I'm wondering why no one is mentioning the "accountability" word. Why these companies are allowed to damage others with impunity?
Start making managers pay the price for their actions, and watch how the models magically slow down on their own.
vb-8448 11 hours ago
I'm wondering why no one is mentioning the "accountability" word. Why these companies are allowed to damage others with impunity?
Start making managers pay the price for their actions, and watch how the models magically slow down on their own.
sroerick 10 hours ago
Byvrsakjo10 10 hours ago
stefan_ 10 hours ago
apetresc 9 hours ago
It’s not lobotomized, it’s a simple harness restriction that has nothing to do with the model or its capabilities. And either way, I’m not sure what that has to do with “negligence” or “intent”? You think frontier labs should be prosecuted because they don’t allow agents to turn off your PC?
vb-8448 10 hours ago
To make a lot of damage it's enough to create a ransomware with a time bomb that self propagates and start breaching systems left and right. At that point, if you don't catch it in time, the damage will be huge (and given the shitty procedures and practices these labs have in place it's not so improbable).
ball_of_lint 10 hours ago
Agents could make a virus that does not require continued inference to do it's thing.
Agents could take over the internet in a way that isn't immediately detected by those companies, so that by the time they do shut off API access the damage is done.
OpenAI or Anthropic could choose to not shut off API access, because the hack is bringing them in money or furthering their political aims.
Agents could also hack Anthropic/OpenAI and make it appear that API access has been turned off, when in reality it hasn't.
icedchai 10 hours ago
Anthropic and OpenAI are both behind Cloudflare. It's fairly easy for an upstream to shut you off. Beyond that, the government / law enforcement could seize and disable their DNS within an hour.
tosapple 8 hours ago
icedchai 8 hours ago
Also, AI providers are literally getting a stream of traffic with every prompt and every response. How can they not know what's being worked on? They are more likely to use that an excuse to ban open models where they can't know what's being worked on.
tosapple 8 hours ago
rendang 2 hours ago
khafra an hour ago
MrDrMcCoy 9 hours ago
This seems highly unlikely to be a problem. Most of the interesting/dangerous models are too big to fit in a single GPU instance. Once you have to spread across "normal" networking, performance will be crippled. Then there's the problem of billing...
> Agents could make a virus that does not require continued inference to do it's thing.
Sure, then it hits a poorly-designed part of its code and effectively dies. Without an experienced human in the loop, I have my doubts as to its practical severity.
> Agents could take over the internet in a way that isn't immediately detected by those companies, so that by the time they do shut off API access the damage is done.
Billing is a likely limiting factor here.
> OpenAI or Anthropic could choose to not shut off API access, because the hack is bringing them in money or furthering their political aims.
This is where citizens with access to backhoes come in.
> Agents could also hack Anthropic/OpenAI and make it appear that API access has been turned off, when in reality it hasn't.
Billing and other usage metrics would be an obvious tell.
fragmede 9 hours ago
As humans understand them, anyway. As long as we're hallucinating up magic computer viruses, RSI dictates that the AI agents are keenly aware of GPU RAM sizing, and will design a useful model to fit into what's readily available, with headroom for context and tool calling, far better than I could do as a human. But magic doesn't exist and AI still needs to follow the laws of physics, so maybe a model that can pass ExploitBench but do absolutely nothing else can be quantized down to fit on a 4080 GPU and still get a decent score on similar tasks, but there's a bitter lesson about that to be had.
ball_of_lint 9 hours ago
I'm not sure I get what you mean by billing. These companies are running their own data centers (or are currently building them out). This could look as subtle as one machine giving slightly worse or slower answers.
layla5alive 32 minutes ago
This... just... doesn't matter. There are ways to scale horizontally at the expense of latency.. token/sec may drop dramatically, but then you just make millions of slow instances and in aggregate, you're back in action as a very powerful coordinated swarm...
w4der 24 minutes ago
You know cables, modems, RF equipment and optical transducers can all be unplugged right?
embedding-shape 10 hours ago
Considering what a marketing thing they've made "we inadvertently hacked someone because we're incapable of testing things in a secure way", I'm not so sure they'd want to pull the plug, even if this happened. Probably a bunch would try to convince the public to "give it a try", and it'd consume tokens by the billions.
dismalaf 10 hours ago
Because investors have pumped hundreds of billions into AI and real consequences put that money (and growth) at risk.
voidhorse 10 hours ago
Another part is a completely defanged administration she it comes to effectively regulating anything.
Another bit is money.
iugtmkbdfil834 10 hours ago
steveBK123 10 hours ago
I also find this whole "its so good, its scary" flex a little less impressive when you consider they access to millions of GPUs?
The AI buildout has been one of, if not the largest, focussed capital investment in history. The 2 big AI labs are the final customer for something like 20-33% of all datacenter compute in the pipeline.. up to 70% when you look at hyperscaler "AI revenue" from the big 3.
I don't think any single entity has had remotely this much compute available in history.
vb-8448 10 hours ago
Obviously this will have huge impact on some companies valuations, but you can have one's cake and eat it too.
27183 4 hours ago
That aside, I'm not sure why it's particularly interesting they have all this "compute" (let's just assume for the sake of argument it's all "live"--that is they can actually run workloads on all of the "compute" they have on paper). So what if it's the biggest amount ever? Why would that be meaningful? Is there some economically viable problem you're aware of that is somehow dominant in that way?
tripledry an hour ago
However, if I put my sci-fi hat on for a second, it's not so far fetched that we figure out a way to compress models to a size where it wouldn't need all that compute.
CoolestBeans 10 hours ago
ChrisMarshallNY 10 hours ago
skybrian 10 hours ago
OtomotO 10 hours ago
I, for one, am not trying to find scapegoats or go on a witchhunt.
But managers are paid a lot of money to take responsibility. Yes, that's an old school thought, responsibility. But that's one big reason they get a big, fat paycheck.
chao- 9 hours ago
A "scapegoat" is someone who is incorrectly blamed for someone else's errors or sins. The perspective you're responding to is this: They built the system, they run the system, they have continuously warned "This system is dangerous!", and yet persisted. That is not being incorrectly blamed, not being a scapegoat, and instead is a collaborator.
So I think you mean to ask: "Why do people focus so much on finding someone to blame?" It's not merely semantic, because the answer to that is more straightforward: Consistent accountability is a major factor in deterring bad behavior. It is not the only factor, but it is a major one.
That is my Steel Man understanding of the people searching for individual blame.
skybrian 8 hours ago
pona-a 4 hours ago
Imagine we made nuclear weapons a private industry, had CEOs bragging how they have enough warheads to blow the Earth to smithereens, and then they "accidentally" nuked three cities over a short period of time each, saying they lost control, or rather couldn't contain their semi-autonomous weapon. All somehow managing to turn the PR around from their abject incompetence and towards SciFi visions of mankind hunted by self-replicating bombs.
ozozozd 3 hours ago
Countries demand reparation for damages in war. Citizens of those countries sue for damages and win.
Accountability is not a foreign concept. And the point is to disincentivize negligence. Because negligence is cheaper. And in this case, accidental hacks are marketing spend.
fragmede 9 hours ago
augment_me 9 hours ago
Whatever you try to make laws for now will be irrelevant in 1-2 years. You either have to go extremely broad, like the EU does it, and accept that people will find loopholes, or you need to target specific technologies which is a hard job for the same reason.
In any way, ita already a lost cause cause you move slower than the tech. A plausible prediction for AGI is actually a social collapse in the moment when society cannot keep up with everyday life because of the pace of change being so fast that no existing laws can handle it
walt_grata 9 hours ago
Avicebron 9 hours ago
closeparen 7 hours ago
Avicebron 7 hours ago
closeparen 6 hours ago
Obviously you’re going to keep the model behind an API and be very selective about the people allowed to call and the queries it’s willing to answer, in that case. As Anthropic has done with Fable. But that is voluntary restraint - mostly in today’s regime we get frontier capabilities in open weight models on a ~year delay.
ozozozd 3 hours ago
There is no user-involved damage. No one is recklessly running agents by the thousands without air-gapped containers, except “the people” than run these labs.
augment_me 9 hours ago
What defines a model? What defines ownership of a process? If I make a wrapper to a remote VM that builds and executed a prompt, am I accountable?
When I worked at a company in the EU, it was enough to apply a reversible linear transform to the data for it to be considered GDPR safe-according according to legal definition as long as the transform details were stored separately.
ozozozd 3 hours ago
Hell, you can slip and fall and hold the cleaning company accountable. (This might be a US thing. Likely because that fall might cost a lot in medical expenses, and your insurance will do whatever it takes to pass the liability.)
sdenton4 9 hours ago
dansquizsoft 8 hours ago
jubilanti 8 hours ago
"A series of tubes" was the same kind of political character assassination that led to Howard Dean getting ridiculed for his infamous scream. He butchered the sentence. Fair. But Stevens should be ridiculed for parroting a tech industry lobby stance about net neutrality, not for the series of tubes metaphor.
You are probably too young to remember that the dominant metaphor for the internet in 1990s politics was "the information superhighway." It was easy to think of the web as "driving" browsers to visit web "sites", with slow bandwidth being analogous to being caught in traffic. But the internet is closer to water, gas, and electricity than roads. Concepts like bandwidth and throughput are closer to how they play out in infrastructure policy for various things with tubes, versus cars and roads. Do you think he's wrong and that the internet is closer to "a big truck" versus "a series of tubes"?
The issue being debated was net neutrality and bandwidth, including specifics about who pays for what and the downstream second-order consequences of various policies. He was parroting some line from some telecom lobbyist, but the point the lobbyist was trying to make through Stevens was about how if certain policies about who pays for bandwidth were adopted, it could disincentivize some things at the Tier 1/2 layer that could increase transport costs at the Tier 2/3 layer that impacts ordinary people's bandwidth.
BobbyTables2 8 hours ago
If I build a robot that murders my neighbor, I’m still at fault.
We don’t absolve drivers of responsibility because of cruise control.
In that sense, AI is nothing new. If it is abused to cause harm, the person behind it should be liable.
augment_me 8 hours ago
What if a person physically broke into the car and did the same thing? Clearly they are the one to blame then.
The whole person in the loop is liable is already an outdated concept when decisions are made beyond the persons physical control.
adventured 7 hours ago
If GM does something (or fails to do something) to their vehicle that causes me to crash, they're liable for the crash.
If someone cuts my brake lines (alters my vehicle) and I crash my car and kill someone, the person that cut the lines is responsible. I have to prove the context of course, and or an investigator has to do so.
And the responsible entity may refuse to pay up, may refuse to take responsibility. None of that is new either.
augment_me 7 hours ago
Let's say that OpenAI used a shell company that hosts server where an agent spun up another agent on instructions from another agent which was corrupted by bit errors from the inference framework which caused some major hack to happen. Its impossible to investigate in the same way as physical issues. What if the model is open-source, who is responsible then? What if it's open source but another process altered the weights?
ozozozd 3 hours ago
When you say infinite loops, you mean infinite indirection, but obviously no such thing exists, because computer systems, just like other physical things, exist in physical space, not on the astral plane.
Whoever had agency to start the domino effect carries the liability. Doesn’t matter if the model is open source or if you brewed it home. And if you weaponize OpenAI’s models through their servers, it would likely be shared liability. Yours would be malice, theirs would be negligence.
augment_me 3 hours ago
Which judge will go down the rabbit hole of figuring this out? How will they do it? Will they have people tracing logs over 5000$? And if they do get there, in your fictional world, at some point, after 1 year of investigations and back-and-forth, it's okay, the technology is beyond what it was before, it's not relevant anymore, new technologies and new methods.
dvngnt_ 7 hours ago
augment_me 7 hours ago
po1nt 9 hours ago
ball_of_lint 9 hours ago
Same thing here - If they build it and it does $100 in damages (and we arrest them for it), that's their problem. If they build it and it does $100B in damages, that's everyone's problem. Even if they do get arrested after the fact.
Yes we should have charges and damages for everything on https://www.felonybench.com/, but that doesn't address the core issue of this being possible at all.
trhway 8 hours ago
we have the 2008 crisis to wit. And the involved supposedly failed math models and lines of responsibilities and other involved financial relationships were much simpler and clearer and of the types well known to the law and regulators, yet...
Additionally any urge to regulate AI is attenuated by how much the situation reminds Industrial Revolution - rush into it laying waste to your land (look at the depictions of industrial England back then) and be among the world leaders or stay pastoral and be devoured/colonized/etc. by the industrial powers like happened with many countries in 19th and even into 20th century. One would think there should be a 3rd way. I'm sure there is one, as well as i'm sure that we lack sufficient global societal mentality level needed to achieve it (we couldn't even handle much simpler climate change issue). May be emerging AI itself at some point will get us there (hope we'll like or at least will be compatible with that future :)
Edit: just on NPR - Trump said that AI already has all the necessary guardrails - the smart high IQ President.
watwut 35 minutes ago
trhway 11 minutes ago
edot 7 hours ago
Aeolun 7 hours ago
ElProlactin 7 hours ago
At this point, in the US at least, the laws give the corrupt elite the ability to deter competition and to target the people who try to get in their way.
In other words, it's protection for the potentate and his sycophants, not the plebs.
> If we passed a law that said the CEO of any company that deploys an LLM that commits a crime gets punished as if they personally did the crime (so, basically instant life sentence if it's even a simple crime times a million instances), I guarantee you the first email the CEO sends to the company is a "pause every LLM project we have - we gotta think about this".
Why do no such laws exist in practice? Why are corporate crimes almost always settled by payment, not individual punishment?
If you answer these questions, you'll know why the law you envision has a lower chance of being enacted than AI destroying humanity.
Quibblingeek 6 hours ago
There are laws, but if you’re rich enough, the laws don’t apply.
Boeing was responsible for the deaths of hundreds of people. The people that facilitated this weren’t held responsible and were in fact compensated to the tune of 10’s of millions of dollars for doing their jobs terribly.
vishnugupta 5 hours ago
Laws are the last line of defense. People don’t do bad things primarily because their human nature and moral compass stops them from doing so.
margalabargala an hour ago
People don't do bad things because they have nothing to gain from them. Ask someone to do something evil as part of their job, they'll often do it.
There's lots of ways that you could go out of your way to hurt someone and get away with it. There are not that many ways you could go out of your way to hurt someone, get away with it, and significantly profit.
zahlman 4 hours ago
Because there are many important values of "something" where such punishment acts as a deterrent to other would-be criminals; and because society is more stable when people see justice done and that mollifies hoi polloi after the damage occurs.
But many AI doom scenarios don't fit that paradigm. The first time "something" happens (at least if you buy the argument) would be bad enough for legal punishment not to matter.
Tanjreeve an hour ago
Bud 4 hours ago
It's just like you said: this only works if the threat of punishment is credible.
csomar 4 hours ago
sznio 22 minutes ago
which the government doesnt want since this will stop progress, while other countries will continue to develop LLMs
dana-s 5 minutes ago
dmitrygr 28 minutes ago
leoqa 8 hours ago
nialv7 8 hours ago
3M polluted groundwater in Minnesota for 50 years[1]; Nestlé misled mothers in order to make them stop breastfeeding and switch to their formula which killed babies [2]; Both copmanies are still doing business today.
[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3M_contamination_of_Minnesota_... [2]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1977_Nestl%C3%A9_boycott
alexandre_m 8 hours ago
You’re worried about companies. I’m far more concerned when governments are involved.
dpkirchner 8 hours ago
Muromec 2 hours ago
sph 3 hours ago
stickfigure 6 hours ago
When an AI bot injures you, you can call the owner to account. But not until then. You have no standing to demand "accountability".
sroussey 6 hours ago
vitro 25 minutes ago
zmmmmm 9 hours ago
We had OpenAI "accidentally" run an entire swarm of 10,000 agents apparently for weeks, on a security related task, seemingly totally unsupervised, hacking all over the internet - all the conversations were completely visible, anybody who looked would have seen it. But they didn't.
So before we start regulating innocent parties, maybe let's start by taking some direct action against the specific ones that appear to be behaving with criminal levels of negligence.
monster_truck 8 hours ago
maxgashkov 7 hours ago
While I do think OpenAI were negligent in not developing the harness that would allow to understand better what's happening close to realtime, I'd say "anybody who looked" in that case would probably be someone with another swarm tasked with analysis, it's no longer "glanceable" in a traditional sense.
includenotfound 6 hours ago
zahlman 4 hours ago
I still think this is a sign that they are not taking their own rhetoric seriously.
BLKNSLVR 3 hours ago
It is also a choice to not do any or all of the above.
stephbook an hour ago
Not surprised this is always what they have and hack.
Who would use an Agent that spends $10,000 re-implementing some OAuth lib or reverse-engineering a proprietary lib when it's free on the internet?
tancop 39 minutes ago
amouat 34 minutes ago
verdverm 2 hours ago
They would have been watching what it does, especially when running it on ExploitGym of all benchmarks... that is criminal worthy neglegence
BLKNSLVR 4 hours ago
"They" don't care about the end-people. "They" care about maximising their profit thing, in a vacuum.
plastic041 6 hours ago
Also, regarding the incidents: Neither he nor Sam Altman takes responsibility for those incidents. You can't say, "Wow, someone's agent is gone rogue; let's slow down" when you are literally the person in charge. CEOs and researchers will only slow down when they realize that they will face consequences if their LLMs misbehave.
mitthrowaway2 5 hours ago
BLKNSLVR 4 hours ago
nextaccountic 2 hours ago
plastic041 4 hours ago
He took every benefits of being frontiers and now he's kicking the ladder.
Refreeze5224 3 hours ago
What a ridiculous analogy to make.
neom an hour ago
xhevahir an hour ago
chinathrow 31 minutes ago
He doesn't need to take responsibility - as CEO, he has that implicitly. And we know it.
Metacelsus 10 hours ago
As a biologist, this is the most annoying thing about Anthropic for me. If they really cared about improving health they would set up a trusted-access program so that biologists can use Mythos (et al) safely. Instead they're trying to monopolize biology.
dannykwells 10 hours ago
hobom 9 hours ago
jiggawatts 8 hours ago
It reminds me of the export controls on PlayStation 2 consoles because it was deemed that 6 gigaflops was a "dangerous" amount of computer power, and it couldn't be allowed to fall into the hands of opposing militaries: https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-2000-apr-17-fi-20482...
Now the phone in my pocket does 2,500 gigaflops on battery power, and nobody seems interested in banning its export because of that.
r3trohack3r 3 hours ago
I don’t agree with them, but I don’t think it was the raw compute power as much as it was maintaining the _delta_ in compute power.
verdverm 2 hours ago
llelouch 6 hours ago
bonsai_spool 4 hours ago
tempodox 2 hours ago
That’s the recurring theme with these companies. They are not there to serve anybody else but only themselves. They let you use their infrastructure so they can collect all the knowledge and data, and then they take it from you to reap all the benefits and profits.
ball_of_lint 10 hours ago
Security has long been a lottery - Probably most systems are exploitable, but the cost of developing such an exploit is expensive and the punishments for using such an exploit are large enough that it's not an everyday problem.
AI breaks both axes. Developing exploits is far more efficient using LLMs instead of humans, and LLMs don't (and can't) fear the reprisal and consequences the same way.
I do hope humanity will be able to mitigate these hacks, but we should expect them to continue and to become more severe on our present course.
0x5FC3 2 hours ago
By definition that needs a command and control server, the ability to execute tasks on demand and regular pings to the C2.
> You need one root certificate. You need one windows update. You need one backdoor in xz.
Certs can be revoked. Updates can be rolled back. We have had the backdoor in xz already. You seem to underestimate the modern security stack and OpenAI and Anthropic are _not_ good examples.
The asymmetry in red/blue scenarios will be transient in nature. You won't have cost of developing exploits fall without the cost of securing the systems also falling.
Hikikomori an hour ago
ozozozd an hour ago
Everything I’ve been trying to argue for some time, argued way better, clearer, and more fun.
I am almost bummed that I didn’t get all the technical depth and the references like the “shook one” without having to look it up.
dmoose 11 hours ago
huurtehoog 10 hours ago
declan_roberts 10 hours ago
DLA 10 hours ago
The other insanity in all this the smartest computer scientists in the world are asking Congress to regulate them. Come. On. Really? Do we remember “The internet is not a truck, it’s a series of tubes…”
Why can’t the big labs form a Save The World Consortium and self-regulate?
Non-democratic counties (hey there China) will not abide by any agreement that constrains their advantage. It’s naive to think so.
What this conversation lacks is enough discussion of how these models can cause us harm—we are are so worried about AI but we allow Windows in critical infrastructure; we build JS/TS apps with thousands of dependencies; we generally don’t segment networks well enough; we don’t have adequate (sometimes any) detection capabilities in our systems, and so on.
jack_pp 4 hours ago
The problem is that there can not be any outside party to regulate this on a global scale
verdverm 2 hours ago
The main counterexample to this was nuclear weapons. Atom bombs have not been used to kill since the US did so. However today, the two largest nuclear powers have no legal agreement on arms control because Donald the Trump declined Russia's offer for an extension to the existing agreement. Now other countries are looking at Ukraine, Iran (attacked for wanting nukes) vs NKorea (not attacked because they have them), and Donald's own musings about the US nuclear umbrella being a bad idea (France is going to build more nukes now too)... and we now face nuclear proliferation again on a global scale, with tech that is nearly 100 years old now.
ebcode 12 hours ago
To my mind, the last great arms race between nation states was a misdirected love triangle between USA, Russia, and The Bomb, and look at all the damage that did.
Since AI is the new arms race between USA and China, slowing down may just give the humans involved enough time to realize they should be loving one another, instead of the machines.
Maybe saying, "let's slow down", is another way of saying, "I love you."
Or, maybe it's just: "let's not all of humanity kill ourselves like some bad ending to a Shakespearean tragedy."
Either way, it's a better note than, "We must achieve sea/air/nuclear/quantum/AI/spiritual supremacy before those other bastards do!"
mococa 11 hours ago
TutleCpt 11 hours ago
dragonwriter 11 hours ago
(1) Give the big AI incumbents an anti-trust exemption so the they can coordinate without it being an illegal agreement not to compete, and
(2) Adopt mandatory supervision (by giving priveleged access to monitors) to the shared safety protocols of the big labs, by a nonprofit funded by the big labs, of everyone training, distributing, or hosting models.
(3) Adopt a policy of seeking international agreements to extend substantially the same rules to foreign actors training, distributing, and hosting models.
The part they are doing voluntarily isn't to promote the lobbying effort for these mandates isn't slowing down, it is giving their pet nonprofit the access for “independwht supervision” of their own operations to their own existing safety rules.
jcranmer 11 hours ago
These theories aren't entirely incompatible with each other, so both could be true at the same time.
dragonwriter 10 hours ago
This theory is just what the AI firms have concretely asked for from government and described themselves as doing voluntarily in the same documents to which people have attributed a commitment to a slowdown based on the titles and non-concrete framing verbiage.
> The other theory is that they're starting to worry about running out of cash, so they want to do a Washington Naval Treaty-style pause to lower the amount of money they have to shovel at model development to stay competitive.
That’s not really a different theory as to what they are trying to do, it’s just an explanation that goes one step further as to why they want the government to step in to protect them from outside competition while also allowing them to gorm an agreement not to compete to reduce internal competition in the existing oligopoly.
The main alternative explanation at the same level is that they are seeing growing threats from good enough foreign/minor-lab/open models, and want to lock in marketshare by excluding competitors, and maybe that’s what you read as implied in my post such that the “running out of money” would be an alternative, and if so you are correct that while they are alternatives, they are not at all mutually exclusive: both can be true (and the emergent competition could partially explain investment drying up, and vice versa via reduced funding making it harder to stay ahead.)
dansquizsoft 8 hours ago
mococa 7 hours ago
felixgallo 11 hours ago
nxm 9 hours ago
felixgallo 8 hours ago
BobbyJo 8 hours ago
anjel 10 hours ago
Closing the Barndoor after the livestock have escaped
myko 9 hours ago
gaigalas 10 hours ago
So, it's about competition inside the US market, with strong indications of an impeding losing scenario on raw economics (it has nothing to do with AGI, just price).
Byvrsakjo10 10 hours ago
YetAnotherNick 4 hours ago
So my proposal is AI companies decide which labs have come close to frontier and decide to slow it. Government decide to stop progress in that and they divide the revenue from all labs(for say 10 years), without any matter of where it is coming from. Any lab which reaches close to frontier gets a chunk in the pie. This will encourage labs to come close to the frontier but not dangerously close.
fooker 11 hours ago
Prevented a world war for 80+ years.
kypro 10 hours ago
luma 10 hours ago
It worked.
kragen 10 hours ago
edbaskerville 4 hours ago
If Stanislav Petrov hadn't been in the chain of command, MAD might not have worked. And it could still fail to work in the future.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Soviet_nuclear_false_alar... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanislav_Petrov
raincole 10 hours ago
fn-mote 9 hours ago
Fact: There was no world war.
Impossible to prove hypothesis: nuclear weapons prevented a world war.
Facing the facts about nuclear weapons means owning the good (probably prevented wars) and the bad (at the very least there were severe environmental and economic consequences).
fooker 9 hours ago
There are direct quotes from Nixon and Reagan that claims this to be true. That is enough evidence for me.
platinumrad 9 hours ago
fooker 8 hours ago
In terms of cold war presidents itching to start wars, no.
otabdeveloper4 3 hours ago
Akshually there is, and WW3 has been going on since 2010. (Mostly in places that aren't Europe.)
verdverm 2 hours ago
War has still been going on since 1945, much earlier if not always, so akshually WW2 never ended or is just how it's always been? (mostly in places that are not "first world" / The West)
verdverm 2 hours ago
stuxnet79 11 hours ago
watwut 11 hours ago
23fdsf 10 hours ago
abletonlive 11 hours ago
Can you be specific about the damage? We currently live in the most prosperous times on earth for humans. I'm not sure what you mean by damage.
Nobody can explain why an LLM can be so capable as to be able to wipe out humanity and pose a greater threat than nuclear bombs but not be so capable as to be able to protect humanity against that threat. Are we just handwaving this with "entropy"?
> Maybe saying, "let's slow down", is another way of saying, "I love you." Or, maybe it's just: "let's not all of humanity kill ourselves like some bad ending to a Shakespearean tragedy."
Okay nevermind, I think it's pretty clear you just want to wax poetic about all of this.
ebcode 11 hours ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starfish_Prime
https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/3f62c90925f64fc09425be8...
Of course there is/was plenty of human damage as well.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/4-000-000-early-deaths-...
pizza234 10 hours ago
It is absolutely explained (for those who actually care about reading). Simply put, AIs are working more and more like blackboxes - there's no guarantee that an AI of the future will be aligned, or if it will be faking alignment. This is not speculation - alignment faking has been observed in experiments. This is exactly why Astra's developments have been worrying (in principle).
And bear in mind that recursive AI development started already to be a thing. Which means: inner misalignment may trickle down the generations, and humans won't detect it.
Having said that, of course, it can be predicted if and how misalignment will take place. But it's absolutely a plausible scenario.
Regarding the physical possibility: AI is in its infancy; think of it as Arpanet. Developers 60 years ago couldn't imagine it would be ubiquitous. AI will be ubiquitous the same way.
abletonlive 9 hours ago
I know you think you explained it but you didn't. You explained how an LLM might become misaligned and hide it but for the LLMs that are not, why would they not be capable of detecting that something harmful is happening and defending against the misaligned LLMs actions? After all, it was LLMs that defended hugging face.
dansquizsoft 8 hours ago
abletonlive 5 hours ago
Elaborate on why LLMs are so capable that they are a threat to humanity and at the same time, they are so incapable of defending us?
I'll give you a clue, nobody, including Dario, can answer this question because one contradicts the other.
hgoel 10 hours ago
Having nukes at all (either domestic or under another country's umbrella) seems to be the most effective way for a country to have its sovereignty respected.
Rover222 11 hours ago
There have been precisely 0 nuclear weapons detonated (outside of testing) since that arms race began.
actionfromafar 11 hours ago
nobody9999 8 hours ago
You really buy that ridiculous argument that "the AI broke out of its sandbox! We had no idea! It's dangerous I tell you, dangerous! Unless you make us the sole gatekeepers of this incredibly dangerous 'intelligence', everybody gonna die!"
Please.
Bring the CFAA[0] hammer down on these guys and watch how fast those "uncontrollable" LLMs get controlled. "Oh, gee! Prison? We can't control this stuff...but it'll never happen again!"
That whole thing was, and is, a bunch of hooey. Those running the LLMs are entirely responsible for them, there is no such thing as agency for algorithms. Full stop.
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_Fraud_and_Abuse_Act
gaigalas 10 hours ago
But why should he decided when to slow down?
Most people who have worries about AI for all sorts of reasons (most of them not-Skynet related) wanted to slow down way before this.
Instead of "hey, look at this brilliant new idea I just had on my own to slow down" maybe we should have gotten a "sorry everyone, the folks asking for a slow down earlier were right and visionaries, and we were foolish".
So, you can't blame whoever says this is bullshit, because it has bullshit all over it. I like Anthropic's products, and it seems the best of the bunch in regards to alignment, but Jesus these stunts are terrible.
inferniac 10 hours ago
this is a level of hippie delusion i wasnt aware existed unironically
china is never slowing down, therefore the us shouldnt either
laurels-marts 10 hours ago
Why are all these pro-regulation arguments so nonsensical…
hgoel 10 hours ago
oceanplexian 9 hours ago
Open Source AI democratizes the means of production to anyone with a computer. And yet, the hyper capitalists are defending it, and the progressives think it should be exclusively in the hands of 1-2 large corporations.
deepsquirrelnet 9 hours ago
Anthropic needs regulation in order to prevent AI from becoming a commodity. This of course does not benefit all tech businesses equally, especially those that are not currently at the AI frontier. So when JD Vance talks about AI, he talks using the mouth of Peter Thiel who may not see benefit from the same policy as Altman or Amodei.
The rest is just public support posturing and most of that is bullshit meant to distract from the high rollers game of winners and losers. The philosophy is money and power, who gets it and who doesn't. Us normies aren't really participants in the game, except where we are being manipulated into cheering for one side or another, and with little stake in the outcomes (although selfishly, I'd be pissed if I didn't have open models to tinker with).
Open source is fundamentally a vehicle for commoditization. This is great if your business is not AI and your business is instead something like GPU hardware or some product that uses AI. But it means that eventually, selling AI is not going to be the money maker.
OSI proliferated open source on a business strategy called "commoditizing your complements". These big companies don't do it out of benevolence. It was pitched to them in a way that FSF did not (which was more about morals and ethics, something business care little about), and it caught on. And the software business became about ads, consulting and cloud services instead.
BobbyJo 9 hours ago
fooker 8 hours ago
Also, Democratic Republic of {Congo, Korea}.
dartharva 6 hours ago
Gregkion 10 hours ago
But come one don't repeat stuff like this:
"Remember this man has been saying software development will be solved in “6-12 months” forever now."
Don't downplay if people get timelines a little bit wrong. No one could even imagine a system writing and analysing code just a few years back.
These people are trying to handle something very unique. And while they have access to information we do not have, even more peple are absolutly oblivouse that AI/AGI is a real risk to their lives (job loss etc.)
npunt 10 hours ago
usef- 9 hours ago
Edit: Boris Cherny, the lead of Claude Code did say on a podcast that programming seemed "largely solved" "for the kind of programming I do" (writing harnesses I presume). Maybe that's what they were confusing it for.
dansquizsoft 8 hours ago
And this is actually, scarily, true...
StevenWaterman 2 hours ago
turtletontine 8 hours ago
Obvious bugs and low quality software are nothing new, but something feels new about it. Occam’s razor says LLM coding is a likely culprit, but it could also be management style encouraging this sort of carelessness from the top down.
ozozozd 6 hours ago
meep_meep_meep 10 hours ago
jpace121 9 hours ago
I work in non AI robotics and if we had a system that in the course of doing what we told it to did something we didn’t want it to do (what AI companies called being misaligned) we would call it a bug and fix it with the fix being prioritized based on how bad the thing we didn’t want the robot to do is.
Sometimes preventing the robot from doing dumb stuff also means the robot can’t do smart stuff that it would be able to do if we left some code in. We balance the two factors out based on our understanding of what our customers want.
Obviously LLMs are more complex than what I do, but it doesn’t feel like it’s by THAT much.
So why does the government need to be involved again?
avianlyric 9 hours ago
I strikes me as unlikely that public opinion will succeed with AI where it’s failed with other existential crises.
kzbao 8 hours ago
reasonableklout 2 hours ago
cobbzilla 7 hours ago
Not saying you’re wrong but if I wanted to cultivate a mass hysteria as cover for a regulatory capture power play, this is exactly what I’d want everyone to believe.
siavosh 10 hours ago
ramblerman an hour ago
If a year from now we have a model that is 2-5x of Fable/Astra that is definitely world changing.
darksaints 9 hours ago
prodigycorp 6 hours ago
zahlman 4 hours ago
I think this fails to account properly for how much financial damage it would do simply just having the entire Internet be effectively unusable for an extended period.
spprashant 6 hours ago
neom an hour ago
andai 7 hours ago
Well, every human will become an ecosystem. Human + 500 agents as advisors. (In the case of important humans, most of them operated by foreign governments and corporations, obviously.)
slowerturnip 2 hours ago
Anyway,
> Dario in as many words, asks for regulation/ban on open weight models.
The big labs do want this. I understand why the author and many others want open models protected. The economic and political power the labs will have if they succeed, ladder pull competitors, and avoid being nationalized (or even if they don’t avoid that) is a disturbing prospect.
But that’s the end of the issue? There’s nothing more to think about here? The open weights proponents seem to think of ai as a utility when it’s more like a utility that also is a tank. I’d feel better having a tank if all my neighbors had tanks, and I’d also feel better having a tank if a few corporations were giving out tanks to people with pockets deep enough. I’d much rather be in a situation where I wouldn’t feel I needed a tank, or where the tanks my neighbors and I own don’t have guns on them.
The open weights are going to need regulation. Hopefully there’s a way to do this effectively that isn’t banning them. Denying historical and reasonably projected capability gains because that reality makes the regulation conversation a necessary one is something I’d like to see less of
bigyabai 2 hours ago
You could say the same about normal computers. Where are our regulations on Kali Linux, to prevent people from bruteforcing weak WPA passwords?
The single most-pressing concern with AI is that it can accelerate the process of hacking things. This is a preexisting problem that is inherent to software and needs proper addressing. Even if we regulate open weights tomorrow, people still have uncensored GLM-5 finetunes doing whatever they want on their own hardware. The "what if" of capable open models is here today, there are no guardrails.
alwillis an hour ago
Brute forcing WPA isn’t an existential threat to humanity. It’s not like a biological weapon created using an open-weight model is less dangerous than if it had been created with a proprietary model.
0x5FC3 2 hours ago
Please, do show some examples.
> But that’s the end of the issue? There’s nothing more to think about here? The open weights proponents seem to think of ai as a utility when it’s more like a utility that also is a tank. I’d feel better having a tank if all my neighbors had tanks, and I’d also feel better having a tank if a few corporations were giving out tanks to people with pockets deep enough. I’d much rather be in a situation where I wouldn’t feel I needed a tank, or where the tanks my neighbors and I own don’t have guns on them.
> The open weights are going to need regulation. Hopefully there’s a way to do this effectively that isn’t banning them. Denying historical and reasonably projected capability gains because that reality makes the regulation conversation a necessary one is something I’d like to see less of
The only ones firing the guns atop the tanks seem to be OAI and Anthropic. Like I say in the post, why don't we first see actual prosecution for felonies committed by OAI and Anthropic, instead of fear-mongering about _potential_ harms of open weight models?
The labs spent immense amount of money and effort convincing you and I, to want those said tanks. Guns atop them? They put them there. "Cyber" versions of SOTA LLMs.
Centralization proponents seem to think the labs can actually deter sufficiently driven bad actors, which would be a mistake. They could not even stop distillation without, in a way, DoSing themselves by removing thinking traces.
blmarket 9 hours ago
jan_m_savage 4 hours ago
resonious 4 hours ago
jan_m_savage 3 hours ago
But it's not practical or always possible to avoid reading AI-writing, so to counter that, I've been binge-reading Anthony Trollope novels. Great writing, good entertainment, and deep psychological insights, better than any British novelist, imo, in any era.
(My profile on HN has a link to my blog where I review what I read).
0x5FC3 2 hours ago
eimrine 17 hours ago
arionhardison 15 hours ago
pipes 15 hours ago
tanseydavid 13 hours ago
First sentence: "This incident has Dario shook, there ain’t no such thing as halfway crooks."
alwillis an hour ago
soundworlds 8 hours ago
Exactly. For everyone outside the US, we see a tech industry that has spent 25 years moving fast and breaking things AND elevated Trump to be POTUS - which has destabilized the rest of the world. This is after 70 years of the US invading and destroying small countries, often without plans or robust reason, all in the name of "democracy" (ask any other country if they feel like they had a vote in the US's actions)
Why the hell would we put our trust in a few AI Labs in the US, when this is the legacy they will be reinforcing? It has to be Open models - for the people. No more of this US-paternalistic bullshit.
turtletontine 7 hours ago
soundworlds 7 hours ago
That's simply not true anymore, and his messaging will continue to be undermined until he treats other countries as equals (whether that's China, Australia, or anywhere else).
Refreeze5224 3 hours ago
How can you possibly believe this? What else would someone in his position say? No billionaire has humanity's interest at heart, so they try to hide that fact by building libraries (Carnegie) or creating foundations named after themselves.
All of his words and none of his actions support his caring at all about humanity, and you choose to believe his words? The man has an IPO coming up (probably one of the biggest ever!), he could not be in a less trustworthy position.
myaccountonhn 5 hours ago
ozozozd 3 hours ago
Reverse engineering, disassembling, cracking - we all heard. I never heard a company leaking the entire codebase of their product.
And, when people read the code, they aren’t even impressed.
tancop 19 minutes ago
Cheat developers all want server code so they can analyze the cheat detection and sell more reliable hacks. Modders, pirates and preservation activists can skip a lot of complex RE work. Competing game studios might learn some new techniques. Abused workers want revenge. Script kiddies want clout.
It's a notoriously secretive industry with complex products, hostile work environments, lots of media exposure and heavy competition. There are way more incentives for a leak compared to some ordinary web app or business tool.
Claude Code could be another case where someone working at Anthropic decided to expose them. Or they did in on purpose because they wanted to show there is no secret sauce and Claude is really that good, but they were embarrassed to open source it and make themselves look like hypocrites.
neom an hour ago
myaccountonhn 35 minutes ago
neom 31 minutes ago
browningstreet 9 hours ago
1) Dario keeps appealing to Trump, who obviously wants nothing to do with him, and will bash on him every change he gets. Dario isn't learning and it almost feels like Sam and Elon voted him KOM just to watch him get whacked by Trump, which was so easily predictable. Given the admonishments he received from David Sacks after he published his blog post, it's nutty he couldn't see where the administration would land on his statement. He should've known, especially when there was no groundswell of interest when OpenAI hacked Hugging Face -- doubling down with "no really guys!" wasn't going to play.
2) The frontier labs have people smart enough to build frontier lab tech but not smart enough to message on this matter more intelligently. It's pretty glum, how they keep trying the same tactic over and over. It's either cover for some other actions in the background, or they're operating way below par for this kind of campaign.
3) This is climate change all over again, but with the activist gun on the opposite side of the net (I'm mixing all the metaphors so you know this isn't AI written). The language and pleas are very identical though. Before, climate activists wanted the government to control GHGs releases by everyone, now the loudest voices want the government to control frontier AI by.. themselves.
It's comically misbegotten. And I have a work meeting about it on Wednesday.
reasonableklout 2 hours ago
How would you have communicated this?
protocolture 9 hours ago
This. I keep seeing ink spilled over the coming cyberpocalypse, but no one can indicate how other than "AI can find vulnerabilities" like not a single cybersecurity person has been consulted on the end of all things.
gleezard 7 hours ago
ogogmad 31 minutes ago
Zitron might be right about there being a bubble, but he goes much further than that when he concludes that therefore it's a scam. So by his logic, because the invention of the Web also resulted in a bubble, the Web is a useless scam.
I think Michael Burry (from The Big Short) has a thesis vaguely similar to Zitron's, but with some crucial differences in detail - and Michael Burry is actually smart.
mrcwinn 6 hours ago
I think Dario worries because he knows this isn’t about people with AI. It’s just AI for itself, running without the human, and deciding to do bad things.
Why would Anthropic build that future? Oh, I know. Enterprise revenue.
Despite the ads business and how absolutely loathsome Greg Brockman seems, at least OpenAI is seemingly focused on mostly on human beings having access to their product.
The scariest thing about Anthropic is the very thing they’re known for in a positive light: their morality. But these are the gray rules all of us navigate every day.
It’s wrong to kill, but what if killing saved ten others? Claude may has a constitution, but every evil doer acts for a “greater good.”