Timestral: Mistral's time-series foundation models (mistral.ai)

> Known-future covariates. Some drivers of sensor behaviour are known in advance, such as production schedules, planned shutdowns, weather forecasts. Timestral can condition on them to improve forecast quality, so a scheduled load increase is expected rather than flagged as a surprise.

To me this should be the entire basis of the system, not a condition to improve forecast quality? Like if you're modelling electricity consumption, if all you have is a window of N previous samples, you're going to get completely beaten by a comparatively simple system that knows the time of day, that there's holidays coming up, the weather forecast, etc.

I would also think that these time-series forecasting models would gain from a sophisticated understanding at least the labels of the covariates? A 5M model has no idea what a "bank holiday" is, it just sees an arbitrary class go from 0 to 1, and won't have any useful inductive biases as to what it means or how to link them to other pieces of information.

E.g., wouldn't you predict €/MWh of electricity far more accurately with access to price of natural gas (itself influenced by many geopolitical factors), breakdown in composition of production of each energy source, predictions about roll-out (requiring a sophisticated LLM capable of understanding news and their implications), etc. What's the use in trying to predict it from 2 variables and a narrow window looking back at just 8192 or 32768 samples?

Or perhaps I misunderstand the use-case and this is more for extremely short term movements?

Sure, you could train a XGboost model on a time series with holiday or event covariates, but what if you have 10k different series to forecast for? You could train 10k different models, one for each series, but then they have very little history to learn from. Alternatively, you could train a single generic model to cover all 10k, but then you have to deal with scale mismatch between series in addition to the feature dev overhead between series. A TSFM saves a ton of work in modeling each of these series and could potentially generalize better to produce more accurate forecasts.

Speed looks nice too. I want an open weight model with this performance now.

Typically, in linear, non-linear, and NN models, we fit some noisy data to A) An underlying model with unknown parameters or B) A model free search which attempts to construct combination of "basis" functions or C) A purely black box model which we only care about Input/Output error.

A) is useful because often we know an underlying model we want to match, but don't know the parameter values. If we can determine the parameters, we get insights about the real system. E.g, how are these two variables coupled and how strongly -> We can make business decisions about what happens if we adjust some parameters.

So what exactly does this timeseries foundation model do and provide?

Maybe, the observability is that you have a forecast, and you adjust the covariates and see what happens. But one would want much more insights than a "executive summary" of the forecast.

The important parts for me as a signals processing R&D engineer.

> Classical models such as ARIMA and linear regression remain well-established tools for forecasting time series. These models are usually fitted to a single series and learn only from that series' history.

> Deep learning models such as PatchTST add the capacity to learn nonlinear patterns across many related series, but they are still typically trained from scratch on each dataset, so what they learn doesn't carry over to new domains.

> Time series foundation models bring the pre-training approach to time series. Trained on a large and diverse corpus, our model learns patterns that transfer across series, forecasting zero-shot on data it has never seen, even in domains where data is scarce.

Edit: Looks like it's a pure black box which you can run on premise.

> Output: Probabilistic forecasts, 21 quantiles

> Inputs: Multivariate targets, past-only and known-future covariates

https://github.com/Nixtla/nixtla

Which is why at the end of the day why nobody trusts or blames the forecasting models, specially in all or nothing types of decisions.

Spacetimeformer was imo a huge leap forward that got overshadowed by all the language model progress

Excited to see more effort put into time series forecasting

With such strong human capital, both in quantity and quality, Europe should in theory be competitive with US and China in AI.