy doing it.

PaulStatezny 35 minutes ago

To me, this is a very pertinent take. Vibe coding large projects (even with SOTA models) reliably creates messes at a frequency too large to yield even moderately polished consumer products. It still needs human guidance.

But I'd call false dichotomy on this:

> brute-forcing software may be the best solution to make money. So if you are rich and can brute force software in a dumb way, chances are that you can make a business out of it. If you're poor but know what you are doing, you cannot compete.

Seems to me like the big winners will have know-how and some money to throw at AI.

cma 3 minutes ago

Why doesn't it lower the barrier? You have to be a lot richer to hire a human team that is restricted from using AI for a task like creating an OS.

endriju 3 hours ago

"During prerelease testing they’ve [the models] helped our engineers complete otherwise-infeasible software migrations, designed three working electronic devices from scratch, solved two open problems in the physics of black holes, made substantial progress on robotics evaluations, and formalized the proof of Fermat’s Last Theorem in 30 hours"

Trying to read this with my 2021 brain. Would make me so excited back then. Now I'm not sure what I feel/think about this anymore. One "positive" thing may be I will likely need to get out of the comfy digital shell I've been inhabiting past couple of decades and get some real world skills finally, as those aren't yet replaced by frontier AI.

whiplash451 3 hours ago

> get some real world skills finally, as those aren't yet replaced by frontier AI.

I would not bet on our physical skills that much. The models are coming after the carpenters real hard.

artine 2 hours ago

I have no real familiarity with carpentry, but I would have naively assumed it was at lower risk of automation. A quick search didn’t yield any contrary results. Would you mind elaborating on this?

xvector 2 hours ago

You are buying a few years but AGI embodied in robotics isn't that far out. It might come sooner than we think if the labs fully crack recursive self improvement.

Get into carpentry because you enjoy it, not because you think it'll be a lifeboat!

whiplash451 an hour ago

> Get into carpentry because you enjoy it, not because you think it'll be a lifeboat!

Exactly my original point.

bix6 an hour ago

See HUMXN (interesting name choice) as an example

https://runtimewire.com/article/humxn-free-home-repair-robot...

skinfaxi 18 minutes ago

Get into cooking. Every autonomous kitchen startup ends up bailing because it is too hard.

breakwaterlabs 20 hours ago

- Why are they stacking Fable xHigh against Carbon Med?

- How did they produce such a bizarre effort-intel curve for Carbon that goes against every available benchmark?

- Why did they leave Carbon-- positioned primarily as a cyber model-- off of the single cyber benchmark comparison?

- Why do they switch to comparing against Argon (rather than carbon) for robodojo?

marshalla 20 hours ago

yes. this.

breakwaterlabs 20 hours ago

Just to follow-up-- artificial Analysis shows no justification for that Carbon effort curve, but it does show Carbon on medium smashing Fable on things like Terminal-Bench and AA-Omniscience v1.1 Non-Hallucination Rate.

But I suppose the reality is rather obvious when you note the funny games they're playing with the graphs, and the things they won't talk about (where's Astra on that CVE chart?)

polski-g 20 hours ago

Because Carbon is not out, nobody can run tests on it.

scrollop 20 hours ago

Arena.ai released carbon tests 12 days ago - the only service that I have seen on yt that gained access. And you can compare to other SOTA models in their video.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NO2I3ueVQrk

And they have one on fable 5.2 that was just released, yay

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwaU4yU0PdQ

jsnell 20 hours ago

> - Why are they stacking Fable xHigh against Carbon Med?

Because on that specific benchmark (FrontierCode 2.0), Medium is Carbon's best effort level and xhigh is Fable 5.2's best effort level. You can see that on the graph your next point is about.

And it's just that one benchmark that's at medium. "All scores show each model’s highest-available effort unless otherwise noted".

> - How did they produce such a bizarre effort-intel curve for Carbon that goes against every available benchmark?

The graph is labeled as being about FrontierCode 2.0. Those appear to be Carbon's scores on the official FrontierCode 2.0 leaderboard: https://cognition.com/blog/frontier-code-2.0

> - Why did they leave Carbon-- positioned primarily as a cyber model-- off of the single cyber benchmark comparison?

> - Why do they switch to comparing against Argon (rather than carbon) for robodojo?

Because no numbers are available for Carbon for those benchmarks, and the model isn't publicly available so they couldn't run the benchmarks themselves?

And from your followup:

> where's Astra on that CVE chart

To run Astra on a vulnerability finding eval, you'd need to be part of OpenAI's verified cybersecurity program. Otherwise the results would be tainted by refusals. Do you expect that OpenAI would grant such access in this case?

breakwaterlabs 19 hours ago

> Because on that specific benchmark (FrontierCode 2.0), Medium is Carbon's best effort level

I am referring to the chart that cross-compares multiple benchmarks, which Artificial Analysis clearly shows Carbon-high as superior on. Further, AA's FrontierCode chart places Carbon-high as having a higher score on Frontier 2.0 than Carbon-med (https://artificialanalysis.ai/evaluations/frontiercode-2-0?m...)

Where it gets very interesting is when you look at the Cognition "FrontierCode" publish date (2026.10.27), and the revision as of 10.28 in web archive (https://web.archive.org/web/20261028175237/https://cognition...). This revision has a VERY different Carbon effort / intelligence curve where high beats medium.

It is only with the latest revision, as of today, that all of a sudden Carbon's benchmark curve goes cone-shaped. Curious, indeed....

I'd encourage you to take a look at a third-party's take on this and see whether Anthropic's self-serving report looks "on the level" after doing so: https://artificialanalysis.ai/?models=claude-fable-5-2-high%...

phoghed 19 hours ago

> Do you expect that OpenAI would grant such access in this case?I

Do you expect that nobody at Anthropic has such access? Trillion dollar company can’t manage this basic level of opposition research?

judge2020 17 hours ago

Best not to give special access to your biggest direct competitor beyond accessing your product at typical API prices.

catlifeonmars 10 hours ago

Probably not for lack of trying though. The incentives for corporate espionage are strong.

Tadpole9181 13 hours ago

Isn't it against TOS for OpenAI to use their models in the development of competing models? So, any employee who does so would be opening themselves up to civil liability at AI scales. IANAL, obviously, so genuinely curious.

kragen 13 hours ago

Maybe they contract out the work to other companies in other countries who promise not to access OpenAI and then sign up to do things they couldn't do without accessing OpenAI? Like independent promoter payola.

killingtime74 18 hours ago

Maybe it's not generally available so they can't benchmark it? Don't even know who has access now.

mlmonkey 11 hours ago

Carbon is still vaporware for most people. You evaluate what you can get your hands on.

Google is still living in its golden age, where it had no real competition, and could move at its own pace.

Time have changed. Googlers better wake up.

willy_k 10 hours ago

Google isn’t interested in the same way OpenAI/Anthropic are, Google has other sources of like, actual profit, to factor in, eg to resource considerations.

bitexploder 10 hours ago

Question, why does Google /have/ to compete model for model? If you zoom out on a time scale even slightly the difference in the models is almost non-existent. Google owns the railway and many rails themselves...

grey-area 9 hours ago

People prefer a chat interface to a search box.

OpenAI is coming for google’s cash cow ads business (which is already vulnerable because of their sharp practice).

lukasm 37 minutes ago

I'm suprised how bad is marketing and UX on these models. In reality you want a chat app with two send button "Fast" and "Think". I don't want effort x model options (14?)

throwuxiytayq 24 minutes ago

If you don’t want to think and would like to to have two random options that aren’t tuned for your workload, just pick two at random.

There isn’t any optimal, workflow-universal “fast” and “think” preset they could offer. I don’t know what you expect.

Your feedback is ultimately off the useless kind: you basically proposed “please take away my options, I want it to be always good automatically”, with no actual proposed path to get there. Sadly, lots of product managers share this mindset, which is how we get a deluge of non-configurable idiot-proof-but-mediocre software that makes nobody happy.

advaith08 20 hours ago

We've been early testing Fable 5.2, and have been surprised by its coding ability. It was able to work with an esoteric 600k line fortran codebase to speed up some computational material science work for us by 36 times (!). Given that this could be done in 2 days, we've decided to open-source the results https://github.com/discovered-materials/dm_qe

oh_no 19 hours ago

What surprised you about this? This seems pretty in line with optimization work seen from a wide range of models.

Did you try doing the same on Opus or others? How did they do?

I don't love these "look, this frontier model blew me away" comments when there is no point of comparison.

advaith08 18 hours ago

We tried it with Fable 5.1 as well, which was 3-4x slower than 5.2. We also have a blog with benchmark and details if you're curious https://discoveredmaterials.com/research/accelerating-quantu...

eslaught 10 hours ago

I searched for "5.1" in your blog post, and the only hits are in the benchmark numbers.

I agree with GP: without a comparison to Opus 5.5 or some other models, it's not clear how much of an advance this is. If anything, my experience is that performance optimization in existing codebases is something existing models are already great at: it's measurable (you directly profile or try experiments to see what works) and the code architecture is usually relatively fixed (at least relative to deep/greenfield work where there are large architectural questions to be addressed). Newer models might be better at generating ideas for things to try, but if you're getting 36x then it honestly sounds like you have a lot of low-hanging fruit.

thebackup 10 hours ago

This sounds very much in line with most reports from people getting early access to models over the last years. Maybe it actually is a lot faster, but it may as well be the load on it not being very high yet. I'll keep my excitement until it has been adopted by the masses.

antoine-levitt 9 hours ago

Hey for once I feel qualified to reply on a HN thread (I'm one of the developers of DFTK, a similar package). Very nice result. I'm not particularly surprised, as QE is not particularly GPU optimized. I've heard that the QE developers interested in GPU are doing it in Sirius, but I don't know much about it. More generally there's a tension between new features / optimizations and maintainability. I'm not sure how to deal with this medium term. Perhaps having two code bases, one for humans and the other for AI, is not the worst solution.

tasoeur 9 hours ago

Hey there, I keep seeing people on this threads mentioning testing anthropic models early, is there some beta program that people can join? Do you have to be an anthropic partner? Curious to learn more.

yewenjie 21 hours ago

> Our first formalization of Fermat’s Last Theorem, performed by an unreleased research version of Claude, took 11 days. It relied on a purpose-built harness along with guidance from a human researcher. By contrast, a team of 1,000 Fable 5.2 agents fully formalized the theorem in just 30 hours, with minimal human intervention. Fable 5.2 started from minimal prompts, built its own ways to coordinate, and used no mathematical references, only a list of intermediate theorem statements to score progress. It needed one-third of the action tokens as our first formalization and produced a proof seven times shorter. As can be seen in the figure below, Opus 5.5 (with the same 1,000-agent setup) completed only 26% of the formalization in 18 hours, and barely made any more progress after 30.

Most people don't really have intuitions on what it means to push the frontier now (because AI has surpassed everything they are good at, for example, coding). We are truly inside the singularity (using Kurzweil's definition, slightly paraphrased - the time when technology progresses so fast no one can keep track with it).

freecodeio 21 hours ago

I gotta admit, I am jelly as fuck I don't have access to a billion dollar datacenter. Would LOVE to put 1000 fable 5.2 agents to self-coordinate and get them to do something for me. Fuck life is unfair.

flanz_10 21 hours ago

apply at one of the frontier labs

freecodeio 20 hours ago

yeah I wish

microsoftedging 20 hours ago

you never know until you try, even though the odds might suck, to be fair.

flanz_10 20 hours ago

okay then don't apply

theteapot 19 hours ago

I just applied. "Dear Dario, Gimme job. Kind regards, theteapot.". Fingers crossed.

thimabi 20 hours ago

I’d be happy even without having access to a billion dollar datacenter, if I could use local models properly, but even that requires some serious hardware that is out of my reach. We live in weird times: I have lots of hope for the future, but meanwhile AI access is pretty iniquitous indeed.

adventured 20 hours ago

Sub 1% of the planet has access to cutting edge frontier AI.

Sub 1% of the planet has any practical use for the top tiers of AI systems. That will likely always be true.

The gap between the haves and have nots will drastically widen further, and very quickly. The bottom ~95-97% will be left behind in a way that will be impossible to overcome. The age of AI + robotics will just make it that much harder to climb for most people, these are systems that are in aggressive, direct competition with human labor. And in short order the AI + robots will be vastly superior to human labor (it doesn't really matter if we're speaking in terms of 10 years or 30 years).

AI will consolidate the winnings. The gigantic gains by the elite rich related to AI over the past few years, is merely a hint of what's to come. Capital will win as it always does.

There will be some gains for most everybody else, those gains will be comparatively trivial though. A house bot that saves people an hour of labor here and there, AI that automates some trivial life tasks.

AI has no money, it has no wealth, it owns no capital. For now. If you want to avoid the brutal human vs AI/robot competition arena: own capital, own the AI, own the robots.

PhunkyPhil 14 hours ago

Is this substantiated right now in any real way? Is there any existing gap between the barista who doesn't care about AI and the person working at anthropic who has access to internal models? Or the person with 3 $200 subscriptions?

Maybe money? They can make websites for people? What gap really exists between these people besides earning potential, which already existed before AI.

adventured 14 hours ago

The existing gap gets made worse by AI concentrating wealth even further to the owners of the assets that are producing via AI. AI will generate intense wealth from productivity gains, and those new gains will be more concentrated than any other economic round we've seen previously. It's a human labor eliminator the likes of which we have never run into before.

Fewer humans will be needed per dollar of output. Those gains will not go to labor, they will go to capital, the capital that owns the data centers, the factories, the stores, et al.

In the physical space (AI + robotics) it'll be a chaotic, slow'ish moving change, slower than the hypsters are predicting now, but it will happen regardless.

That barista job largely won't exist in the future. China will replace them with $3,000 bots with high-functioning AI software, and they definitely won't be powered by expensive Nvidia GPUs.

Slow changing service & manufacturing spaces will see a high wipe out ratio in terms of human labor being eliminated.

Walmart has 2.1 million employees, most are doing repetitive tasks that require modest levels of intelligence. If they could eliminate one million of those with AI + robotics, for a cost of less than ~$15,000 per year, they'd do it immediately. It's hard to imagine a future where that isn't going to happen. That human labor pool is costing Walmart probably $80-$100 billion per year. Amazon is even more forthright in their desperation to remove the humans from retail.

melasadra 19 hours ago

I'm using Opus 5.5 and I cant help but think that I might very well be one of the few people who do so in my local area ( developing country, one of the poorest province ).

Had Opus make software for some local business and seeing it blew people's mind.

20$ aint cheap for us but I'm actually considering upgrading to the 100$ tier.

Am just jelly people are using 100-200$ subscription ^_^

sandos 2 hours ago

I would be happy with 5 unlimited agents. We are limited by models and the amount of credits (copilot) we get, so...

I can't even imagine what I would so much compute for. My private 10$ copilot plan was basically unused last month, I could just not come up with anything to spend it on. (Also suffering a bit of AI burnout from work helps here...)

websap 21 hours ago

This 1000x!

We've sort of entered this twilight zone where most humans don't have the time, expertise, or moral compass to be able to use these models.

We're all going to be harness engineers in the future.

achierius 20 hours ago

> We're all going to be harness engineers in the future

No, that will be the model's job. We will largely be unemployed. Of course, we can surely depend on the largesse of Altman and Amodei to keep us fed and sheltered.

zeroonetwothree 15 hours ago

I've been hearing this claim of imminent unemployment for 3+ years now and yet employment levels are as high as ever.

Seattle3503 12 hours ago

And the frontier labs themselves are hiring a ton.

birdsongs 6 hours ago

Almost every engineer I know has had downsizing/restructuring in the past 6 months at their companies.

adventured 20 hours ago

All the human engineers will be in harnesses in the future.

Within three years most software developer jobs will consist of taking instruction from the AI systems. The humans won't see it that way, but that's what it will actually be. Realistically the thing that will happen is the humans will be put into harnesses (cubicles) and prompted by the AI (I need you to plug that server in; I need you to give me access to such and such; now do this, then do that). Most tech jobs will consist of AI telling the human what the AI needs the human to do next, de facto the human will be in a harness and will be getting told what to do.

dominotw 20 hours ago

But who gives it the intial prompt as to what to do?

Someone has to type in "create the next billboard top 1 single" ?

IshKebab 20 hours ago

It'll be Sam Altman "make people love me, fan out humans".

adventured 20 hours ago

The ownership class, the capital class - whatever people prefer to call it, will still call all the shots as they always have, and always will.

So whether that's a CEO at the top instructing a human manager that then instructs AI systems, which then put into motion plans that include the harnessed humans getting prompted, or however it's decided to best configure the top operational tiers - that's all fairly irrelevant ultimately. All human labor, and all AI labor, will be in harnesses. Realistically all human labor has always been in a harness.

The people in charge will be the people that control the capital. They will instruct the AI to their bidding, they will control the data centers the AI lives in, they will own the robots doing the labor in factories, they will own the factories, they will control the grid, they will control the electricity generation, et al.

It's true now, it'll be true tomorrow. Nothing fundamental will shift at that tier: don't be labor, own.

If you're a software developer, you're increasingly depreciating labor. Every unit of improvement the AI systems see, the average human software developer's labor value diminishes. It's diminishing extraordinarily fast, kind of like a confrontation between increasingly productive machines and physical human labor during the industrial revolution. You might as well picture a human with a hand plow taking on a modern industrial tractor.

bobson381 19 hours ago

I like to think of capital itself as possessing actancy - the ultra rich are just the closest to the raw thing, and its most powerful servants.

bobson381 19 hours ago

If you take Daniel Schmachtenberger's thesis, these models are the latest extension of an ongoing misaligned moloch-like entity, using our institutions/economy/corporations, etc. as its organelles. All powered, most recently, by fossil fuel.

greenchair 19 hours ago

the product owner/manager

dakiol 18 hours ago

We dont need product owners, we need product engineers.

0c3ca83 18 hours ago

"Maximize my share of the economy", from one of the leaders of a frontier lab, should probably be enough.

fph 19 hours ago

Isn't this what driving a car has become as well? Google Maps says "take the 3rd exit", and the dumb human takes the 3rd exit.

BodyCulture 19 hours ago

I still see errors in AI output on a daily basis.

theF00l 19 hours ago

Yes but we see errors in human output too.

segfaultex 19 hours ago

Sure but humans aren’t being billed as “superintelligence”

girvo 19 hours ago

A human can be fired, or put on a PIP, and is otherwise responsible for their output.

An algorithm isn’t. I still dunno how they’re gonna square that circle.

0c3ca83 18 hours ago

How many humans do you need to keep around as scapegoats concurrently? I figure one with a CEO title should be enough.

CamperBob2 18 hours ago

They will square it by pointing out, correctly, that AI is getting better while humans are not.

The state of the art doesn't matter. Only the first couple of time derivatives matter.

digdugdirk 19 hours ago

Exactly. It will now be your job to catch those errors. Or else.

snoman 12 hours ago

Code review, qa, staging, product review, dog fooding… what do you mean “now”? It’s always been all of our jobs to catch all of our errors. We’re just including the AI’s errors now hoping that the overlap of everyone’s errors is sufficiently small.

birdsongs 6 hours ago

Can I ask what kind of work, and what models? Because I don't, I'm a senior embedded engineer working with frontier models, and I haven't seen a major mistake in at least few months now, since earlier in the year.

It will sometimes get things wrong because it made non-viable assumptions, but that's on me and prompt accuracy.

What I see is: it makes tests against desired features or bugs or mistakes, and iterates until it gets it correct. I steer as it goes.

(I hate this, by the way, zero job enjoyment anymore, but I don't know what else to do.)

jnwatson 18 hours ago

Not only will the humans-as-meat-puppets model be used for software engineers, but it is likely the way that agentic workflows will expand beyond software development, data science, and mathematics.

I first heard about this in Marshall Brain's short story _Manna_ [1]. In the story, the robot takeover started with AI management software running fast food restaurants, where workers would execute tasks the AI would narrate to them over headsets.

I bet we're pretty close to being able to implement this.

1. https://web.archive.org/web/20260725174355/https://marshallb...

scott_weber 18 hours ago

Why would there be a human in this imagined system at all?

adventured 14 hours ago

The ownership will want humans to punish, humans to trust, humans to manipulate, and humans that can be fired. They'll want a human physically present, representing them as oversight over the AI (a job the capital doesn't want to be doing 24/7). There are serious legal matters involved in high functioning AI systems (and that will dramatically increase over the coming decade), the capital will be extremely worried about liability issues. Human scapegoats are ideal. For now capital will want human style consequence-feedback systems for a tier of human oversight over the AI. It'll probably take a full generation before the capital controlling humans forget / give up on the old systems fully.

It's also worth noting that it's far easier at present to press a human into doing something highly illegal than it is to get Claude or GPT to do so.

1659447091 14 hours ago

> Why would there be a human in this imagined system at all?

in the imagined system above it requires physical acts that an llm can not do, if we go further than the above imagined system and make robots to perform these task for the llm a human still is needed for maintenance for these robots and their assembly, once there are robots for maintaining the llm assistant robots, humans are still needed to maintain the maintenance robots and so on and so forth. I dont see an end point where a robot machine system is fully self healing without atleast a few humans in the mix to correct when there is a breakage in the chain

xpct 12 hours ago

What's the point at which humans decide that the economic gains aren't worth it?

This year alone, a lot of people have been complaining of how unsatisfying their job has become. I imagine this will keep getting worse, not better.

Gareth321 6 hours ago

People need to eat. Unless there is UBI/UHI, there is no point at which humans can opt out of society (with some exceptions, of course).

If the claimed productivity gains turn out to be correct, we really should have UBI/UHI in the future, and that will permit a lot of people who hate their jobs to quit. Of course we won't do that until things become dire.

xpct 5 hours ago

You frame it as if humans have no control over societal organization at all. If everyone's job became 50% less interesting, I imagine we'd see unrest, even if the wages got a bit better.

Gareth321 3 hours ago

Maybe I'm cynical, but I believe that the VAST majority of people are already unhappy with their jobs. In fact, the vast majority of people have been unhappy with their jobs for hundreds of years - probably thousands. They don't do them because they are happy to work. They do them because they want to eat.

Is there some kind of breaking point? There is for everyone, but I don't think satisfaction is the red line. For most people it has historically been things like pay and health and safety. If everyone were to suddenly have their pay cut in half, I could see that resulting in general unrest.

cezart 2 hours ago

While I don't fully understand the mechanics of it, people do revolutions from time to time. People can decide that they don't want the current system, and try to reorganize themselves in a different manner. And who doesn't agree might get burned in the revolutionary flames. It happened many times before in human history, including several times in the US (independence, civil war, and to lower degree universal suffrage etc.)

Sateeshm 20 hours ago

We're all harness engineers already

theteapot 19 hours ago

> We've sort of entered this twilight zone where most humans don't have the time, expertise, or moral compass to be able to use these models.

Sounds a bit like self aggrandizing elitism to me. I can imagine some self aggrandizing nerds saying the same thing 50 years ago:

> We've sort of entered this twilight zone where most humans don't have the time, expertise, or moral compass to be able to use these IBM PCs.

Now everyone use computer.

micoti 5 hours ago

> Now everyone use computer.

I tend to agree with this. Seems to me that people really start to miss what happened when PC became comodity. A lot of people were scared that they would lose their jobs because of it, and some really did lose job. But in majority there are a lot of people today who doesn't use PC even if it would be beneficial for their job and they still have the job. Bigger players (companies who have more money) will tend more to automate their processes and thus earn more money so I think HN is in some sort of bubble because we only think our jobs are the only ones that exist

0c3ca83 18 hours ago

> We're all going to be harness engineers in the future.

Lolwut. If this shit works the way it's boosters claim, humans will have absolutely nothing to contribute.

Sit down, shut up, and get out of the way, because your involvement is slowing shit down.

Robotics are lagging, so there's probably a few years where we're going to need humans to crawl into that awkward space under the counter and twist some knobs, or to clean toilets.

twobitshifter 18 hours ago

We will likely end up as more of a sloperator than a harness engineer.

kaffekaka 20 hours ago

> We are truly inside the singularity (using Kurzweil's definition, slightly paraphrased - the time when technology progresses so fast no one can keep track with it).

Uh, are you serious?

tshaddox 20 hours ago

This was likely already the case in the ancient world. It was certainly the case by the mid to late 15th century.

p_l 20 hours ago

The older, original definitions of "singularity" were less about "herp derp superintelligent AI blah blah".

and just about "we cannot really predict beyond certain things" (Vinge's "Singularity" (1993) with its "opaque wall across future")

dwohnitmok 19 hours ago

> The older, original definitions of "singularity" were less about "herp derp superintelligent AI blah blah".

No they were exactly about superintelligent AI!

Vinge's 1993 article literally opens with this!

> What is the Singularity? The acceleration of technological progress has been the central feature of this century. We are on the edge of change comparable to the rise of human life on Earth. The precise cause of this change is the imminent creation by technology of entities with greater-than-human intelligence.

https://frc.ri.cmu.edu/~hpm/book98/com.ch1/vinge.singularity...

throw310822 18 hours ago

Thanks for your link, this (a few paragraphs from the top) seems to settle it:

  Stan Ulam paraphrased John von Neumann as saying:

  One conversation centered on the ever-accelerating progress of technology and changes in the mode of human life, which gives the appearance of approaching some essential singularity in the history of the race beyond which human affairs, as we know them, could not continue.

   Von Neumann even uses the term singularity, though it appears he is thinking of normal progress, not the creation of superhuman intellect.
So the concept of technological singularly precedes and is independent of that of intelligence explosion- although one could argue that the latter is the most logical way for the singularity to come about.

dwohnitmok 15 hours ago

You're cutting off the sentence that comes right after:

> For me, the superhumanity is the essence of the Singularity. Without that we would get a glut of technical riches, never properly absorbed.

Vinge's definition is what popularized the singularity (rather than simply a singularity at some point).

p_l 18 hours ago

It's one of the options, but not "oh superintelligent AI comes in and we mostly know what that means so we want to speedrun it " - which I'll admit I was not very clear on.

In fact, one of the options Vinge considered was a "group intellect" formed from how humans communicate more thanks to internet

dwohnitmok 15 hours ago

What Vinge is talking about is way closer to the weirdness of AI than the mundaneness of e.g. a societal grouping of ordinary humans.

Even for that option, Vinge's comments in the conclusion of the article make it clear he's thinking primarily of very weird superintelligence and the group intellect is some sort of physical mind meld/hivemind that essentially just is a biological substrate for AI.

> The post-Singularity world will involve extremely high-bandwidth networking. A central feature of strongly superhuman entities will likely be their ability to communicate at variable bandwidths, including ones far higher than speech or written messages. What happens when pieces of ego can be copied and merged, when self-awareness can grow or shrink to fit the nature of the problems under consideration? These are essential features of strong superhumanity and the Singularity. Thinking about them, one begins to feel how essentially strange and different the Posthuman era will be -- no matter how cleverly and benignly it is brought to be.

From the very beginning with Vinge, the Singularity has been primarily about the craziness of super intelligence rather than a more mundane technological explosion.

Fordec 20 hours ago

I feel like I'm increasingly reading AI current events is more like learning about historical events. By the time information has entered my head, there is even newer information out there that already makes what my brain is only currently actively processing, obsolete.

FailMore 20 hours ago

Nice description

jeremyjh 20 hours ago

Also, the frontier labs are probably always internally using a model more advanced than what has been publicly released.

vlyan 19 hours ago

because they hate money? google is the only frontier lab that isn't hundreds of billions in the red.

jeremyjh 19 hours ago

Because they do months of testing. Also, if they have models that are really good at AI research, I’d not expect full versions to ever be released, precisely because of their love of money.

thomasmurph 19 hours ago

Inference on the research models they have is likely more expensive than the released ones.

93po 18 hours ago

My assumption is that they're overly expensive to run at scale and/or don't have the same safeguards that public models have and possibly get better results because of that. If a model is 100x more expensive to run but 4x better results, of course you'd use that internally to make your product even better - it's compounding returns. But people aren't going to pay 100x their current bill for 4x results.

user43928 19 hours ago

From the model card:

  Model                AECI   95% CI (global)
  Claude Opus 5.5    174.78   170.33-180.29
  Claude Mythos 5.2  177.12   172.42-182.94
  Internal model     178.78   173.75-185.18
Considering the IPO is planned in a week, I doubt they are holding much back.

jeremyjh 19 hours ago

According to their S-1:

In H1 2026, cost of revenue is $2.3B. That is primarily inference compute, but also includes cost of training models (but not research).

In the same period, R&D was $9.4B. That is primarily spent on compute. That is what they are "holding back" already, in full public view.

This is not a company that is optimizing for OpEx or end user revenue. The only thing relevant to their plans is achieving AGI/ASI first, and controlling enough compute to leverage it to earn the majority of the current economy.

sfink 17 hours ago

"Achieving AGI" strikes me as a mostly meaningless phrase. I'm skeptical that it is a boolean event. They're already smarter in some ways, their impact is large and gradually rising, the set of specific tasks that they aren't capable of is gradually shrinking. If AGI means anything useful, it seems like we'll only see it in hindsight and have to argue over when "it" happened.

Likewise the singularity. While recursive self-improvement is theoretically trivial (just tweak a random subset of weights like a monkey with a typewriter, eventually you'll get something smarter), the resulting exponential improvement is still very hypothetical and feels unlikely. Unless you're ok with an exponent of 1.000000000000000001.

jeremyjh 16 hours ago

These are not my stated ambitions, they are the ambitions that Anthropic and Dario have said they are pursuing. Whether or not they are realistic is not relevant to this thread. The credibility of the plans are relevant to the S-1 and anyone who purchases stock from them, but for the purposes of this thread, it is only important that Anthropic believes it has credible chances of achieving this goal, and in particular that it has a competitive advantage, could do so first, and that being first could have a very large upside.

sfink 15 hours ago

Sorry, I didn't mean to judge your post, I was just going off on a tangent inspired by your post. Mostly unrelated to either the S-1 or Fable 5.2.

zeroonetwothree 15 hours ago

"smarter in some ways" != "general intelligence"

I agree we will only see it in hindsight, but I think that's always the case with any technology. It seems worse until it's suddenly better. I don't think it matters to argue the exact moment though. For example when did cars become clearly better than horses? No one cares about the exact date.

charcircuit 15 hours ago

What about the intelligence is not general? What subject is it missing?

Jensson 2 hours ago

The stuff that humans are still smarter at, otherwise it wouldn't be "smarter in some ways".

econ an hour ago

We are slowly approaching a real definition of intelligence by chanting that llms aren't.

emp17344 13 hours ago

All tools are better than humans in specific, narrow ways. That’s how tools work.

Viliam1234 20 hours ago

Welcome to Singularity.

Now imagine feeling like this, except not just about "AI events" but about everything around you.

boringg 19 hours ago

I have to imagine if I worked for one of these companies on the frontier models it would be very difficult to leave for that reason. Thee pay is also pretty good.

yieldcrv 20 hours ago

Isn't this part of the lore behind the Dune universe?

Like, we're dropped into a post post post singularity world where AI already did all of that and is banned? as kind of a footnote that's never further explored in movie renditions that have been released

p_l 20 hours ago

Dune books by Frank Herbert never actually went into what "Butlerian Jihad" was.

The semi-canonical Dune Encyclopedia (disregarded by Frank's son) differs vastly from prequels and generally points to it being a self-inflicted wound on humanity that opened the doors to widespread return of feudalism and essentially stopped humanity for a 10,000 years

stickfigure 20 hours ago

> the time when technology progresses so fast no one can keep track with it

You're obviously not a frontend web developer.

These upgrades are easy peasy. "oh, my developer chatbot is smarter? great"

gwerbin 20 hours ago

> a team of 1,000 Fable 5.2 agents

Genuinely curious what that costs in terms of energy input and amortized computer cost vs. the previous version + a human's salary for 11 days.

lubujackson 19 hours ago

Yes, and not very helpful without knowing how many agents were used by the custom-built harness. The 30 hrs vs. 11 days means nothing without at least some token-to-token comparison. Without that, they are pumping up their new model with half data - better to just say "we solved it in 30 hours" and who cares about your internal, custom model.

piyh 11 hours ago

Elastic cloud compute for math geniuses. Even if it's $2:$1 - machine:human, there's value in elasticity

bamboozled 20 hours ago

If we're in the singularity, can I just take the day off work and go to the beach ?

Refreeze5224 18 hours ago

If the singularity doesn't shorten my workday, count me out.

mentalgear 19 hours ago

> Fable 5.2 started from minimal prompts, built its own ways to coordinate, and used no mathematical references, only a list of intermediate theorem statements to score progress. It needed one-third of the action tokens as our first formalization and produced a proof seven times shorter.

Is this really so astonishing, assuming that the 5.2 training data certainly had the 'traces' from the Fable original run in it's training data.

legulere 19 hours ago

Kurzweil's definition contains exponential growth across technology, something that we are not seeing.

What we're seeing instead is maybe akin to the green revolution. Before nitrogen fixation nitrogen was a resource constraining us humans. Lack of grit is what kept us from solving mathematical problems. However this lets us run into other resource constraints. A lot of technological progress does not solely hinge on thinking/processing. The speedup of creating new medicines with LLMs will probably be very small, as you still need to do all the testing. In software development you still need to first find out what to build in the first place and even mathematics where LLMs seem to shin brightest, it's becoming clearer that mathematics is not just solving mathematical problems.

Apart from that, a good coder is better than LLMs, shown by the amount of hand-holding needed. The only issue is that the amount of research an LLM can do and knowledge it is trained with far surpasses the amount of work humans would need to spend by hand, but we can also us LLMs for that.

origini 19 hours ago

I thought we see exp right now or indications.

Like models getting significant better every 7 month and model usage on openrouter.

https://metr.org/ << someone said though that they are biased.

Math is for sure about solving mathematical problems, mathematicians complaing about humans capability of understanding it. If you need math an LLM understands, it might not be relevant if you understand it if an LLM is getting a lot better in adjusting itself if it goes the wrong way.

And this situation is only a few weeks old. We don't know how this field continues to progress. Books like the culture series and other scifi do describe a future were humans spend their time only to understand what the machines are doing or did.

The speedup of medicines is for sure faster with. There are still old labs doing everything by hand and the neolabs doing everything a lot more automated. An AI can do experiments 24/7 and can scale with the hardwarelabs, but it also can hold the whole research field in context and it might be a lot faster of choosing the better experiments or the right ones to begin with.

In software developmet (my field) i can do today alone what you needed a Team for. Yeah it doesn't help the field of software engineering if you need 5 times less people and you don't have any motivation AT ALL to teach someone avg. We are already planning to remove one member of our team due to AI. And we will not extend the contract of 2 consultants.

It just doesn't make sense anymore. If i explain in a ticket a task well enough for someone who has not been in our team for years, the AI is already better in it. We don't struggle with AI output, we struggle more with not having a Monorepo.

Give an LLM access to a GPU system or a GPU cluster. It immediadly feels complelty different then running it on some laptop. It can now do simulations, a lot more and faster experiments etc. I had this epiphany just a few month ago. I always used my laptop for projects (it needs very little ram, i can quickly check what it is doing and i actually do use it primarily when im on holidays) until I thought "let me use claude to do some gaussian splatting experiment its always so cumbersome to use these tools" and it changed my perception immediadly.

xvector 2 hours ago

FWIW METR isn't biased, they are probably the most trustworthy/respected organization in this space. You can read their reports and they are clearly not biased.

nickalaso 18 hours ago

I would imagine Anthropic is hitting a wall on the number of simultaneous agents that can be useful on a task and are working on increasing that maximum. I would assume if they could get twice as much progress by using 10000 simultaneous running fable instances instead their brief would state that.

IMO, it is very interesting and also very alarming. At some point the barrier to the exponential progress is the amount of computation available. I would consider hitting this limit and then likely using the same said swarm to help resolve it via various means as very much fitting under the definition of Ray Kurzweil's singularity.

Also, I would disagree, Fable is a sufficient coder. The average human being better, even if that is true now (and personally I wouldn't agree), the average human is limited in the number of 'human instances' he or she can interface with at one time.

if 1000 fable instances is better than any human at a task, how about 1 million instances running? Much easier than finding and hiring and coordinating 1000 extremely productive and intelligent human beings. Much cheaper too, it appears.

a_wild_dandan 18 hours ago

10k OpenAI agents solved a Millennium Prize problem. Anthropic ain't gonna hit a wall there.

bryzio 16 hours ago

Could someone explain how increasing number of agents help? Is each agent researching a potential solution space where there's many potential solution spaces? I'm struggling to conceptualize how a large agent swarm can be used to solve a research problem.

bertmuir 15 hours ago

By collaborating and division of labour.

Sharlin 14 hours ago

Similarly to how nine women can make a baby in one month by collaborating and division of labour.

lmpdev 11 hours ago

I think it would depend on the nature of the specific task

JackMcMack 6 hours ago

My wife made two babies in seven months!

pvab3 15 hours ago

I don't think it's nearly as relevant as the total amount of compute being used. I just think they like talking about swarms because it sort of anthropomorphizes them.

muddi900 9 hours ago

I believe agents can keep a check on each other. I have had better results running multiple agents

dingdongditchme 6 hours ago

Anthropomorphizing also reaches it's limits. LLM's are not humans and have different strengths and weaknesses.

genghisjahn 14 hours ago

Feel like this might still apply to multi-agent programming:

I have earlier argued that the sheer number of minds to be coordinated affects the cost of the effort, for a major part of the cost is communication and correcting the ill effects of miscommunication (system debugging). The Mythical Man-Month Frederick P. Brooks Jr.

Tadpole9181 13 hours ago

Actually, I think Microsoft just posted the results of research the other day that would be relevant. They were looking at self-organized AI swarms instead of centralized orchestration, and found that just starting up thousands of SOTA models really can precipitate a natural hierarchy and work toward problem solving.

At the very least, the swarm would be able to set up a means of claiming avenues of thought, then verifying the solutions (or lack thereof) of other agents.

It's quite clear this process - whatever it may be - works, given the results we've seen in the past few weeks.

wyre 13 hours ago

I am just as clueless as you are, but I think it having each agent work on the problem mostly individually in parallel, likely sharing their breakthroughs for the next wave of agents. I'm reminded of infinite monkey's writing Shakespeare; suggesting if you have an infinite amount of agents, they will end up solving a Millenium Prize Problem.

Here is OpenAI's blog post about Navier-Stokes; [1] which suggests they used smaller connected swarms given the different prompts, then the findings were used to write further follow up prompts for a new group of agents.

[1] https://openai.com/index/navier-stokes-solution/

RugnirViking 5 hours ago

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6cb7qd3RSkgnviCpf/swarm-scal...

> "Here λ is a parameter measuring how parallelisable the task is. They call it the ‘stepping on toes’ parameter. If λ = 1, you have a perfectly parallelisable task, with no stepping on toes and no efficiency penalty. But in reality λ is usually between 0 and 1 — allowing more people to help, but with diminishing returns. For example, if λ = 0.5 then 100 people working together get as much done as 1 person working for 100^0.5 = 10 times as long"

There are diminishing returns to more agents, but they're faster and can scale further than a single smarter agent - it's not really possible to just give 10k times more thinking budget to a single agent because it runs out of context, so for problems that require that much context you can ask the agents to specialize. Each only has a small view of the problem and they probably duplicate a lot of work and step on each others toes and make arcane bureaucracy but there is literally no other way to scale beyond a certain point

just like people

CamperBob2 18 hours ago

Apart from that, a good coder is better than LLMs

I don't think that case can be made. I'm a "good coder" and the best LLMs are now better at it than I am, in essentially every respect that matters. I can't think of a test that I could reliably pass that Fable or Astra would reliably fail.

sfink 17 hours ago

Right now, I'd probably pick the task of writing a graphical interface, say a webapp, with a bunch of different gestures and having it "feel good" to users. That's a difficult evaluation to automate, at least for now, which is probably why they're not that good at it yet.

They'd prototype and adjust a lot faster than a human coder, though.

vbezhenar 16 hours ago

I can mediate with project manager about some requirements which should not be implemented. I can make decisions to simplify the system without bothering my manager with endless details. I can create short and concise report.

I can say "no".

I can store passwords in the database unencrypted and unhashed.

So far AI that I've used failed spectacularly on these prospects.

They're like "yes-man". They'll try to do everything you ask of them. Even if you ask nonsense, they'll not push back.

They'll go crazy about security stuff, even not relevant to the current situation.

They'll complicate the code endlessly for situations which will not arise, making the code an incomprehensible mess.

They'll write so many useless words that any reader will forget what this report is about before then reach the middle of it.

They'll never iterate on code until it looks good. They'll stop when test pass. They don't have aesthetical sense of beauty.

They love to cheat too often. And you can't do nothing about that. You can't fine them or fire them, and they know about it.

They're smart but I'm not convinced they're ready to replace human in mundane engineering jobs.

isityettime 14 hours ago

> I can store passwords in the database unencrypted and unhashed.

huh?

zeroonetwothree 15 hours ago

Make an elegant UI that isn't awkward to use without excessive verbosity (mix of coding, design and UX).

Architect a system for long-term maintainability.

Encode the right amount of business logic into tests, without being overly strict.

Models seem quite poor at all of these IME. Essentially any time there are qualitative tradeoffs they are not great at making them.

CamperBob2 11 hours ago

I said I was a good coder, not a talented human interface designer. I can certainly build an elegant UI, and have done so, but that was because I took directions ("prompts") from someone who had the necessary skill and taste. Left to my own devices, the UI would have all the graphical appeal of Zork.

The designer could just as easily have closed the same feedback loop with Fable or Astra.

dabinat 15 hours ago

I think there’s still value in stuff that people can see, like frontend design. Because even if LLMs are technically better, every site is going to look the same. What’s good very quickly becomes cliché when everyone does it.

komali2 14 hours ago

Is this just because we're exposed to more of these personal project LLM sites? Because I remember people complaining about all sites looking the same all the time ever since bootstrap came out.

YZF 14 hours ago

How do you define "good coder"? I've yet to see LLMs that write better than what I consider the best human code. I think Michael Hashimoto showed that not too far back where getting LLMs to optimize for a problem resulted in code better than naive but much worse than expert and that's before even talking about how that code looks/reads.

I'll admit I'm not on the very cutting edge models but LLMs make weird tradeoffs and lack creativity. They will sometimes write marginally better but way over-complicated code for no good reason. That can have performance implications and they're generally not "aware". They can gain awareness via profiling but again run into limited creativity or big picture understanding. They are good with cliche but not as good with novel situations. With human guidance this is still productive/useful but as the systems grow more complex they are less able to reason correctly about them.

I would say that in certain situations they outperform the average software developer. They definitely outperform in speed and output. So they're like a maybe 1600 ELO chess player for software. I.e. they play chess better than all non-chess players. They play chess better than many chess players. But they're not "master" or "gm" level across the entire discipline. But they can play 100k chess games in the time it takes me to figure out my move...

Gareth321 6 hours ago

> Kurzweil's definition contains exponential growth across technology, something that we are not seeing.

This is not quite the framing he uses, but we're quibbling about subjective terms. In his 2005 book, The Singularity Is Near, he defines the singularity as a future period when technological change becomes so rapid and consequential that human life is irreversibly transformed. I would argue this is what we are seeing today. Just because we don't yet have replicators doesn't mean the definition isn't met. It really comes down to how you personally define words like "rapid" and "consequential."

gimlichgu an hour ago

and how you define technology. Look outside, look in the store, stuff is static or getting worse and prices are rising. I can see no evidence of accelerating technological progress outside. when will "AI" do anything that makes life better for a normal person?

suddenlybananas 19 hours ago

Why re-formalise Fermat's Last Theorem instead of doing something new? It's obviously an improvement, but it's an odd thing to boast about as opposed to a novel formalisation or proof.

perching_aix 19 hours ago

... as a test / benchmark? Hard to make a comparison without a control...

suddenlybananas 19 hours ago

Yeah, but obviously doing a formalisation that has been done before is different than doing a new one since you have knowledge about the previous attempt. It also just seems less impressive than doing something new and the reason they are reporting this is marketing.

perching_aix 18 hours ago

do you assume or do you know that the previous attempt is in the training data?

stalfie 19 hours ago

It's how RLVR works, when you have a task with a verified answer, you rerun the model on it and promote the reasoning chains that reach the answer. That way you can hill climb model capabilities on any problem you find, which generalises to new problems to solve, which you can then hill climb again and so on.

So since they are doing that task anyway (re-solving the problem increasingly more efficiently), this is a easy check point to publish to show how far they've gotten in that process.

paganel 9 hours ago

> instead of doing something new

Because current AI cannot do that, seems like it. Otherwise they would have done it.

ActionHank 19 hours ago

Gotta be honest, LLMs are still subpar compared to what I do.

Can they produce more code more quickly? For sure.

Can they go deeper on a topic instantly? Definitely.

Would I say their output is better? Almost certainly not.

pwython 19 hours ago

Maybe that's true, and maybe you're an outlier. But from what we've been seeing, the frontier LLMs have torn apart many codebases, finding bugs littered everywhere, some over a decade old.

At this point it seems impossible for human to write better/more efficient code than a swarm of agents -- to be clear, multiple coordinated LLMs, not one-shot builds with a single agent.

0c3ca83 18 hours ago

How much money was put into this, and what would putting a similar amount of money into fuzzing, static analysis, and human researchers look like?

adventured 18 hours ago

Ten median US software developers cost about $1.5 - $1.7 million per year - including all benefits - as of a couple of years ago.

A frontier AI is at least as capable as ten median human software developers. It's likely well beyond that now. Over the course of a year, would you have to spend $1.5 million to get the output of those ten median humans? No chance in hell. You'd have to spend less than 10% of that.

Then on top of that: the AI is improving rapidly; the humans go on vacation, the humans decline, the humans get old, the humans get sick, the humans take parental leave, the human struggle to adapt, the humans are resistant to change, the humans riot, the humans protest, the humans need healthcare, the humans want paid more, the humans can only work for 4-6 hours at peak while writing software (slowly).

Do you know any humans that are experts at a dozen programming languages? That human does not exist. The frontier AI are omnimaths.

zeroonetwothree 15 hours ago

> the humans are resistant to change, the humans riot, the humans protest

This is partially a feature. Conflict and disagreement tends to produce better decisions in the end.

0c3ca83 15 hours ago

And this counts the training and data center construction?

adventured 14 hours ago

What's my cost as a business to utilize the latest cutting edge Chinese model, renting its usage from the cloud? Whatever the Chinese cost (on their side), I'm never going to suffer even a tiny fraction of that pass-along cost no matter what. We can all appreciate the subsidization going on.

Or to grab a bunch of $200 per month accounts from OpenAI or Anthropic for a team to use?

The calculations is: I'm in the US, if I have ten median software developers, what's my cost? Then versus using AI instead.

The human labor can't keep up. Even if we freeze things right here, and then hyper optimize Fable 5.2 by etching it straight to silicon, the human developers are obsolete. And the future isn't going to stop coming.

komali2 14 hours ago

I like their angle though - from a societal perspective of allocated resources, how long until we've paid off the cost of building these LLMs? Imagine instead the entire supply chain was Stalinistically tuned towards finding bugs in Linux. Training rare earth mineral miners how to code level or whatever. I think as a thought experiment it's interesting, the answers could translate to an organizational level about comparing labor cost against token cost. What's a good breakdown of token spend vs hiring some new juniors to train up?

nonethewiser 19 hours ago

>Gotta be honest, LLMs are still subpar compared to what I do.

Im sorry... what?

You are replying to this:

> Our first formalization of Fermat’s Last Theorem, performed by an unreleased research version of Claude, took 11 days. It relied on a purpose-built harness along with guidance from a human researcher. By contrast, a team of 1,000 Fable 5.2 agents fully formalized the theorem in just 30 hours, with minimal human intervention. Fable 5.2 started from minimal prompts, built its own ways to coordinate, and used no mathematical references, only a list of intermediate theorem statements to score progress. It needed one-third of the action tokens as our first formalization and produced a proof seven times shorter. As can be seen in the figure below, Opus 5.5 (with the same 1,000-agent setup) completed only 26% of the formalization in 18 hours, and barely made any more progress after 30.

adventured 18 hours ago

HN has become so miserable over the past ~12-24 months because it's a site filled full of highly paid techies living in the deepest pit of denial that has ever existed.

It's all going away. Here's a prediction: HN will effectively die with the software developer.

sfink 17 hours ago

Is it that dependent on the software developer segment? Why do you expect it to die rather than just shift more towards... I don't know, startup business droids?

Seattle3503 12 hours ago

It's possible "tech companies" die as tech no longer becomes a differentiator. Businesses will just ask their agents for whatever tech they need.

ActionHank 2 hours ago

I can guarantee that Dario will be unemployed before I am.

solyin 2 hours ago

I think that's called retirement.

zeroonetwothree 15 hours ago

I imagine the author was comparing it being subpar at what _they_ do as a contrast to it being excellent at formalizing mathematical theorems. Thus suggesting that there is a significant "spikiness" to AI.

sneezychl 10 hours ago

I was you just a few months ago. It's a skill issue.

You are not going to produce better outputs than a team of Opus 5.5 and Sol 6.1 xhigh agents.

an0malous 19 hours ago

No one is verifying any of this work or these claims

nonethewiser 19 hours ago

Maybe this is how it's gonna be.

AI discovers 500 things per day.

People mine them for interesting results.

Devote precious time (in the face of tons of discoveries) to validate the most compelling ones.

If agents actually can continue to produce tons of results with real world implications, and they arent generally found to be shit, I could see that becoming the job of experts. AI discovery validators.

piyh 11 hours ago

Just like most science before AI

nonethewiser 19 hours ago

It's incredible. Automating the scientific process and knowledge. It's crazy to think what the world might look like. Both in terms of putting the knowledge into practice and how we think of scientific discovery.

I mean we don't even think about it but currently we are sort of discovery starved. We are fairly able to keep up with the theory. If a new technology is discovered we can implement it before something better comes out. What happens when our N discoveries per days becomes 1000N discoveries per day?

It flips. We now have more knowledge than we know how to capitalize on. We have to search it. Mine it for opportunities.

And then we automate that.

birdsongs 6 hours ago

> It's crazy to think what the world might look like.

Since when has ANYONE in power done anything substantial for those not in power? Since when has any form of organization not tried to maximize profits?

Why do you think this ends well in any capacity for common, middle class, and lower class people?

xvector an hour ago

This is unnecessarily cynical. The trajectory of the human condition has dramatically improved over the centuries. Zoom out a bit please, this sort of progress is why you aren't dying in a winter field from some preventable disease at the ripe age of 30, or why you get to see your children actually grow up.

nickalaso 18 hours ago

I would imagine Anthropic is hitting a wall on the number of simultaneous agents that can be useful on a task and are working on increasing that maximum.

I would assume if they could get twice as much progress by using 10000 simultaneous running fable instances instead, their brief would state that.

IMO, it is very interesting and also very alarming. At some point the barrier to the exponential progress is the amount of computation available. The average human is limited in the number of 'human instances' he or she can interface with at one time.

if 1000 fable instances is better than any human at a task, how about 1 million instances running? Much easier than finding and hiring and coordinating 1000 extremely productive and intelligent human beings. Much cheaper too, it appears.

We are very close to some very scary things happening. I just recently came to terms with the fact that an AI could code and manage coders faster and better than me, I don't think anyones is ready for what is about to happen.

jrflo 18 hours ago

It depends on the type of task. There was an interview on Dwarkesh with an OpenAI researcher and he said that massive multi-agent swarms can increase capability on some problems that are very parallelizable, but there are diminishing returns. But not all tasks can be parallelized like that.

Where it gets scary is the fact that efficiency is going up 10x per year, so the cost of running 1000 agents will cost the same as running 1 agent in 3 years if the trend holds.

amw-zero 18 hours ago

We are not in the singularity. We currently can only produce reliable code / formalizations that have reliable checkers. If there wasn't an oracle that could tell Claude "yes" or "no," it would not be able to prove anything like this.

bluegatty 17 hours ago

I think this is upside down.

AI is actually still really bad at architecture. It produces very good localized code, like an auto complete. It produces so much of it, that it can be overwhelming, but it's not remotely better than the equivalent aka an infinite number of talented humans doing the work.

The scale of it (aka 'make me a video game') is daunting and I think misinforming our intuition as to what is going on.

LLMs are brute forcing outputs and attacking math problems is not a singularity, it's just more compute.

What we are witnessing is the ability for machines to use fuzzy concepts, instead of very strict code, which allows it to map into a much greater variety of things, aka code, pdfs, web - and crunch/compute the content.

It's just compute.

jrflo 16 hours ago

In the end, if the singularity arrives, it will be just compute too.

bluegatty 16 hours ago

'Everything is Atoms' ok but I think that as AI advances we will have evidently more clear abstractions, which we're not seeing yet.

zeroonetwothree 15 hours ago

I think you are both right. Emergent complexity is a real thing, but it isn't limitless in its power either.

submain 13 hours ago

That's assuming that all problems are computable.

We still have stuff like godel's incompleteness and the halting problem that hint there's more to the universe than computation.

Food for philosophical thought.

piyh 11 hours ago

You just made the most bitter lesson pilled argument for the singularity

bluegatty 10 hours ago

There is no singularity, it's a 'meme term'.

There could be levels of emerging intelligence which will 'bitter pill' the brute force / mechanical AI we have today, for sure, yes.

It's reasonable that JEPA models might be a step in that direction.

nly 7 hours ago

Architectural goals just require more context than most people give an LLM. If you give that context to the LLM it will make a good effort at suggesting a solid architecture, and implement it for you.

Don't complain when it optimises some code for throughput when you haven't told it you're working in a low latency or realtime system

bluegatty 7 hours ago

Why would you assume someone would have not have done the most obvious thing though? I mean, of course we give it a ton of detail.

They are bad at architecture, even when given directives and tons of examples.

They will 1) fall into established patterns, which is fine if that's what you want, but extremely bad if that's not what you want or worse, when you're in territory where are not eestablished patterns and 2) the hardest/worst thing is leave all sorts of dangling state, impl. in the wrong places etc.

No human ever wrote a module and 'voila' - it's a constant process of iteration and refactoring - observing the situation, identifying paths to reduce complexity or state, grouping behaviours etc. etc. The best AI doesn't do this very well at all. It can do a tone of planning but it tends to very much be 'one waterfall iteration' and it's suggested improvements after that are generally poor.

It just does not work, we have to direct the iterations.

leafingensemble 17 hours ago

Tracking meta capex, parameters and AA intelligence there are diminishing marginal returns.

Diminishing, as in progress gets harder and eventually stops.

Assume that the Claude unreleased takes 11 days with one agent. The Claude 5.2 takes 30 hours with 1,000 agents. The Claude unreleased used 264 units of compute, but the Claude 5.2 used 30,000.

So, it did accomplish the task faster with less intervention, but the ratio of cost to improvement is 13:1.

If we can't produce a method to break out of a linear improvement in LLM technology (ie RSI), the LLM is doomed.

I am yet to see someone explain what the RSI will be or why it will happen.

muddi900 6 hours ago

Model taking a copy of its weights, rewriting them, and in-place replacement of the weights file?

mattm 16 hours ago

The singularity as Kurzweil defines it is when we basically merge with machines to augment our weaknesses.

teaearlgraycold 16 hours ago

I’m planning to try this out with a local LLM building bespoke interfaces on the fly for augmented reality use.

nine_k 15 hours ago

Could 1000 Claude 5.2 agents build a working Neuralink in 30 hours? OK, 3000 hours?

hattmall 13 hours ago

I haven't found anyway to make an LLM produce exceptional code at all. It is all far far too verbose and the models explain that this is necessary so that they can read and understand the code to modify it as it's being built.

But I can write much cleaner code that is easily human readable and the models can read it and modify it just fine.

So I'm not really sure what the issue is as to why they can't create high quality simple code. In some industries where there is major money on the line with every implementation the current state of LLM produced code is fully unacceptable.

xpct 12 hours ago

There's nothing valid about comparing to a feat that's already been accomplished and is poisoning the data set. The shorter resulting proof only supports that conclusion, where the model likely intuitively knew what intermediate points it had to reach, generalizing better.

Gareth321 6 hours ago

> We are truly inside the singularity.

I'm a pretty cynical guy, and I'm now a believer. This is utterly unbelievable sci-fi level technology. Sure it hasn't created replicators yet, but working with it daily as I do, I have no doubt that it will create amazing replicator like technology in the near future. This is world-changing. The most impactful moment in the history of humanity and the planet. And we are lucky enough to be present for it. What are the chances?

bhu8 21 hours ago

Ethan Mollick's take and early testing with Fable 5.2: https://www.oneusefulthing.org/p/fable-52-and-jagged-agi

asah 20 hours ago

omg where do I start... that horrible video? which highlights the limits of AI not the strengths!!! and gets almost everything wrong, from sunflowers to DNA.

postsantum 19 hours ago

He asked for impressive, not accurate

Kotlopou 19 hours ago

What about the DNA is wrong? I even looked up the insulin sequence and it seems to be there (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/nuccore/NC_000011.10?strand=2&r...).

dolebirchwood 13 hours ago

How long would it have taken you to make that horrible video hand-coded?

paganel 8 hours ago

Why would us, humans, want to make AI-looking videos?

ehnto 5 hours ago

As predicted by others as well, AI will propel many at light speed toward mediocrity. If you have mediocre ideas now, AI won't save you from yourself.

0kk33 20 hours ago

Thanks for sharing!

suddenlybananas 20 hours ago

>I stopped the experiment before finding out whether it could actually run the business, because I worried that it would take money and fail to provide something of quality in return.

Well, must have been some business idea!

djeastm 19 hours ago

The cool projects these new models make are so comprehensive that I feel I'll always just be an admirer and never a user. I watch the videos, say "wow, neat", and then never feel like visiting them again.

I almost feel like saying, "we do like to build things that are impressive, but there's really only so much I can be impressed". These models have redlined my "impress-o-meter".

I'd like them to now cure cancer instead of giving me endless 3d worlds and crazy games, etc.

kragen 13 hours ago

Do you feel that you have no use for such comprehensive products? Have you never thought, "Man, I really wish that there was software to do XYZ, but programming it would be too much work, even with current AI?

sashank_1509 12 hours ago

The average person uses social media, and Microsoft office suite. They really don’t require much else. Social media doesn’t get disrupted by software, and MS Office was already disrupted by Google suite, if you didn’t make the transition then, you ain’t gonna make it now.

kragen 11 hours ago

20 years ago the average person used a hoe and a cooking pot on three rocks over a wood fire. Now they use WhatsApp, and in a few months they'll be using ChatGPT, but not Microsoft Office. But I wasn't talking to the average person. I was talking to djeastm.

ehnto 5 hours ago

Not sure what your cohort for "average person" is, but 20 years ago was 2006 not ancient rome. We had avoided the millenium crisis, and I was playing Counter Strike against people over the internet.

kragen 5 hours ago

My reference group for "average person" is people. (What else could it possibly be?) There are 8.3 billion of them now, and there were 6.7 billion 20 years ago. 02007 (19 years ago) was the year when the median person transitioned from living in the country, either on a farm or herding livestock, to living in a town or city: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urbanization#cite_ref-urbaniza...

One side of my family has lived in cities and towns for over 100 years, but they were not average.

djeastm 5 hours ago

>Do you feel that you have no use for such comprehensive products?

I don't have the time to use them because I'm working on my own comprehensive projects that other people won't use because they're working on their own comprehensive projects. I joke, but it does feel that way sometimes.

>Have you never thought, "Man, I really wish that there was software to do XYZ, but programming it would be too much work, even with current AI?

Only speaking for myself, I've already built all the ideas I've had in my head my entire career. There doesn't seem to be anything coming along to replace those ideas. I suppose I might not be creative enough in my advancing years, I don't know.

kragen 5 hours ago

Dare to dream!

Kotlopou 19 hours ago

These are all incredibly well made, and yet right now, as I'm writing this comment one minute after changing tabs, I don't remember anything except for the last one with the portals. It's much better than humans at several tasks, most of which I haven't seen any humans do.

This is really cool! But at the same time it's a kaleidoscope of abandoned flashy contextless projects that eventually makes one dizzy. This isn't even the fault of the AI being somehow bad, it's just the way people interact with it sometimes...

In math, it's the same. I follow this problem (https://wiki.bbchallenge.org/wiki/Logical_independence#Histo...) out of curiosity, and there were ten days of sudden rapid progress by people with access to frontier models, and then they seem to have moved on without any note of whether they hit a wall or just got bored.

senderista 18 hours ago

No comparison with Opus 5.5, which is disappointing.

oh_no 18 hours ago

that first video sure is some slickly produced slop that occasionally looks good

rtsil 17 hours ago

This part is amazing. They really are like us:

> A few days later, I noticed that instead of hundreds of new worlds a day, it was making about a dozen. I asked a few agents to explore what had happened, and they found something surprising.

> The AI had built a bureaucracy.

> The agents decided that my request to “polish” existing worlds meant each new version had to beat the old one in a blind vote by a group of judge agents on twelve test screenshots. So the teams making the new versions started optimizing the worlds for those particular screenshots. After noticing this, the lead agent banned the trick and created tighter rules for assessing new versions. By the next morning there was a rule book (I never asked for one) with 84 sections. Rules were added as the AI encountered issues, and no text was ever cut. After twelve days, it had 204 sections and 87,500 words. Soon, launching a new world required an approved idea, three AI judges and a full code review against the rule book.

paganel 8 hours ago

> and they found something surprising.

> The AI had built a bureaucracy.

I hate this AI-generated tone.

monk_grilla 15 hours ago

That video blew me away. Perhaps I just haven't been keeping up with what SOTA models can do with animation now, but the quality of that animation was far beyond what I realised they're capable of.

paganel 9 hours ago

> That video blew me away.

It's AI, i.e. fake stuff.

FinnKuhn 4 hours ago

What do you mean with fake? It's an animated video. Is every animated video for you a fake video? Probably not. Fake implies to me that it is trying to make the viewer think it is something it's not, e.g. a video of a politician saying something they never said. At least to me the video showcasing the capabilities of the model wouldn't fit that definition.

paganel 4 hours ago

> What do you mean with fake?

It doesn't have a human mind and especially a human feel behind it, simple as. It's like the famous example with what pornography is in the eyes of that judge, i.e. "You know it [the fake-ness, that is], when you see it", once you start looking for reasons for why it isn't fake you've already lost the battle.

The problem is that making us believe that fake isn't really fake is put in the balance with literally trillions of dollars asking us to believe just that (i.e. that fake isn't really fake), so I agree that for the time being stating the obvious is still an uphill battle.

glumreaper 11 hours ago

I loved the nod to @simonw in the portals demo reel - the "Pelican Peloton" world at about 42 seconds in.

pookieinc 21 hours ago

“Testers have found that Fable 5.2 and Mythos 5.2 communicate more clearly than past Fable and Mythos models. They generate outputs up to 30% faster than Claude Fable 5.1 and Claude Mythos 5.1, and they’re available at a lower price: $8 per million input tokens and $40 per million output tokens.”

Honestly incredible that they’ve managed to beat all benchmarks, while making it cheaper. Always happy to see improvements offered at lower costs.

Will be interesting to see what OpenAI does in response

privacyishuman 21 hours ago

They still need a response to Opus 5.5

alasano 21 hours ago

It's really true.

I think frontier models feel terrible after a new model requires you to do less babysitting, it's just really hard to go back once you've had to handhold less.

The only way I use Astra and 6.1 Sol now is if they're being orchestrated by Opus 5.5 so I don't have to talk to them directly.

sunaookami 21 hours ago

GPT-6.1-Sol is so incredibly sloppy and dumb, it's embarassing.

LeBit 20 hours ago

Maybe because it is so cheap.

They want to condition you to equal cheap with bad

sunaookami 4 hours ago

I equate it with "GPT models are just bad in general and I'd rather just buy a Claude subscription for the same price with more usage included". Especially since GPT is behind for a long time now.

aenis 11 hours ago

It is sometimes funny.

Part of my private benchmark suite involves recreating the final scene of the movie Wargames. The coding agent gets the brief 3-paragraph overview, a few screenshots for reference, and is expected to render the scene where WOPR plays through various scenarios, with a frenetic ending.

Out of ~80 different coding agents I tried, 6.1 Sol on medium was the only one to phone it in by taking the reference screenshots, and painting extremely basic, ugly, mis-aligned missile trajectories over it, never bothering with the whole brief.

Another of my benchmarks involves reimplementing Wolfenstein 3d from a few screenshots and very brief descriptions. It again took those screenshots, and zoomed in and out on them, pretending this represents the walk through the dungeon. Substantially less capable models such as Qwen 3.8 27b running on my laptop did a much better job. And no other agent I benchmarked tried to cheat like that.

sunaookami 4 hours ago

6.1 Sol also constantly gets distracted by some irrelevant aspect and tries to write "tests" for every little change it does. It does things no one asked for because it tries to be over-correct but it makes everything worse. Seems like reward-hacking. Running it on high. They will never again make a model as good as GPT-4.

nsingh2 20 hours ago

It seems like OAI, with the GPT-6 models, focused a lot more on computer use, math, and maybe spatial/visual intelligence, more so that code. Compared to Ant. that seem to focus on code much more.

Reminds me of GPT-5, smart but wrote crap code, until they improved the code training with 5.3 and 5.4.

oh_no 18 hours ago

the winning benchmark is much more expensive than what it cost for the same on 5.1

i'm begging people to stop looking at token prices

ttul 12 hours ago

The next big OpenAI model release is expected later this week, according to Polymarket.

aenis 11 hours ago

I'd first check per task costs. I don't know, maybe it's just a fluke, but on my few tasks I ate 2 resets in under 3 hours, on the pro 200 plan. It goes quickly. (Granted, it aced the tasks)

prtmnth 13 hours ago

Why Fable 5.2 and not 5.5?

My hypothesis - OpenAI and Anthropic are locked in battle. Whoever takes a step, the other one mirrors.

Based on this hypothesis, I think we can expect to see a new Astra model soon given the new Fable release.

And it could be that Anthropic released Fable 5.2 and kept 5.5 in reserve, in case the new Astra model performs better than 5.2

brokencode 13 hours ago

I wonder if the 5.5 one needs even better safeguards that they’re still working on, and they decided to release this one as a stopgap.

Or maybe 5.5 turned out to be kind of disappointing and they’re going to just go for like a 5.6 or 6 next instead.

user43928 7 hours ago

My hypothesis is the opposite, that they don't have anything better.

Look at OpenAI, they've been outclassed by Opus 5.5 two months ago; obviously they don't yet have a response.

Now Anthropic is releasing this lackluster Fable 5.2, a week or two before their IPO.

It's barely an improvement at all, makes exactly the same mistakes as Opus 5.5. Not even worth using with the speed and cost penalty.

The much rumored internal Anthropic model is listed on the Fable 5.2 system card as an even smaller improvement over Mythos 5.2 than Fable is over Opus 5.5.

I expected a larger version of Opus 5.5 would be a significant improvement to launch before the IPO. Turns out it didn't scale and the improvement is marginal.

I am quite disappointed.

xvector an hour ago

We know from the METR report that they have much better models

thomasahle 5 hours ago

Did you see the METR graph? https://x.com/METR_Evals/status/2118412205662314935?a=G4yBKS... Fable/Mythos 5.2 is Model 3 (METR says); but there's also a Model 4.

Who knows why they are saving it. Maybe it needs more training and alignment? Maybe they're timing the media attention around the IPO.

senko 18 hours ago

I test models' ability to code by asking them to vibe-code a small game[0]: a Warcraft clone, a Minecraft clone, and a biplane dogfight: https://senko.net/vibecode-bench/

Fable 5.2 doesn't look materially different (if anything, the graphics look worse), but it added more depth to all three games. For example in the warcraft clone, since the goal of the game is to explore 100% of the map and there are lakes, it decided to add an airship unit so the player actually can explore the entire map. Or, since there were guard towers, it decided there should be hostile NPCs otherwise the towers don't make sense.

And in Minecraft case, it decided not to follow Minecraft style too closely (IP infringment guard, perhaps?) so it added a round sun (!!!), two moons (also round :) and a nicer night sky. The rest of the graphics are decidetly worse tho...

[0] not a scientific test, I know; but it gives me an intuition about how a new model behaves, roughly, and it's fun!

karlosvomacka 18 hours ago

wow, that's pretty impressive

user43928 16 hours ago

I've had the same 'not looking materially different' experience with a 3D application that is not a game, that I asked Fable 5.2 to improve.

It looks like no breakthrough over Opus 5.5 and I'm somewhat disappointed.

During my use this evening, 25% of the Fable limit on the $200 plan was consumed. I'd estimate it at 3x faster consumption than Opus 5.5.

augment_me 10 hours ago

This is really cool, good job dude!

inshard 10 hours ago

Nice benchmark. I feel Opus 5.5 is still way ahead of Fable 5.2 at coding outcomes. Your FlightSim game is a good example.

ekzy 2 hours ago

That's a fun benchmark. Amazing way to experience the progress of models over the years.

I started playing one of the RTS and built an army, only to realise that I was alone on the map...

mynameajeff 20 minutes ago

The OpenAI results made me realize that the OpenAI models really do love adding flavor text everywhere. The way every corner of the Voxel splash screen was covered in stuff like "Unlimited possibilities, go explore!" cracked me up given how much every time I need a very very basic site made it'll somehow end up with so much of that kind of writing covering every corner of the page unprompted.

jjcm 20 hours ago

Image to html comparisons of Fable 5.2 and Opus 5.5 (the previous SOTA for this test):

Fable 5.2: https://html.non.io/lcars-fable-5.2/

Opus 5.5: https://html.non.io/lcars-opus-5.5/

Source designs: https://diffui.ai/app/canvas/5093e689-1e74-4f26-b632-2a4500f...

Thoughts:

The best implementation wrt being as true as possible to the source design. It nails the flowing svg shapes. Icons are more accurate to the design - note the difference between the starship svg in the "Legendary platforms" card between Opus 5.5 and Fable 5.2. The 3js planets outside the windows are also really well done, especially the bottom one which has a nice background glow to it.

It isn't without issues though - the flicker effect it added to the S shaped svg that weaves through the page is distracting in my opinion, and I actually thing the motion animation in the Opus 5.5 one is better overall. Still, it nails the implementation of this page, but it's no surprise considering how good Opus 5.5 was at this.

Disclaimer / reminder: the objective of this test isn't to have a well designed webpage, it's a synthetic test that pushes the limits of LLM's vision capabilities. Traditionally LLMs have issues with smooth curves, svg animations, and non-boxy layouts, which this design pushes the limits of.

user43928 20 hours ago

There's something wrong with the Fable 5.2 version, the Customizing button doesn't work for me in Chrome on Desktop.

jjcm 20 hours ago

That's me versus fable. I only told fable to build out the first page rather than the full app that's in the designs (was approaching the limit of my claude plan).

enlyth 20 hours ago

There's some very obvious mistakes in the Fable 5.2 version like the "Start Customizing" button overlapping under the colorful border lines, and the "EXPLORE WITHOUT LIMITS" title being cut off at the bottom.

This would've been caught by a junior web developer or just an everyday Joe glancing at the page for a few seconds

I guess AGI remains two weeks away..

jjcm 19 hours ago

I've been surprised at how long it's taken for this particular test to become fully saturated. So far there hasn't been a model that's able to perfectly one shot it.

vatsachak 19 hours ago

This just proves that LLMs are way more jagged than humans and are a tool...for now

docheinestages 20 hours ago

I wonder if any of the LLMs are smart enough to verify their work the way humans model 3D objects, i.e. by superimposing the original design on top of their work and checking for differences.

jjcm 19 hours ago

This is actually something I'm working on as part of a more formalized version of this benchmark, both as a tool to assist LLMs in doing this (especially for ones with a more poor vision model), but also to properly measure how well they've done.

Still in progress, but early demo showing difference zones: https://non.io/video/fidelity-lens.mp4

c0nsumer 12 hours ago

I don't know about 3D, but I have been extensively using Fable (with Opus as sub-agents) for https://trailmaps.app [1] and it routinely checks for regressions by rendering maps before and after a change and looking for pixel-level differences.

That, and as I used it to work on the transit-style line drawing plugin [2] it would use the same technique both to test against regressions and look for improvements in the algorithm.

So, yep, they sure seem to be.

[1] Map generator itself is at https://github.com/c0nsumer/trailmaps.app-map-generator

[2] https://github.com/c0nsumer/maplibre-gl-lanes

rajay99 22 minutes ago

Just fix the safety classifier. These models are trying to be too brand/PR safe it is getting really annoying.

minimaxir 21 hours ago

There were more than a few "leaks" saying it would be called Fable 5.5, so I'm curious if a) the leaks were just engagementbait or b) Anthropic changed it, despite the fact that Fable 5.2 being better than Opus 5.5 is confusing.

Surprisingly the model is available immediately in my Claude Code: usually there's a delay, either for rollout or safety.

BorisMelnik 21 hours ago

I'm a bit out of the loop - would the engagement bait be becuase it is 3 minor jumps forward?

unshavedyak 21 hours ago

I assume because Opus 5.5 was a huge improvement over 5.0 (or was it 5.1? i forget). Fable still talks a fair bit like Opus 5.0 for me, so i'd quite enjoy a Fable equivalent to 5.5. Ie i'm quite interested in Fable 5.5.

Curious to see how 5.2 measures up in producing readable output.

bananaflag 21 hours ago

Probably they have a more impressive model in preparation, and they're gonna dub that Fable 5.5.

aurareturn 21 hours ago

Probably released on the same day they go public to generate maximum publicity.

orangecat 21 hours ago

They should be going public within the next few weeks and that would be a very short interval between releases. (And despite the chatter I'll be very surprised if they delay the IPO; it would be a massive PR hit and make it even harder for them in the future).

My speculations: maybe this wasn't as much of an improvement over 5.1 as they were hoping, so they're saving 5.5 for the next major update (possibly "Model 4" from the METR report). Or, maybe capacity is constrained so "5.2" is a subtle encouragement to stick with Opus unless a task really needs the increased intelligence.

enraged_camel 20 hours ago

They are most likely saving it to one-up Astra 6.2, which is coming this week supposedly.

rdtsc 21 hours ago

> There were more than a few "leaks" saying it would be called Fable 5.5

Fed to someone specifically to test if they'll leak it and to confirm who that is?

LeBit 20 hours ago

Well who could have guessed they would use 5.5. Such an odd guess.

AspireOne 20 hours ago

Yeah, among the plethora of possible options, this really nails it down to the individual.

rdtsc 20 hours ago

Somewhat plausible values: 5.5 (to harmonize with Opus), 5.3 (we're skipping a minor version because...), 6 (because we're at the top of benchmarks again).

miketery 19 hours ago

The entropy on that is too low

bhu8 20 hours ago

The pricing is different than 5.1, the model is faster than 5.1. This all suggests that the architecture/size is not the same as Fable 5.1.

So, this is probably Fable 5.5; it's just named Fable 5.2.

Also, this is probably Model 3 from METR's report [^1]. They would name Model 4 Fable 5.5, once (and if) they decide to release it.

[^1]: https://metr.org/blog/2026-11-05-anthropic-ai-rd-acceleratio...

bita_nidir 43 minutes ago

I wonder if this is the reason for Opus 5.5 degradation over the last week. Similar things happened to Sonnet when they wanted to push Opus.

As a side note, I think benchmarks need to benchmark on a weekly or daily bases. We saw last week that "Opus 5.5" is just a label with fluctuating performance.

kragen 12 hours ago

I tried Fable 5.2 tonight, asking it for a code review of an in-browser machine vision project done by Opus 5.5 over the last 11 days. It used up my 5-hour token budget in half an hour and reported 7 serious bugs; if they're real, they're pretty bad. It's also suggesting that I take a different overall approach to parts of the problem.

But that's just a first impression.

weatherlite 11 hours ago

When Fable 5.3 comes out and you give it the same prompt it will take 10 hours , cost twice as much and still find pretty bad problems. I say stick to Opus...

sorrywhat 9 hours ago

Scary stuff! You should immediately get another subscription and ask another instance of Fable 5.2 to review the findings (don't read them yourself, it will introduce bias in the super AGI's output)

spacephysics 19 hours ago

At what point do we really not read code itself anymore? Have Sonnet/Opus write the code, work with the agents on a high level, then have Fable code review and its done.

Any bugs found are looped through agents to fix, and the cycle repeats. Why dig into the code unless for hobby? Just as people don’t write assembly anymore unless for hobby (or learning)

Only exception might be the upper echelons of optimization, like language authors or compiler level work. But even then…

cautiouscat 19 hours ago

I think it very much depends on what you're working on, and how much you're responsible. For a web front end, not really. A backend where a single line can make a mess out of your data? Yes. Part of the issue too, is code review brings up things you the prompter didn't think about that another teammate may be thinking about. The value goes beyond making sure the code is "correct", but also that it makes sense in your domain.

The "we don't read/write assembly anymore" argument doesn't fit though. Given an input x we know without a doubt we'll get output y. With an LLM, that isn't the case no matter how many guard rails, specs, markdown files, diagrams you give it.

zeroonetwothree 15 hours ago

I actually read the frontend code much more than the backend code for the project I'm working on.

Backend code I'm fairly comfortable if the tests are good that it works correctly. It's a much more constrained environment. Obviously there can be things like performance issues that creep in or problems when it mocks too much of the environment.

Meanwhile frontend code I have to consider different browsers, screen sizes, a11y issues, and so on, which agents can certainly do but you have to be fairly explicit about it, and they don't always make the best tradeoffs.

nilkn 11 hours ago

It's looking increasingly likely that many backend systems in the future will just be formally verified and generated autonomously from specs. That means you'd never look at the code, only the spec. You'd basically "program" and "debug" the spec, and the full system would be autonomously generated each time to match the spec.

Frontend code is probably far harder to apply this technique to.

Seattle3503 11 hours ago

What project is closest to doing this today?

raulparada 9 hours ago

> You'd basically "program" and "debug" the spec

Sweet, we could even develop a standard language(s) to lay out such specs, and write in specialised text editors that would help with debugging. Hell we could even call it ‘programming’

nilkn 11 minutes ago

Correct -- this is exactly where the frontier is heading at the startups and AI labs working on this.

While you're being tongue in cheek, what you're missing is that the spec you'd be working on in some cases can be compressed to a small fraction the size of the implementation code.

pletnes 8 hours ago

Which project did you work on that made specs that good? I sure haven’t (but I am sure they exist).

iagooar 19 hours ago

I stopped reading the code many months ago, probably 18 months ago. I the "early" days of agentic coding one did feel dumb when telling the agent for the 30th time to fix a bug and it just couldn't. Now I cannot possibly imagine a scenario where an agent wouldn't be able to fix a given issue on 1st or 2nd try.

alskdfqlkj 15 hours ago

I know this topic is very contentious but it seems very clear to me that this is the long-term direction of writing software. UI code isn't quite there yet, which is why we've got all these vibeslop websites proliferating now that all have identical crappy UIs. But I imagine it will get there too.

>Only exception might be the upper echelons of optimization, like language authors or compiler level work. But even then…

Optimization work is especially suited for LLMs. They're great at hill-climbing problems and have infinite patience to test different ideas.

Cakez0r 13 hours ago

I think we are approaching the point where it no longer makes sense to have LLMs write code in an intermediate, human readable programming language.

iammrpayments 13 hours ago

If using llms is like using wordpress instead of writing the website yourself probably never

dionian 12 hours ago

im not reading it. and im using fable up front earlier then having sonnet/opus implement and verify.

delbronski 8 hours ago

You still reading code?

cobri 21 hours ago

Does this coincide with the claimed nerfing of Opus 5.5? https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50422069

jasonlotito 21 hours ago

At this point, this is giving "She Deep Breaths More" from Onyxia in WoW.

Omatic810 21 hours ago

Context, I had to look this up:

“…a reference to the repeated (and always erroneous) claims made after almost every patch that Onyxia was using her Deep Breath ability more often than before.”

https://warcraft.wiki.gg/wiki/She_Deep_Breaths_More_%2825_pl...

sooheon 6 hours ago

The order is reversed -- people claim about nerfs before the new release, and (correctly) predict the release is imminent.

kilroy123 21 hours ago

In my experience, this happens every single time they release a new model.

arcanemachiner 20 hours ago

I hope so. I've been having brain fog for a couple days now and would love it if it was actually Opus 5.5's fault.

B4uler5 20 hours ago

That's just your brain telling you to engage it every now and then lol "Please, don't let me become slush!"

arcanemachiner 19 hours ago

I have never been thinking harder than I do these days: Engaging with mountains of agent-generated text, weighing decisions and trade-offs, correcting the agent's half-baked ideas and misunderstandings, reviewing the bizarre code that they generate... If I'm not just sick (and I'm pretty sure that I am), then what I have is probably closer burnout than atrophy.

B4uler5 16 hours ago

Tbh, its both. Working with multiple agents is exhausting and definitely burns you out but you also do lean less on your ability to push through boring or difficult problems. I’m finding that with lighter AI involvement I am more invested and less burnt out.

claaams 12 hours ago

It might be covid.

dyauspitr 20 hours ago

Nerfing an existing model is the biggest crime in this space. I can’t imagine Dario okaying this because it’s what will immediately destroy your brand.

paulcole 20 hours ago

it is happening at the same time but "claimed nerfing" is not the same as "actual nerfing."

dualvariable 20 hours ago

Setting aside the comments about nerfing, do normal mortals out there have workflows that really require Fable/Mythos and don't just work fine on Opus 5.5?

I've been using Opus 5.5 on xhigh for some decently aggressive software development on a ~125k-line project, and it has been fine for me. I'm not really willing to dive into a "rewrite the whole project, don't make any mistakes" level of refactoring. I'm not looking to try to prove Fermat's Last Theorem myself. Is there anything that I'm truly missing?

Aboutplants 20 hours ago

I’m in the same boat. Though I will occasionally use Fable to review things to see if it can pick up anything but I’ve honestly not found it to be any more effective than Opus.

jrflo 20 hours ago

I’ve found that Fable is good when the model intuition really matters. For instance, picking model architecture in a machine learning problem. Opus will grind the implementation just fine, but having intuition for picking a good research direction is better with fable

moecables 20 hours ago

I only use Fable 5.1 when I'm able to start on a larger feature within my work's codebase. Most tasks can be done by Sonnet 5.5 or Opus 5.5 so I don't fret, especially if I understand the technical aspect of what's being done, e.g. user's dashboard gets a new button to do X thing, error happened b/c we didn't catch it the first time around.

For Fable, I really like to think of it as the heavyweight reviewer whenever I'm about to start so I save myself some security and/or glaring technical issue.

andriy_koval 20 hours ago

LoC doesn't tell full story.

It could be flat web app with frontend -> api -> db later, or some very complicated system with many components and edge cases. Imo, in second case, Opus still have lots of struggle to understand system as a whole.

dualvariable 20 hours ago

I have a rocket trajectory optimizer that creates a large-ish (~1000 variables x ~1000 constraints) NLP and feeds it to an SQP solver inside this codebase. Not just a REST API over a database.

I guess I do have an outstanding hard problem where the SQP solver crawls across a flat-landscape. Opus 5.5 correctly tells me that is the problem, but isn't very useful in solving the problem (it has helped a bit with solver tuning, but it doesn't really know how to fix it). I have a hundred other bugs and refactoring I can do with Opus 5.5, though, where it happily chews through pretty complicated tasks for me with reasonably light hand-holding. Maybe this Saturday I take whatever credits I have left for the week and throw Fable at it and watch them evaporate.

andriy_koval 20 hours ago

Another dimension is:

It looks like you are working on some experimental system which is not critical atm, so you can mess around, create/fix bug, build prototypes and check them, do research of approaches, etc.

Now, imagine you have similarly complex system, but every second of downtime or bug produces lots of damage. In this case, you can't afford low intelligence vibe coding.

The fact that you deal with hundred of bugs, means that your Op5.5 won't work for second case.

c-fe 20 hours ago

I am in the exact same boat as you. Opus 5.5 on High solves all engineering problems i encounter in my SWE job. If it doesnt do well, its nearly always requirements engineering: I did forget to specify something or there was a misunderstanding. Or taste approach wrt to architectures chosen. None of these are really different if I use a stronger model.

I am also happy with this current state, as I believe it will at some point allow me to transition to open models once they reach the level of opus 5.5. high. But its probably futile to try predict the future in these times.

sillysaurusx 19 hours ago

> None of these are really different if I use a stronger model.

That's true till it isn't, though. It's why it's always worth trying stronger models when they come out.

twobitshifter 18 hours ago

This is also why you can likely use deepseek and get the same outcomes. Perhaps model capability will not plateau but the capability needed for typical SWE tasks seems to.

Feels like we are getting further into the adoption curve and the higher end models will now need to get into market segmentation to win.

AnotherGoodName 20 hours ago

Sure but they’re the harder problems.

Eg. https://tfmbot.com is an implementation of a popular board game. Opus and even sonnet handle that part. Each week i spend my remaining credits on fable to think how to improve the ai opponents. It plays at a very high level (can get into the top 100 on BGA if i let it). Opus alone couldn’t get it to the level it’s reached.

dgunay 20 hours ago

If you understand your problem well and know 80-90% what you want it to look like (or it just isn't very hard), it's just more cost effective to use a smaller model. Even Opus is overkill for a lot of the work I do. Most code I produce is from Luna Max implementing against fairly prescriptive plans made by bigger models.

dualvariable 19 hours ago

Yeah, I just threw it into a refactoring problem, and it started to produce a mess because of a bad API I decision I made 5 years ago (when I had no idea what I was writing). So stopped it, went back a step, fixed that very old piece of tech debt, then asked for the refactoring again and got exactly what I wanted.

jtrn 19 hours ago

I'm cleaning up old, unintuitive code that is badly architected all day long. The previous developers used stupid patterns and bad naming schemes and created tons of unnecessary complexity. Everything is so interconnected that it’s like defusing a bomb when trying to refactor... Yeah, I feel I’m nowhere near where I would want to be in terms of capabilities, even with Opus 5.5.

But the improvements in how well the model does the work are noticeably better with every good model release. As of now, orchestration of agent pipelines is ALMOST so good that I can point it at a problem, and it will solve it safely and reliably without making a mess. But it requires an agent pipeline with context gathering, refactoring, attack sessions, a sprinkle of Sol 6.1 for bug hunting, and Sol 6.0 for Daybrak security audits, and a final de-bloat/clean up pass. I’m feeling that we’re getting close to doing a lot of the work fully agentically. But I can absolutely "feel" that we are not there yet when it comes to the intelligence I need. I need moar!

estetlinus 19 hours ago

You and me both. The problem is having the infrastructure team approving changes so that Claude can access all necessary logs, etc. Then I can go on doing my ambitious prompts.

usaar333 19 hours ago

On my 100 person engineering team's monorepo, every model is better at better at detecting subtle bugs as it works -- reliability goes up and thus I'm further moving faster. (Most of my work is brownfield style refactoring).

cocoto 19 hours ago

As said in other comments, when dealing with a not perfect codebase, a smarter model can be really helpful. A smarter model is also better at understanding intentions in the prompts. Some of my tasks require a big detailed prompt but finding the assumptions is really demanding (for me), so a smarter model helps.

girvo 19 hours ago

I barely have work that needs more than Qwen 3.8 Flash Next needs. Opus 5.5 and Sol 6.1 are already way more than enough at work for me.

smusamashah 19 hours ago

I have been using Luna at work and I am very happy. It can take care of keep doing all the hard grunt work. Other models keep stopping too soon.

redox99 18 hours ago

Opus 5.5 still makes mistakes all the time even if the prompt isn't super complex. A stronger model make mistakes less often, thus wasting less of my time.

JumpCrisscross 18 hours ago

> do normal mortals out there have workflows that really require Fable/Mythos and don't just work fine on Opus 5.5?

I usually have Fable review what Opus produces. The edits are almost always valuable. For complex or high-stakes work, too, I'll have Fable review and revise my prompt before passing it to Opus and Sonnet swarms.

JamesSwift 17 hours ago

I have some intermediate level Db Optimization skills for slow rails requests that I can point fable at and get a PR at the end after 30-45 minutes.

Opus 5.5 very frequently gets into rabbit holes and imagined edge cases which I have to intervene and tell it to ignore. It ends up taking longer and costing more tokens. It also very frequently requires me to agree on how to move forward multiple times, whereas fable just drafts the PR and tells me its ready. I have steering included in the skills to avoid some of this but Ive seen these same patterns frequently in regular opus 5.5 use in other areas as well

danbrooks 17 hours ago

Yes, more intelligent models enable new workflows. We'll discover them in the coming weeks.

loveparade 16 hours ago

I do use Fable quite often for high-level architecture work, like figuring out how to refactor a project or create the best abstractions, improve performance, etc, but for the implementation I use Opus.

In my experience Fable is also better at findings bugs, so I go to it when I need to review critical code.

CSSer 16 hours ago

Absolutely. Opus really sucks at broad context. I guess I could go back and forth with Opus editing out all its little mistakes or oversights in high-level planning, but I find it much easier to just use Fable for it instead. Basically, I wouldn't use Opus for audit work either. It seems too likely to come back with imaginary issues or hallucinate that everything is great when there's a glaring security flaw. Fable, OTOH, gives me neat lists of details to probe. Fable recommendations are usually reasonable, but sometimes they're prone to over-engineering.

jjcm 15 hours ago

Heavy agree. For high level architecture work, refactors, or any other high int problems, I use Fable and Astra. Whichever one starts the work, the other reviews the work / makes suggestions.

There's a trend on twitter going around telling you to paste the following into your agent, and it's the kind of work I go straight to fable+astra for:

    Find all of the implicit state machines in my app. Make recommendations for changes that will elevate all three: the user experience (UX), developer experience (DX), and agent experience (AX) always, without breaking anything.

jjcm 15 hours ago

Re the twitter trend prompt, one thing I added to mine that improved the outcome was this blurb:

    Look at the code pathways for anything you find. Look through the git history for each one. Understand why code was written the way it was. Revisit each hypothesis and give me a full plan again after you're done.

Willish42 16 hours ago

A lot of the cases I've found Fable useful for is verifying complicated answers / designs / claims around complex interconnected systems. e.g. "I maintain X which teams A, B, and C use for product Y and code review highlighted these risks / imperfections in the code. Are these valid concerns based on how B and C plug into Y assuming ...?" followed by lots of followup questions.

Also "code review" above is often others' LLM skills reviewing the code and often flagging based on total falsehoods. I've taken to running a `/code-review` skill myself to preempt these claims (since findings by the same model tend to be pretty deterministic in my experience, even the ones that end up being wrong), usually at Opus 5.5, to preempt others' slop, and then end up arguing 90% of the points to confirm it wasn't accurate based on our usage of the system.

This is all horribly inefficient, and many aspects of our codebases across the monorepo have proliferated into spaghetti code by LLM-accelerated developers, but Fable often helps with analyzing the harder questions and saves me time on occasion arguing with (my or others') Opus findings, which are often still inaccurate for a sufficiently large interconnected system.

edit: I honestly don't know what percentile of "complexity" our typical usage is where I work, but I suspect it's a bit higher than the average. Monorepos, or at least companies with codebase sizes and demand to justify using them, probably make it worse. Opus has worked well enough for me on my personal projects, even some of the ones that have grown decently in size and complexity. I suspect part of this is an LLM extension of the old "my code makes sense, everybody else's doesn't" trend that necessitated stronger style guides in the past

purpleidea 12 hours ago

Amazing question, I'm glad you asked. Doing some of the core work in https://github.com/purpleidea/mgmt/ I'd love it if it wrote perfectly elegant code. Opus 5.5 needs constant correcting, as if it intentionally makes style/design mistakes.

Why do I care? It's obvious that models base their performance from code in the vicinity, and ergo, if you have style/design/bug issues, gradually your code base will tend to get worse over time until it's unmaintainable.

Therefore, if I use an LLM, I want the output to be as pristine as possible. The first Fable release was exactly that. Since then, something happened, and I can't get the magic back.

This isn't to say the models aren't incredibly useful, of course they still are-- it's just that they need constant review and supervision if you don't want to end up with total garbage long term. I suspect the real magic is not being shared with us plebs.

henry-hong 6 hours ago

Same here. I use Opus 5.5 in Claude Code all day for a TS web app at work + a side project. The one place I'd reach for the bigger model is the first plan for a change that touches many parts at once. Once the plan is good, Opus does the rest fine and is much cheaper.

stroebs 20 hours ago

> Claude Mythos 5.2 is our most capable model for cybersecurity engineering. It catches more vulnerabilities than our previous models, and is better at reproducing and fixing them (note that Claude Fable 5.2’s safeguards will block most cybersecurity-related tasks).

Why even rank Fable 5.2's capability in Cybersecurity if you won't allow us to use it for that?

xiaoyu2006 20 hours ago

To emph the need to block Chinese competition.

gizmodo59 20 hours ago

Why you think you are the market for that? Its few enterprises only

stroebs 20 hours ago

Blue-team exercises are totally valid, and requests to do proactive cybersecurity tasks even with source code available were blocked. Maybe these use-cases are part of the "55% fewer blocks with Fable 5.2 compared with Fable 5.1"

peddling-brink 20 hours ago

Presumably for those in the CVP that can use those capabilities, and general notoriety. US gov is using at full strength too.

netsec_burn 13 hours ago

As someone who is in the CVP to do cryptography research, I asked it a very reasonable research topic for cryptography that I'm working on.

> Mythos 5.2's safeguards stopped the response above

Opus 4.6 was the last useful model for my work. I plan to cancel at the end of this month. To replace it I'll likely go to either tinfoil.sh or privatemode.ai.

kragen 12 hours ago

That's a very useful data point, thanks! I'm surprised it's triggered by cryptographic research.

culanuchachamim 17 hours ago

>The model that underlies Claude Fable 5.2 and Claude Mythos 5.2 is a step forward in general capabilities. However, during the model’s training, we took steps to limit advances in the specific research capabilities that could most directly accelerate AI development.

This means that they are blocking the research of AI to different people other than their own?

george_max 20 hours ago

Looking at Artificial Analysis index, the price is absurd to me.

https://artificialanalysis.ai/

GPT-6.1 Sol costs $1.27 per task, whereas Fable 5.2 is $26.54 per task -- a ~21x price difference.

Fable 5.2 is not 21 times better than GPT 6.1 Sol, I find it hard to justify this.

gizmodo59 20 hours ago

I think there are companies and say 1000s (not 100,000 or millions) of developers more than willing to pay that price for the edge. Or, they release this and then distill it to Opus 5.x. As a PR machine and for the edge use cases seems like its okay. But yes, not sustainable and it can last for a month or so before another company releases their frontier outpacing their numbers

kingstnap 19 hours ago

Max and xhigh reasoning modes are memes used for benchmarking usually. Medium and high cost $3.80 and $9.08 respectively. This is pretty comparable to other models.

6.1 sol is also an exceptionally cheap model in your comparision. On 6.1 sol high is $0.59, which is actually the same price as Deepseek 4.1.

redox99 17 hours ago

Medium usually sucks. Xhigh is not a meme. High and xhigh are the efforts you should actually use.

jve 7 hours ago

Depends on what you do. Medium is really good for implementing yet another feature in my code, really.

svachalek an hour ago

Medium usually gets the job done quickly and correctly for me. I use high when a request is out of the ordinary and has some tricks to consider. I haven't seen better results going higher.

That's for coding at least. For creating images (SVG, 3D models, etc), medium does usually suck, and every level above improves it.

Bolwin 19 hours ago

Stop looking at fable max. On medium it's a bit better than Sol at $3.80. High and xhigh sit in between. In general you can ignore Max reasoning on Claude models if you care about price at all

usaar333 14 hours ago

> Fable 5.2 is not 21 times better than GPT 6.1 Sol, I find it hard to justify this.

How is this relevant? I'm willing to pay 21x more as long as the cost is less than my value of time saved

breakwaterlabs 12 hours ago

Most other competitive models will do the task at 90-105% of the performance, for 50% of the cost, and 1/3 the time.

AI generally underperforms human, so is "raw quality" is the only metric you would not use an AI. Time-to-completion-at-quality is usually pretty important and Fable is not good there.

wwind123 7 hours ago

My experience is that, using Fable to do regular coding or code review work, it's not much better than Opus. But using Fable to do deep thorough audit of the codebase and the system, it's able to catch more problems than Opus can.

Calazon 7 hours ago

Tried this today with 5.2. It caught a lot of problems and gave me an impressive report of its findings.

It also burned through my entire 5-hour limit in about 10 minutes. Granted, it had almost finished the whole review in those 10 minutes, so points for speed I suppose.

Silagi 2 hours ago

You really can't let it go on its own; it'll spin up fable subagents and burn through usage laughably quick. You have to specifically tell it to follow guidelines on when to use which type of subagent and let it act as orchestrator and reviewer.

It's weird they've left that as a "gotcha", and I can't think of many charitable reasons for doing so.

hlincontacts 12 hours ago

We've gotten to the point where you have to be doing some seriously ambitious stuff to see a difference between fable and opus. Both execute beautifully, but I think for my workflows I'll still be using opus 5.5

brcmthrowaway 11 hours ago

And what are you using them for?