It would be a tight fit, but I still think within feasibility. We've gotten so good at shrinking video that it kind of feels like wizardry to me. Granted, I'm not sure there existed a computer in the 90s that was powerful enough to encode or decode it.
Could a modern chess engine on a Pentium have defeated Kasparov in 1996? (nicholas.carlini.com)
tombert 3 hours ago
ashleyn 2 hours ago
You can technically have some then-contemporary FMV titles run on N64 with a 64MB cart. The hardware lends itself to it because it has the RSP, a secondary MIPS processor with re-programmable microcode. But the best video compression we had at the time was MPEG-2, which just wouldn't cut it.
tombert 2 hours ago
forgotusername6 2 hours ago
illiac786 2 hours ago
tombert an hour ago
CyberDildonics 2 hours ago
abetusk 2 hours ago
I think this is a common trend for algorithms that are in wide use, where you have Moore's law like behavior on the hardware side and then also software optimizations that give their own order of magnitude speedups.
jasonjayr an hour ago
https://trixter.oldskool.org/2014/06/19/8088-domination-post...
As it turns out, the video was encoded in such a way that it could be played back using the display bandwidth of the original PC, BUT doing that encoding required a modern computer to perform in a reasonable amount of time.
Aloha an hour ago
jasonwatkinspdx 43 minutes ago
But anecdotally I'll share that one of my brother's college roomies was a consultant for RealVideo and was behind their initial codecs. He came back to them with algorithmic improvements a bit later and they just cold shouldered him saying the existing codec was good enough.
So who knows if the biz side folks at the time would have even seen value in better codecs, as unbelievable as that seems to us now in the streaming and zoom call world.
Levitating 38 minutes ago
kqr 4 minutes ago
FartyMcFarter 5 hours ago
> the average chess grandmaster during a classical game will analyze roughly the same number of moves as an amateur player, but they analyze only the most critical moves and do a better job with that analysis.
I don't buy this. I've seen GMs playing online while verbalizing their thought process (on twitch / youtube videos where they livestream their play), and they consider way more branches than I do, while also going deeper than I ever would on some branches. My top rating in lichess blitz is about 1900, not bad but way lower than a GM.
moron4hire 5 hours ago
tarsierscripter 5 hours ago
ketzu 5 hours ago
Filligree 5 hours ago
ketzu 4 hours ago
So if you measure amateurs via club players (=what people might have considered chess amateurs before), that might give you a different result from the average online player (=what people might consider average amateurs today).
It is much easier to imagine the 1600 FIDE OTB player doing 20-40 positional evaluations than the 1200 random chess.com scrub (eg me) doing the same.
mr_mitm 3 hours ago
godd2 3 hours ago
rileymat2 3 hours ago
aurareturn 5 hours ago
jstanley 5 hours ago
regularfry 4 hours ago
1718627440 3 hours ago
AimHere 2 hours ago
This is a known thing among chess players, and even low-skilled players do it to some extent. A newbie to chess can (and almost every teacher will say 'should') work their pattern recognition by just solving tactical chess puzzles and very quickly improve at spotting things like one or two move checkmate patterns or forks or pins or whatever.
It's more of a memory thing than subconscious calculation.
sublinear 2 hours ago
Would you make the move based on vibes alone in a non-blitz game? The calculation is still required and it is faster for those already familiar.
bmacho an hour ago
Sometimes it really looks like "calculations in the back of your head". Have you ever been struck with an 5 moves long tactics in positions you've never seen? Because I have.
There are hardly any other explanations than subconscious calculation.
sandworm101 5 hours ago
jackmott42 5 hours ago
ketzu 40 minutes ago
[1] (2011) has a summary in the introduction:
de Groot presented chess players of varying skill, including some of the best players of the time, with an unfamiliar position and asked them to think aloud as they analyzed the position and chose what move they would make. de Groot found that, contrary to popular belief, the strongest players did not think further ahead than weaker players. World-class Grandmasters (GMs) searched at a similar depth and considered a similar number of options as mere chess experts.
As [1] is also a somewhat reproduction of the original study, you can take it directly. Six Grandmasters, five International Masters, six Experts, and five Class A players completed the think-aloud procedure for two chess positions. Findings indicate that Grandmasters and International Masters search more quickly than Experts and Class A players, and that both groups today search substantially faster than players in previous studies. The findings, however, support de Groot’s overall conclusions and are consistent with predictions made by pattern recognition models.
Section 3 Table 2 is probably most interesting, they had 2 board positions and 2 groups sectioned:Masters (2350+) | Intermediates (1800-2200)
(Mean values only, i tried inlcuding stddev but it was hard to read)
Positions Evaluated (A): 145.3 | 138.6
Positions Evaluated (B): 216.6 | 190.6
---
Max Depth (A): 11.7 | 9.4
Max Depth (B): 14.1 | 12.0
---
Mean Depth (A): 4.1 | 3.3
Mean Depth (B): 4.9 | 4.2
What i found interesting was that the "intermediate" group had a higher number of "base moves" they evaluated (eg Pos A: 5.6 | 8.6).
The previous studies (de Groot and another rperoduction from 1998) had "Nodes visited" for position A at 51.6 | 34.3 and 48.3 | 40.1 so similarly close together as the new ones, but much lower. (depending on your definition on "similarly close together")
[1] https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1551-6709.2011...
Galanwe 5 hours ago
FartyMcFarter 5 hours ago
moi2388 4 hours ago
I actually don’t know this for sure, I should say that they don’t verbalise more moves than I think about. It’s plausible and perhaps even likely that they have a lot of moves or positions they do touch on but immediately discard so don’t even verbalise.
imeanwhatdoikno 4 hours ago
The only time when GM will definitely analyze more lines than an amateur is in a highly tactical position but that happens, again, maybe 1-3 times per typical game (tactics themselves will last several moves, but they would be largely calculated through at the beginning of the tactical melee).
jdkenney 2 hours ago
The main thing commentators here are missing is that GMs have more confidence and do not repeat their analysis, but amateurs (strong club players included) typically re-analyze the same lines over and over. That alone would account for far stronger play with fewer moves considered, if you count the same move multiple times, which you should!
Also, Jonathan Rowson (Scottish GM - peak about 2600) describes his training matches with Mickey Adams (peak #3 or so in world - 2760), and says pretty much the same thing. Most of the time he asked “what about this line I rejected”, the answer was usually “I hadn’t considered that”.
FartyMcFarter 2 hours ago
Those critical moments are a big part of the difference between a GM and a good club player though. If a GM was somehow handicapped to not calculate such tactics, I think lesser players would be able to draw games against GMs much more often.
I agree that GMs can avoid calculation in many positions (e.g. openings as you said), but the value of broader and deeper calculation is still huge in chess.
a3w 4 hours ago
Keyframe 4 hours ago
FartyMcFarter 4 hours ago
It's not one and the same, but strategy patterns are definitely a thing too.
There are:
- tactical patterns (e.g. "back rank checkmate", or "pair of pieces that can be forked by a pawn");
- strategy patterns (e.g. "knights are good in closed positions", or "in a same-colour bishop endgame, put your pawns on the colour opposite to the bishops").
There's also calculation ability which also partly relies on patterns one has seen before.
david927 35 minutes ago
hisfraudulency 4 hours ago
nonethewiser 3 hours ago
hisfraudulency 3 hours ago
nonethewiser an hour ago
Im not sure where the misunderstanding is.
The article says better players calculate a similar amount of moves and your anecdote shows the better player calculating a lot less.
So yeah it rebuts but the idea that GMs analyze more moves but it doesnt agree with the article, right? I guess just in the sense that its not more.
hisfraudulency an hour ago
Haven880 3 hours ago
nonethewiser 3 hours ago
What does this mean exactly? They analyze the same number but the grandmaster analyzes "only the most critical moves."
So does that mean at every given analysis opportunity (each move I guess), they analyze better candidates?
If so I guess these 2 things are totally redundant? "they analyze only the most critical moves and do a better job with that analysis."
Alternatively I wondered if perhaps they actually perform analysis on less moves (perhaps because they already know the lines or remember their previous analysis). But I think that contradicts the claim that they analyze about the same number of moves.
wollowollo 3 hours ago
Haven880 3 hours ago
nonethewiser 2 hours ago
This is intuitive and I guess I'm not surprised this is what was meant. They analyze the same amount of moves they are simply better at it (picking candidates, calculating, etc.)
I guess maybe im being a bit nitpicky but I feel like this is still a misleading way to say that.
> the average chess grandmaster during a classical game will analyze roughly the same number of moves as an amateur player, but they analyze only the most critical moves and do a better job with that analysis.
You could just omit "only the most critical moves" instead of listing it as an additional thing.
> the average chess grandmaster during a classical game will analyze roughly the same number of moves as an amateur player, but they do a better job with that analysis.
"only the most critical moves" sounds like less, especially when listed in addition to analyzing better.
I digress.
kennyloginz 3 hours ago
mkarrmann an hour ago
It's totally true that most people overestimate how much of GM's abilities comes from pure calculation, and underrate intuition. That's what it's getting at.
But in classical games GMs are, in fact, doing tons of calculation, and the statement is literally completely false.
Sharlin 5 hours ago
Maybe this was satirizing people running after every shiny new thing, but the MMX certainly wasn’t. The Pro was the first P6, a totally new, out-of-order microarchitecture that the Pentium 2 would be based on. The MMX was a standard P5 Pentium with a larger L1 and the MMX vector instruction set which, while the first of its kind in an x86, was ultimately not used much in applications, partly because it was integer-only (also because it awkwardly co-opted the existing FPU registers rather than having its own register file). In any case, the Pros were expensive and meant for business use, while the MMXs were consumer processors.
actionfromafar 4 hours ago
whaleofatw2022 4 hours ago
Sharlin 3 hours ago
jasonwatkinspdx 28 minutes ago
adrian_b 15 minutes ago
The launch of Pentium Pro in 1995 was the moment when Intel segmented their CPU line into CPUs for consumers & server/workstation CPUs.
adrian_b 23 minutes ago
Because this move was a money maker for all involved, all memory producers and also AMD followed immediately the Intel initiative. Memory modules without ECC would have never existed if adequate consumer protection laws had existed.
rockmeamedee 3 hours ago
So a computer from back then _can_ run at Elo +3k, but the programmers at the time wouldn't have been able to implement it even if you went back with a time machine and the blueprint for the technique. They wouldn't have the teacher model to distill from.
bitshiftfaced 3 hours ago
cwillu 3 hours ago
I see no reason to doubt the author here.
snek_case 2 hours ago
tomtomtom777 an hour ago
dmurray 5 hours ago
I spent some time trying to figure out how some of the humans seemed to have trapped the machine out of the opening, because it looked like the human was winning.
mb_thd 4 hours ago
I wish disclaimers like that would be at the start and not halfway trough the text.
sd9 4 hours ago
adw 2 hours ago
glimshe 6 hours ago
I thought about something the other day... Modern chess sites run proprietary algorithms to detect cheating by modern engines. But would it be possible for an old engine, let's say from the 70s or 80s, running on modern hardware to deceive these algorithms?
They wouldn't win every tournament but still have a respectable performance.
emil-lp 5 hours ago
jacquesm 5 hours ago
qsort 5 hours ago
Also notice that for events like Title Tuesday you must play on a dedicated client with at least 2 cameras, so it would be significantly harder to pull it off.
rfgplk 5 hours ago
gim89 5 hours ago
Yes, along side you robosexuals
kzrdude 5 hours ago
zulban 4 hours ago
Maybe a pure neural net (no tree search at all) would stand a better chance. Shockingly, those can play at IM level.
weinzierl 4 hours ago
I just ran Andrej Karpathy's Tiny Stories model on a tiny ESP32. In principle we could probably have done this in the 80's and it would have been so amazing.
peterfirefly 3 hours ago
bentt 5 hours ago
I had a Pentium Pro 200 back in the day, to run 3DSMax 1.0 on Windows NT 3.5.
cousin_it 5 hours ago
echelon 5 hours ago
0-_-0 4 hours ago
RetroTechie 4 hours ago
That's discounting architectural innovations & improvements which are bound to happen somehow.
adrianN 2 hours ago
emil-lp 6 hours ago
gattilorenz 5 hours ago
emil-lp 5 hours ago
mkl 5 hours ago
emil-lp an hour ago
skew-aberration 5 hours ago
myrmidon 5 hours ago
Biology had a lot of time, attempts and pressure to make this work but even the most optimized lines (something like a magpie) need more complexity (almost a billion neurons) to get a fraction of superhuman intelligence.
Results with small artificial neural nets are very limited so far, too.
skew-aberration 4 hours ago
remus 5 hours ago
I think this is underselling it a bit. If you'd told this to the IBM engineers at the time I think they would have taken great interest in how the performance was achieved.
vhcr 5 hours ago
It's not so easy, a lot of that better programming can be attributed to better hardware, it wouldn't have been possible to implement NNUE or Fishtest without modern hardware.
pjankiewicz 33 minutes ago
Sopel 5 hours ago
Back in 2021 I got cfish and weiss working on a 386sx, though didn't test it much. cfish was doing 5k nps so some results can be extrapolated. NNUE complicated things due to RAM requirements. Though I did train a small one for lichess at some point and they can be surprisingly good.
edit. A good view on the continuous progress of Stockfish itself https://nextchessmove.com/dev-builds
PowerElectronix 4 hours ago
hn_submit 3 hours ago
pjankiewicz 25 minutes ago
ELO is like probability. A 100 ELO difference is something like 2x odds of winning a game and over a lot of tries it tends to be quite accurate. That was also an argument from Magnus Carlsen that to compare human ELO you need a lot of games and he didn't want to take part in classical world championship quoting this reason (among others).
fergonco 4 hours ago
gobdovan 4 hours ago
BobbyTables2 4 hours ago
Of course, “human vs supercomputer” is more exciting to the public than “human vs toaster controller”, especially when the latter in small quantities costs less than a cup of coffee.
zellyn 5 hours ago
mcksp 4 hours ago
On a kinda similar note i always wander that about indie video games. We have this massive hits like balatro, vampire survivors, that easily could be made in the era of SNES or N64. But somehow we have to wait 30 years to get them.
It clearly wasn't technical side of things that prevented that, but also I don't believe it was lack of creativity.
Some could argue that it is just what art is, we will get every year some new thing, creating all "possible and meaningful" art right now isn't even valid thing to consider, because art isn't about exhausting a finite set of possibilities.
But at the other hand some mechanics, design solutions in the hindsight seem kinda obvious and make me wonder, what things we do not see now, but will look obvious to people 30 years from now.
retsibsi 4 hours ago
> It clearly wasn't technical side of things that prevented that, but also I don't believe it was lack of creativity.
I don't know those specific games, but I think this often happens because, although the thing has been technically possible for decades, it used to be relatively difficult/expensive/obscure, and now it's far more accessible.
In those days, writing and publishing a SNES game was something that relatively very few people would have even thought to attempt, let alone had the knowledge and skills and capital to pull off successfully. Nowadays, creating and publishing a SNES-level game is comparatively very easy (at the technical level, that is; making a good original game is of course still hard), and so a large portion of the people with an idea and some motivation can actually go ahead and do it. And now that games are fully mainstream, there will be more of those people in the first place. Many of the resulting games won't be very interesting, but collectively we're exploring the design space much more quickly.
edit: I was probably silly to focus on literal SNES games instead of 'SNES era' games, but the point still stands: creating games for any platform back then was harder and more obscure than it is now (especially given that we're talking about a technical level that required quite efficient use of the hardware back then, but can be done with extremely inefficient use of the hardware now).
swiftcoder 3 hours ago
I don't know I fully agree with this. Consoles always had the "walled garden" thing going for them, but on the other side of things, developing games became so cheap and easy during the personal computer revolution that whole industry collapsed in '83 under a massive flood of shovelware...
retsibsi an hour ago
jameshart 4 hours ago
jerjerjer 33 minutes ago
Marazan 3 hours ago
Also, don't underestimate the "juice" that these days is relatively easy to do but would be expenseive back then. Balatro has dozens of very small things going on graphically that make it feel real nice to play that most certainly not be free on SNES hardware.
And like vampire survivors is just Robotron/Smash TV with infinity number of sprites on screen. The limitation is very much hardware in that case.
peterfirefly 3 hours ago
Asooka 3 hours ago
pessimizer 3 hours ago
Every board game could have been built thousands of years ago, at least after the dawn of some reasonable writing/drawing media. But technology in design hadn't accumulated enough. To go farther, every bit of math could have been done thousands of years ago, but new math had to draw on earlier math. New math didn't rely (much) on special paper.
Also, "hit" probably isn't a good metric. Those games might have showed up back then and just been moderately notable, like dozens or hundreds of other games were.
rkangel 3 hours ago
Game design (like other creative expressions) is the same. Each new game doesn't come from a vacuum, it's a progression from everything that has come before.
criddell 5 hours ago
kragen 5 hours ago
And, with more work, that's true of computers in general; they can all do the same computations once you somehow wire up enough memory: https://dmitry.gr/?r=05.Projects&proj=35.%20Linux4004
criddell 5 hours ago
For chess though, there are time constraints. The 386 is a lot slower. Is it fast enough?
kragen 4 hours ago
An 80386 is about 10–13 Dhrystone MIPS, while a 200MHz Pentium Pro is about 90–450, according to https://netlib.org/performance/html/dhrystone.data.col0.html. So we're talking about a further slowdown on the order of 20×. I don't know how to estimate how much that would lower its Elo.
The article says:
> By making a number of adjustments to the algorithm and tuning it to the Pentium, we can increase its Elo to 2846 ± 35 at 1 second per move, 3109 ± 79 at 10 seconds per move, and 3180 ± 80 at 30 seconds per move.
So making it 30× faster would raise its 1-second Elo by about 334 points, and ln(30) is 3.4, so that's about 100 points per factor of e. ln(10) is 2.3, so we'd interpolate a prediction of 230 points gained at 10× faster, reasonably close to the 263 points reported.
If we extrapolate that in the other direction, ln(20) is 3.0, so on the 80386 we'd expect a loss of about 300 Elo points, down from 2846 to 2550 or so. Still enough to wipe the floor with Crafty, but low enough that Kasparov would usually beat it.
But we don't really know if that extrapolation is valid.
criddell 4 hours ago
kragen 3 hours ago
w-m 5 hours ago
Throw a 3dfx Voodoo in there and do some real-time 3D Gaussian Splatting!
RetroTechie 3 hours ago
A lot of support for old CPUs & platforms they're on goes through emulators like QEMU. Or plain old 'go with specs, disturb code as little as possible, and assume (hope) it still works'. But nothing beats running on actual hardware. Uncommon configurations, specific drivers that may have been broken (sometimes for a looong time before someone notices), spec says A but hardware does B, etc.
ur-whale 2 hours ago
bjourne 5 hours ago
spuz 3 hours ago
chihuahua an hour ago
bjourne an hour ago
RicoElectrico 3 hours ago
bell-cot 5 hours ago
Unfortunately, most humans see big|new|expensive hardware as great status signifiers, barriers to lesser folks joining the Cool Club, and optimal sources of sales commissions.